Lets Talk Stocks

Pls share your trading ideas, this is a repost only;


TI -"One of the issues which we, as investors, face is where to park your money. "Safe" investments such as US or German sovereign debt, bank deposits etc yield less than the rate of inflation "


Walkup - "Holding a 10 year government bond yielding less than 2% has its own risks. The value of the bond goes down in the event of any interest rate rise and inflation"


I am going to deviate a bit and address these points, because these are good points and I like to share my perspective with some of the things I learnt over time as a private trader. There really no good place to "park' your money and just be passive, if your doing that then your bait to the bankers and the government, but there are multiple ways to manage your capital and get good returns, you got to be active.


Does anyone here actually have a US brokerage account? I for one don't like the HK stock market, because:


1) There is no liquid options market

2) Leverage is limited

3) Most ppl can only make money by going long, and not going short, there aren't

ETF's structured to make you money on a downward market. There are only "bear

or put warrants" issued by investments banks to bet against the ignorant public.


Contrast that to what I do on the US market


- Writing Put Options, for example I did this trade last month on a stock called Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), it was trading at $80, I wrote a $65 June 16th expiry Put (meaning if the stock falls to $65 or below by expiry I have to buy the stock), and for that I got paid 0.65 cents per share, thats (0.65/65 *100) 1% a month or 12% annualized! That means the stock have to fall 18.7% in a month, if it doesn't I don't take delivery and still keep the 0.65 cents per share! I did that on 10,000 shares, it paid me $6500 USD for 1 month exposure, a trade that took literally 5 minutes, beats the hell out of HK div stocks.


Secondly, I mentioned these ETF's before, these are as close as they come to a no brainer and a 10 bagger home run on your money, pls look into these!!!


1) SKF - Ultrashort Financials, if you think a financial crisis is coming that would be worst than 2008 and I think most would concur that the problems are not solved then this is the stock to own. To give your some idea of the potential, back in 2008 when the s**h hit the fan, this stock when as high as $1200 per share, and right now it is only $49.


Chk it out here http://www.finviz.com/ , just punch in SKF as the ticker.


2) Per TI and Walkup above, Bonds and bank deposits yield less than inflation, but this clearly a situation not sustainable, yields on 10 yr US Bond is only yielding 1.58% as I write, and if you believe it is possible that interest rate can rise in the future, then TBT (PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20+ YEAR TREASURY) and TMV (DIREXION DAILY 30-YEAR TREASURY BEAR 3X SHARES) are the stocks to own and sit on.


As Charles Nenner says "We are looking at a TBT's iShares that actually goes up if the bond market goes down. And I wrote a while ago that only if you think that rates will never go up anymore can you lose on this trade"


Again to give you some perspective, when bond were less than popular the highest point for TBT was $60, right now its at roughly $15, TMV was $518 per share, right now its only $53. The Fed is issuing more and more bonds to finance the government debt, now how the hell can something that is in ample supply be this valuable? This would be the short trade of the century. I personally will be doing these trade on leverage 1:10, when the technicals tell me.


Lastly, just have some knowledge of technical analysis, the fact is it doesn't matter what you or I think in this instant or anything about the fundamentals, it doesn't matter. The technicals and charts will tell when to get in and out, moving averages are important, and if your interested on how not to catch a falling knife in a falling market pm me, I can send you the video, don't have the link anymore.


Please share your ideas as well if you have any.

Using interactive brokers, i like their platform and they have access to most markets.


Currently trying to create a stable portfolio of dividend paying ETFs and US REITS.


Also gambling on a couple of junior mining explorers, i subscribe to a canadian mining newsletter to help understand the market and whats going on.


Previously i had only invested in HK stocks so trying to learn as much as possible about US and other markets before i really begin actively trading.


I saw an article about a company called Neonode (NEON:Nasdaq), apparently they pateneted a version of the swipe to unlock technology that apple use, before apple.


The article speculated that either apple or samsung would try to buy this company to help them beat the other in the current patent battle. as soon as the article came out, the stock shot up 28% but has since dropped down. I am keeping an eye on it, but there are other more sceptical analysts who argue ip and patent law is so complicated that apple may not need to bother.

What about buying a long dated 2-year call option on the Ultrashort Euro ETF (2xdaily movement) - ticker EUO? IT would give you more gearing and I can't see the euro being above parity in2 years time. EUO is about 22, option price 1.30 maybe, strike 29. I know it's a call but it's actually a euro put because the price of EUO increases as the euro falls. Anyway, I'm sure you know what I mean.

Agree, another more direct option would be to by puts on FXE CurrencyShares EuroTrust


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/seeking-profits-in-europes-coming-disaster-2012-05-21?dist=markets


In the mean time, I think the more obvious short would be Facebook, I don't think it will hit the floor until at least $22.

Aargh! QE3 now inevitable, euro may strengthen. I'm sticking with EUO as the euro is 'Meet the Fokkered' but have put in a stop loss.

When thismoney comes out of treasuries, it's going to be the mother of all stock market rallies. I don't have the nerve the remortgage the flat.

I was going to write more on stock tickers, but then came across this article.

Read the article and the slide presentation below, this is a newsletter Hedge funds and IB clients subscribe to, may be its just more scare mongering. But if and when treasuries fail, the US government thru its arm of the SEC can ban shorting treasuries and other instruments, in other words they can rig the game as they've always done.



http://goldsilver.com/news/the-end-game-2012-and-2013-will-usher-in-the-end-the-scariest-presentation-ever/

Now in America Movil (AMOV) and McDonald's (MCD). Have a small punt in Bank Mutual (BKMU). McDonald's is expensive but it yields 3pc (much more than treasuries) and is a great hedge against inflation and recession. Also, a household name in China. Got iut of EUO just before talk of QE3 so only made a couple of percentage points.