I suggest a competition among AX users. We all give our estimate for the price of gold and silver on 30 August. Deadline for giving that estimate is 10 July.
Now the price of gold is 1,192 (36% down from the top), the price of silver is 18.6 (60% down from the top).
The winner has bragging rights.
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Higher.
$1300- $1400, would be my guess, and then above $1400 in Sept.
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Ed
11 yrs ago
Well... Bernanke has seen what hints of tapering do... so he will not be reducing QE ... ever.... surely that will be good for safe havens... including gold....
Prediction? Predictions are for economists and fools.... I don't do predictions.
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I find Fibonacci numbers very useful.
And they sometimes work amazingly well
Gold's Sept. 2011 high was $1921, if you take a fibonacci 61.8% of that you get: $1921 x 61.8% = $1,186
===
$1,186 was the Low, and may be an important Low !
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2276956/pg1
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Ed
11 yrs ago
I'll make a prediction - the price of gold on August 30 will be exactly where the Fed and the US govt want it to be.
Because they manipulate it. Just like they manipulate stocks and bonds.
Just like they spy on you and me and everyone else including Obama - and just as they record our every communicated thought - and store it for future reference just in case we step out of line - or we need a little convincing on things...
Illegal information gathering is manipulation - and it is power...
Paul Roberts explains specifically how the US uses PRISM information to control world leaders ....
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/07/01/has-washingtons-arrogance-undone-its-empire-paul-craig-roberts/
Does anyone still think the US does not manipulate gold prices?
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Ed, some time ago you predicted gold prices to go up to 5,000...
Ed, you say the US manipulates gold prices, stocks and bonds, but then you admire fund managers who make a lot of money. You mean they are collaborating with the government? Or they are able to predict US government manipulations? Or what do you think exactly?
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Ed
11 yrs ago
Jessie - I have no idea what will happen to gold - it could go up it could go down...
I would not say I admire fund managers who make money - I don't judge character by the amount of money someone makes - I don't know any of these guys personally of course so have no idea if they are to be admired
But I do take notice of comments of those who get things right consistently ...
Some managers such as Warren Buffett are nothing more than crony capitalists who trade on connections... a guy like Kyle Bass seems to make his money off his smarts...
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"a guy like Kyle Bass seems to make his money off his smarts..."
Haha. You actually believe that? Don't you know that the markets are rigged? You repeat it yourself all the time. But apparently not when Kyle Bass make money, right?
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Bass knows the markets are rigged, it is his primary thesis and the way he has made hundreds of millions. No one contests that.
Bass, however, is not a crony capitalist like Buffett is. That was Ed's point.
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I don't understand what you and Ed mean when you write "Bass, however, is not a crony capitalist like Buffett is".
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A crony capitalist is a person who is in bed with the government in order to receive preferential business treatment by utilizing the government's monopoly on force.
A businessman must please a consumer in order to make a profit - this is the beauty of the free market because in order for a transaction to occur, both sides must agree that it is individually beneficial (otherwise the transaction obviously would not occur).
Business relies upon voluntary action and mutual benefit, but government relies upon its monopoly on the use of force - government can force you to do anything no matter how much you do not want to do it. A capitalist must please the consumer in order to do a transaction, but a crony capitalist is someone who would rather use force to make the consumer do a transaction, and as such must turn to the government because it is the only entity with a monopoly legal right to use force.
Buffett has been a crony capitalist for ages. Just take a look at the businesses he invests in / owns and see how deeply they are in bed with the government.
Anyhooo, this is way off topic now.
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Ed
11 yrs ago
Jessie - can you google and try to find any instance where Bass met with Obama then soon after made a major investment.... I don't think Bass has ever met with Obama... so I think you will come up short...
Buffet has on numerous occasions consulted with Obama and other senior people before making huge investments in the likes of Goldman and BOA... without a doubt he is given reassurances that if he plays ball and helps the economy he will get a guaranteed reward.
Bass gets no such rewards... in fact many of his positions are shorts so there is no way in hell any government is going to help him - the Japanese govt surely must see him as the enemy.
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@ Ed - if he's short the currency he is their ally (at least as far as the currency is concerned).
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OK, thanks for the clarifications. But then I see the long-term investments of Buffett as a good thing. Bass gambles, and when you gamble against others with insider information, it's not fair, is it? Take tomorrow's (Friday) data that may push the markets up or down. Of course Bass knows them a couple of days earlier, so he is in a position of advantage, and as he gambles (because gambling it is) against all those who don't have that information, he wins. That's how he made his billions.
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Ed
11 yrs ago
I think Bass would be insulted if one said he gambled... he is a hedge fund manager... not a gambler....
