Using table: http://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/doc/market-data-and-statistics/monthly-statistical-bulletin/T0307.xls
"Residential mortgage loans in this survey are loans (including refinancing loans) to private individuals for the purchase of residential properties, including uncompleted units, but other than those properties under the Home Ownership Scheme, Private Sector Participation Scheme and Tenants Purchase Scheme. Mortgage loans to corporate clients are excluded from the survey. The authorized institutions participating in this survey accounted for over 95% of the total residential mortgage lending business."
The question is, who knows how many mortgages are held by corporates or shell companies?
I think in general numbers are a bit weird in HK.. Assuming worst case scenario, 803,277*1.05=$843,441,000,000HKD
then of all the 2.4M mortgages, assume 60% are paid off.. (960k outstanding) I'm still only getting to like $850K per mortgage which still doesn't make sense.
To get to a remotely reasonable number, lets say.. an average of 3.5M HKD per mortgage, I have to extrapolate to about 200-250k outstanding mortgages.. which would equate into about 90% of total households being paid off.. which is stupid.
EDIT: Just adding up the 'Gross Loans Made' column in the table, taking a rough view.. from 1996 -> Present.. I've got a sum of 1,447,383 gross loans made..
Adding up the money column, I get HKD$1,817,289,000,000.. Which gives us an average loan amount per mortgage of: HKD1,255,568.844 (which sounds ridiculous)
Using that average, we calculate the 803trillion before as approximately, 640k outstanding loans. That puts us well above the 60% ratio if we use 2.4M outstanding mortages.. roughly 74% paid off in full? That sounds even more ridiculous.
I wonder if anyone has any idea how much HKD we really have in outstanding mortgages?