News Hong Kong Property & Finance

Transaction levels

ORIGINAL POST
Posted by OffThePeak 12 yrs ago
... a post CNY change may be coming...


(per posting on the Main thread):

A JUMP in Viewings - per SCMP


"More clients have asked to make appointments to view flats and I believe some of them will buy in the next few days." - per Estate agent at Centaline's Taikoo Shing branch.


Midland Realty said that it had scheduled 1,385 viewings at 15 big housing estates this weekend, an 18.4 percent increase from a week ago.

UNQUOTE


Also, A new site in Tuen Mun attracted seven bids, more than expected.


"Yesterday's tender centered on a 722,770 sf site at Castle Peak Road in Tuen Mun's So Kwun Wat. It attracted bids from Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land, and New World Development, Sino Land, Kerry Properties, and China Overseas.


Analysts had expected only four or five bids."


Better get some property, friends, or the market may takeoff without you.

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COMMENTS
OffThePeak 12 yrs ago
Here's LGMV in a classic post (similar to mine, above)


Posted by Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela (7 hrs ago):

====

Anyone now looking to pick up a cheap property has now lost their chance. It's risk on time.


WHERE?

The 3rd post on the new State of HK Property Market thread:

http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/145331/the-state-of-the-hong-kong-property-market-(4)/

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OffThePeak 12 yrs ago
(For the record here - as posted on the other thread):


AND SO IT BEGINS... Rates down, Transactions up.


Per today's Standard: "Secondary Market rekindled"

+ Some banks are reported to have slashed mortgage lending rates. BOCHK down about 0.25%, and HSBC down between 0.15% and 0.35%. Standard Chartered next probably.


+ In the secondary market, 60 flats changed hands over the weekend. That's up from 42 last weekend, and was the highest since Jan 2012.


This was predictable based upon seasonality and the "excessively bearish" sentiment. When will the perma-bulls here learn how to read markets, instead of just responding to market sentiment, and their "hopes" about market direction?

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Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 12 yrs ago
There is no secondary market because of the special stamp duty. Therefore no transactions. No one selling because of a) inflation and b) locked into ultra cheap mortgages. It's the mother of all HK property short squeezes.

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liebster 12 yrs ago
Loyd,


There are no transactions because the spread between ask and bid is too high. Plenty of people are trying to sell their apartment, but nobody will pay what they ask. Plenty of people are trying to buy an apartment, but nobody will accept what they can afford. Speculators are far less because of SSD, but they comprise a small part of the market, and certainly not enough to cause a 60-70% yoy drop in transaction levels. Inflation is higher, but there are better investment hedges against inflation than real estate. As for being "locked" into ultra cheap mortgages, most rates are only locked for a couple of years. For myself at least, a percentage point or 2 over one to two years would have at best a marginal influence on my decision to buy/sell.

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liebster 12 yrs ago
I am sure there are certainly sales to be made. A 70% drop means that 30% is still ongoing. What lloyd is attempting to do is explain the factors responsible for the current dip in transaction levels, which is where I disagree. This by nature requires drawing assumptions about the market in general.


What I meant by the mortgage not being locked is that all mortgages are linked to either Hibor or prime, and so the modifier has far less impact overall on the decision to buy/sell. In other words, if rates climb to 5%, the fact that someone is paying .7 or 1.7 is marginal to the discourse.


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bawlucks 12 yrs ago
lanny's, i think youre wrong on that. i check properties daily and the asking prices are definitely going down. for example, i saw an apartment that has been on sale for 6.5 for a long time now, go down to 6.0 this week.

you keep giving Ed crap half a percentage point, and then you go and say 90% of properties on the market are not discounted...

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Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 12 yrs ago
walkup. That's right. Oh look inflation is at 7%, I think I'll knock 33% of my asking price.

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bawlucks 12 yrs ago
did i miss something? who said youre going to get 33% off anything?


lanny's said that roughly 90% of the properties on the market are not discounted at all


Do you think that is true?? i dont, cause i follow properties put on the market very closely.


speaking of kennedy town... 3m will get you an ugly little box in an ugly little town. sure, there are the odd places in kennedy town with some windows and slightly high ceilings, but for the most part it's way overpriced according to common sense. and by common sense, i mean how much money you can get for a rental

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OffThePeak 12 yrs ago
(I tried to post this yesterday, but it did not SAVE for some odd reason):


LGMV says there is "no market." I think that is changing, at least according to an agent friend whom I have known for three years.


