Posted by
WIMdowz
10 yrs ago
Hello all,
I've been reading this forum for a while, especially the thread about the property market, but I had a few questions.
- I'm a NON-PR(will be hkpr in 3 years), married to an HKPR. Would I be affected by double stamp duty if it's still in effect by then? (This would be our first property)
- I've been following the media for the past few months now and most have indicated a drop of around 15-25% within two years. However, on this forum many seem to think the opposite. Is the media really that badly informed? are all those professionals which are quoted not thrustworthy? I find it difficult to make any kind of guess of where the market is heading. I am hoping downward as I have very limited funds and am just looking to buy a 650-750 sq ft net appartment in new territories (not yuen long) for lower than hk$4mill for personal use. Do you guys recon this could be achievable?
- I've heard of interest rates on mortgages going up because we are pegged to the usd. How much would this effect the innitial cost or property prices in general?
Any other information is always welcome. Thanks for your time =)
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Disagree with hkby. Timing is crucial. The opportunity cost of the deposit paid on an overpriced flat could be painful if prices fall. I agree with many than waiting is a no brainer right now. Prices simply cannot rise further (would only be hit by more government initiatives if they did) and the possibility of significant price drops is real. There really is no harm waiting 12-24 months and seeing how things pan out. You can even pick up some reasonably priced rentals to sit it out in some parts of HK as they come under pressure.
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@hkby Even if I wanted to buy right now, I simply cannot afford the down payment + extra costs like stamp duty, agent costs, etcetc.. At the end of 2014 I could afford a flat with a down payment of about 650k. The lower the better of course as I don't like the idea of being stuck with a 15k+ monthly repayment plan for 30 years >.>
On another note, I've been keeping track and looking into possible places to take up residence on websites such as midland realty, gohome, squarefoot, etcetc to check out prices and floor plans + what I can expect to pay for it. Since I have no previous experience with buying a flat, is it correct of me to assume those prices listed are just asking prices and can be discussed? How much lower than the asking price can people usually go?
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Go to websites like www.property.hk and search for what people actually paid for their units. In many many cases this is far lower than the asking price because many sellers are just kite flying. In an area I watch I know of 5-10 properties that have sat overpriced for over 5 years and they've risen the asking price over the years. the seller just hopes to retire early on the one mug punter that might come along. Tread carefully.
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Look at your financial situation, look at your personal balance sheet and importantly your monthly cashflows.
Now calculate the monthly cash outflow from your future mortgage at current interest rates. Re-calculate at interest rates of 3%, 5% etc. Do you have lots of cushion or would a minor increase in interest rates immediately put you into cashflow problems?
Personally I think it is safe to sit back and wait. Perhaps your inability to buy now will be a blessing in disguise, who knows.
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I think it is not prudent to buy now if you must pay a 15% tax.
My thinking is on many threads.
An alternative might be to buy a cheaper industrial property, that you can rent out at a higher yield than 4% - but only in an area with clear prospects of appreciation.
But do keep in mind that industrial properties can be harder to find, and harder to rent out than residential properties, so you will need to spend a long time (months?) in your search
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If you do a cash-flow model as Lucane01 suggests, I would also take into account how secure you think your job is. Outside of government employees, no job is completely secure so you need a bit of a safety margin.
FWIW, I view the HK property market as a poor value proposition at the moment - but don't listen to me since I have been saying that since 2010.
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"if you expcting huge differnece 3.9 asking and your bid is 3.5, there is no possibilities"
Correction: almost no possibility... especially in a strong market.
But in the present illiquid market, you can try lowball bids. For instance, you can bid $3.5mn, and tell the agent you can go higher, and see if you will get a counter. You might wind up with $3.62 or $3.65 million
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OTP,
Yes, HKers seem to not place much value in "cheerful" places or ones with good views. The difference between seaview / no view here is very slight, whereas in the US seaview land view (same street different sides of the road) is easily 2-3x.
Means for us expats we get to have something we place great value on at approximately the same price as all other options.
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My thinking is that it's very difficult to time the market, if one can reliably do this, he/she will be very rich already. Like other people are saying, if you have done proper analysis and have sufficient cashflow and securities. Then buy!
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I have bought and sold 11 flats here now, and I know there is a difference in prices for flats with a better view.
And it is especially true with respect to sea views.
However, there are buying opportunities, where if you can purchase 1-2 floors higher, you get a much improved view, and the view is not necessarily "in the price." And that can be especially valuable (to the owner-occupier) if you live there - as my girlfriend has come to appreciate.
So when buying, I always look for that "something extra" when it is not in the price, and I think I am pretty skilled now at finding those "cheap extra" when I buy. As a seller, I recognize that if I am in a hurry to sell, I may not get much for that extra feature. But when I am a patient seller, I think that I will get it. (we have had some offers that reflect the "something extra" but missed twice because we were pricing at a level where the agents would make a commission that was too small to be acceptable to the agent. And since we are very patient sellers, we would not cut the price below a certain level.)
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Thanks for the replies all! There's some good tips in here =) What I haven't seen answered yet though is whether or not the measures imposed by the government apply to me as I am not a HKPR ID holder, but my wife is a local chinese.
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Ed
10 yrs ago
I would expect that if you put the property in her name you'd be exempted
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I agree with Ed.
But check with the agent, and confirm with a lawyer before you go ahead
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