News Ed's Must Reads

San Francisco House Prices Plunge: -29%

ORIGINAL POST
Posted by Ed 9 mths ago

In San Francisco, the median price of single-family houses dropped by 8.5% in July from June, and by 14.1% from a year ago, to $1,460,000 million, according to the California Association of Realtors today.

 

In the 16 months since the peak in March 2022, the median price has plunged by 29%, or by $600,000 (red line).

 

The three-month moving average (3mma), which irons out some of the monthly ups-and-downs of median prices, fell by 2.6% in July from June and was down by 23.1%, or by $474,500, from its peak in May 2022 (green line).

 
 
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/08/17/san-francisco-house-prices-plunged-faster-29-in-16-months-of-this-housing-bust-than-in-the-first-16-months-of-housing-bust-1/ 
 
https://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/Utility/GetImage.ashx?ImageID=ed43abd1-7de7-4db2-acff-f9139dd4baeb&refreshStamp=0
 
https://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/Utility/GetImage.ashx?ImageID=bcb1ac25-5ddf-4f81-bad3-60938360aea3&refreshStamp=0 

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COMMENTS
Ed 8 mths ago
Home Sales Plunge Further as Demand Vanished at these Prices. Even Cash Buyers Pull Back. Supply Keeps Rising
 

Sales of previously owned homes (houses, condos, and co-ops) fell further, by 2.2% in July from June, to a deep-dismal seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.07 million, the lowest since January, which had matched the March 2020 lockdown low, which had been the lowest since the Housing Bust in 2010, even as the median price fell, as days on the market rose, and as supply rose to match the highs in 2022, and beyond that to the most supply since June 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors today.

 

Year-over-year, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales fell by 16.6%. Compared to the Julys in prior years:

 
  • July 2021: -32.5%.
  • July 2019: -24.5%.
  • July 2018: -24.5%.

What we’re seeing is that demand has vanished, and supply has vanished in equal measure because the homeowners who have a 3% mortgage are not buying a new home, and so they have vanished as buyers; and are therefore not putting their current home on the market, and so have they vanished as sellers.

 
I estimated that the entire housing market – buyers and sellers – shrank by 20% because these homeowners vanished as buyers and sellers at the same time. In other words, there is less churn and increasing supply from other sources (historic data via YCharts).
 
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/08/22/home-sales-plunge-further-as-demand-vanished-at-these-prices-even-cash-buyers-pull-back-supply-keeps-rising/ 
 

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