Basically what he and his team do is take positions ... for example he might take a position that the Japanese yen is going to implode... that the country's economy is going to collapse.... I believe he has CDO's which are bets against Japan...
Of course if Japan does not collapse immediately he makes no money - he might even lose a little on that trade....
So what he does is hedge with another trade that does make money if Japan does not collapse.... so he makes money either way (ideally)
Now the real money (billions) are realized if the trade against Japan goes right.... if Japan blows then he makes a fortune ... he'll of course lose on the offsetting trade but if he'd done things right he won't care - because that will be relatively small money
This is what he did with the US subprime situation ... and he made billions... same with Greek debt...
I doubt Bass even looks at short term info or the short term stock markets... he is not a day trader (read gambler).... he is far more sophisticated than that....
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OK, what you described is gambling.
Unless I am missing something if you hedge a trade with another trade and you can't "make money either way" because the trades are priced to prevent you from doing this.
My point is that the only way to make money is to have insider information. I agree that the US subprime and the Greek debt were predictable, so insider information were not needed, but they are needed if you constantly make money with shares, gold, etc. Really he doesn't do that?????
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Ed
11 yrs ago
You could call it gambling.... but it's not like throwing $100 on red on the wheel... or pulling the handle on a machine and hoping for cherries...
It's more like he's a very good poker player... there is a whole lot more than luck involved...
Or perhaps a better analogy is that of a world class chess player... he is making moves in anticipation of what they thinks is going to happen on the board....
The litmus test is how often you make the right moves... and he has made some very good ones over the past 6 years...
A lot of things are predictable... I can predict that the EU is likely to break up - but I do not know when... you could go bankrupt trading on that outcome if it takes 5 years.... and if you run a fund your investors will all desert you .... you need to generate returns even when your major moves are not playing out...
This is extremely sophisticated stuff ... I am sure Remmy could do a much better job of explaining because other than a basic understanding I don't know a lot about this business...
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Still, I am sure the market is rigged. He is basically gambling (or playing poker or chess) against others, but he has more information than others, so it's not fair gambling. He does not deserve to be admired.
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If you have zero comprehension of a topic then it is best to not make assumptions and conclusions about it.
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Ok, thank you for the advise.
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Ed
11 yrs ago
The smart money is quietly buying more gold
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/comment/10163015/The-smart-money-is-quietly-buying-more-gold.html
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Buying "more" gold... ?
Gold went down 13% over the last 30 days, and silver 16%...
If HK housing had gone down by the same amount you would be having a massive hard on.
Anyway, I am thinking of buying, when (if) gold goes down below 800, and silver below 15. What do you reckon is better, as a keeper of value and future profits? The argument I heard before is that silver has actually useful uses, which gold doesn't really have, so silver is a better investment. What do you reckon?
Also, one comment on the site you linked to says
"There is a new process coming up for extracting gold. It's rumoured to be for gold mining the equivalent of shale gas. The thing is that it's expensive. But people seem to ignore that the earth is full of gold.
The amount of gold inside the core of the earth is so much that, if it
was deposited on the surface, it would coat the planet with 1 1/2 foot
layer of gold. When the planet was formed, gold 'rained' on the molten
earth for hundred of millions of earth from exploding stars. There is a
LOT of gold."
Have you heard of this? I hadn't heard of it. Did he just make it up?
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Ed
11 yrs ago
if housing went down as much as gold has i would indeed by turned on... and I'd be buying...
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I said:
"Higher.
$1300- $1400, would be my guess, and then above $1400 in Sept."
I am sticking to that, In fact, after all these days, many other market technicians have come round to that point of view.
Here's what Peter Hug says:
SENTIMENT SHIFTS
"Last week the blogs were covered with economists, bankers and official sounding individuals calling for gold to hit $1,000. Yesterday, the $1,400 number became the flavor du jour. Increased flows into the gold ETF’s, the oldish China story and the short covering in a thin market continue to underpin and fuel the short term run. For the bears, the danger is that this thin market has created breaks in short term resistance lines, which triggers program stops. This self feeding frenzy can perpetuate itself and cause once committed bearish analysts to flinch, which is what we are seeing."
===
/source: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hug/Hug.html
BTW, $1340-1350 is a key pivotal level for Gold, as this GLD chart shows:
http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/9922/fq68.png
That's equivalent to GLD-$130. And if gold can blast thru that level with good volume, it will go much higher IMHO. Perhaps $1500-2600, or more, by year end.
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Ed
11 yrs ago
“After this drop [in price] we have 90 days order logbook. So we cannot fill the demand we have at this stage.”
http://bloom.bg/16JoQG7
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In my experience, Hang Seng bank has always had some Gold coins, or Gold Taels to sell
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There's a nice surprise (but not a total shock, obviously.)