I agree that there is a 5 - 10% gap between the price levels that would bring a sharp and sustainable increase in volume. But buyers are getting restless. As they see rate cuts, they are gaining confidence.


My agent friend says that the number of sellers willing to drop their price by 5-10% is reducing. Anyone who does make a price cut like that is getting a quick sale. But he now thinks that the buyers are starting to INCREASE their bids, because they do not want to miss this buying window.


He though that bids would push up in the next few weeks. And he thought that sellers would stand their ground. His guess was that as the prices pushed back towards the highs, then volumes would shrink again. If that proves wrong, and the buyers come in enthusiastically, then he thinks we could see new price highs this year.


Those ongoing rate cuts, and competitive pressures between banks are going to help. Not only is there "pent up demand" from buyers, there is also pent up demand from banks that want to build their mortgage books.


So far, this is playing out exactly as I forecast 2-3 months ago. What I cannot forecast from here is how enthusiastic the buyers will be as we head into late Spring and summer.


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liebster 12 yrs ago
walkup, I have noticed a similar situation. There is a slight uptick in secondary sales, a slight discount in prices, but bank valuations have also ticked up slightly..which is odd. Anyone have a clue as to why banks upped valuations even though prices have declined?

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Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 12 yrs ago
We have had a couple of calls on our flat so there is some buying interest.

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OffThePeak 12 yrs ago
(for the record here):

Someone just posted on the Main property thread:

"bank valuations are going up up up. Mine up 10% in the past month."


Here's what the background situation for buying opportunity looks like:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wg1VKHxgUc

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OffThePeak 12 yrs ago
Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl : Tregun : Dynast : Clovell / IslHarb : ParkA : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : CaribC

03/04 : 96.69 : 94.28 : 11,591 : 17,531 : 21,662 : 16,760 // 9,029 : $9,937 : 11,244 : 14,269 : 18,960 : 4,751

02/26 : 95.15 : 93.14 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,449 : $9,638 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 21,504 : 4,808

02/19 : 94.38 : 92.10 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,580 : $9,784 : 11,160 : 13,048 : 20,058 : 4,770

02/12 : 95.01 : 92.68 : 13,132 : 17,364 : 21,455 : 16,600 // 8,659 : $9,874 : 11,210 : 13,107 : 20,148 : 4,768

02/05 : 95.04 : 92,63 : 13,988 : 17,384 : 21,481 : 16,620 // 8,576 : $9,779 : 11,185 : 13,078 : 20,103 : 4,790

01/29 : 94.47 : 91.91 : 13,981 : 17,377 : 21,471 : 16,613 // 8,770 : $9,663 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 20,031 : 4,730

01/22 : 94.75 : 92.17 : 13,994 : 17,392 : 21,490 : 16,627 // 8,762 : $9,654 : 11,152 : 13,039 : 20,043 : 4,871

01/15 : 94.31 : 91.66 : 13,986 : 17,383 : 21,478 : 16,618 // 8,762 : $9,655 : 11,146 : 13,032 : 20,032 : 4,667

01/08 : 94.16 : 91.25 : 14,014 : 17,417 : 21,520 : 16,651 // 8,780 : $9,674 : 12,250 : 13,060 : 20,075 : 4,630

01/01 : 95.47 : 92.41 : 14,080 : 17,499 : 21,622 : 16,729 // 9,135 : 10,399 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,378 : 4,631

12/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 17,513 : 21,639 : 16,743 // 9,100 : 10,147 : 12,431 : 13,252 : 20,371 : 4,610

12/18 : 96.81 : 94.03 : 14,104 : 17,529 : 21,659 : 16,758 // 9,109 : 10,157 : 12,436 : 13,258 : 20,379 : 4,620

12/11 : 97.10 : 94.37 : 14,128 : 17,560 : 21,697 : 16,787 // 8,950 : $9,980 : 12,379 : 13,196 : 20,285 : 4,619

12/04 : 98.13 : 94.30 : 14,189 : 17,635 : 21,790 : 16,859 // 9,016 : 10,054 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,131 : 4,834


Historical Data : http://202.72.14.52/p2/cci/SearchHistory.aspx

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