While I was sleeping, Gold "jumped the creek:, and pushed above Key Resistance at GLD-$130 / Gold-$1340-50
http://www.Goldstock.co.uk
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Ed
11 yrs ago
Two bullion banks have already been unable to make good on contracts ... they instead exercised force majeure clauses paying out in cash... canary in coalmine...
Hong Kong-based William Kaye:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/8/17_William_Kaye_files/William%20Kaye%208%3A17%3A2013.mp3
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Ed
11 yrs ago
UK gold exports surge tenfold this year
The UK’s gold exports have surged nearly tenfold this year as investor selling drives the bullion out of London vaults into the hands of Asian consumers.
UK gold exports to Switzerland, the hub of the gold refining industry, leapt to 798 tonnes in the first six months of the year, up from just 83 tonnes in the first half of 2012, according to data from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office.
The exports – worth €29bn and equivalent to nearly 30 per cent of global annual mine production – underscore the scale of the shift in gold ownership taking place as western investors lose their enthusiasm for the metal.
The UK has no commercial-scale gold mines, but London is the centre of the global gold market, with bankers estimating that some 10,000 tonnes are held in the city’s vaults, including at the Bank of England, largely by investors and central banks.
More http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/876af37c-08dd-11e3-ad07-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2cUvz6FEQ
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London will not be the center of Gold trading for long, if the exports continue
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Ed
11 yrs ago
"Here in the East, there is a desire to own gold that utterly transcends anything commonly understood in the West. It is hard-coded into the DNA of several billion people, who, acting together, will provide a strengthening bid for gold for decades to come. Those people are getting wealthier, and with their increased wealth comes both an increased need to protect it and an increased desire to hold it in a form they have come to trust. And THAT, dear reader, is gold.
It's simple.
The exodus of gold from the UK to Asia via Switzerland is no accident and no one-off. The surge in imports of gold into China through Hong Kong is, likewise, not a flash in the pan. Indians' desire to own bullion, jewelry, coins — anything golden — is not going away. Trust me.
It is time to put aside Western attitudes to gold and gain an understanding of how it is viewed by the real buyers — those in the East. Those who buy physical metal to hold and to bequeath — not those who sit at home in front of their computers, buying and selling paper claims on a metal most of them have never seen up close — are going to determine the future path of the metal."
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/never-the-twain
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GLD: 135.45 +0.55: 7.65 M : Equiv. to Gold-$ 1,403.3 :
It is good to see Gold back over $1400.
===
The $1,384 level is an important technical support point near term, which needs to hold to confirm Friday's upside breakout. From August 16-August 22, Dec Comex gold futures "coiled" within a narrow range between $1,384.10 and $1,351.60. As long as support at $1,384 holds, a minor measured move from the coiling action targets gains to $1,416.60 near term.
The recent rally move has attracted some ETF investors back into gold. "ETP holdings recorded their largest daily inflow since 1 January 2013 on Friday at 5.8 tonnes, with SPDR (GLD) rising by 6.6 tonnes," wrote Barclay's analysts in a research note.
===
/source: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18078&st=120#entry280503
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Wow, it seems like OTP will win this one!
Again, something must be wrong here. Gold's not supposed to increase in price.
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Why not?
The drop was engineered IMHO. And after its "purpose" was served, prices started rising again.
Many Hedgies followed the trend and got short at the lows, and they are now covering. Meantime, China kept buying throughout, and Gold has moved from the West to the East. As prices go back up, gold may be found to be in shorter supply if/when prices get back over $1600 or so. (But we may not see that until next year.)
If the normal seasonal pattern occurs, we may see a correction after a late Sept. or October peak.
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Ed
11 yrs ago
Hmmm....
The Chinese, through Shanghai, have already absorbed the bulk of all global mine production, if not all of it in its entirety. In July alone, Shanghai gold imports exceeded all of the imports for 2012. We also know that official Shanghai gold deliveries have accelerated since that time.
Last week I reported the September numbers to you and it was over 225 tons of gold being delivered. But as of today, for the 9 delivery days of October, we already have over 101 tons of gold delivered. This is an incredibly powerful and diverse underpinning for the price of gold.
Al of this is being reflected by the premiums, recorded deliveries, and what is paid daily above synthetically diluted gold prices. The Chinese don’t care what Goldman Sachs or any other brokerage shills say about gold. Instead, they are focusing on building their savings, real wealth, according to age-old ideas, and with a state-sanctioned 20% savings rate invested in gold.”
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/18_Maguire_Predicted_Gold_Surge_-_Now_Says_West_Is_Collapsing.html
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JJ,
So who won the challenge? (hint, hint)
It looks like the recent price drop, after the August run up, may be done.
Gold shares are now running up faster than Gold in the last few days, and that is often Bullish for Gold
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