Stick with what you. You can't compare one country with another so easily as there are so many hidden costs - and more important liquidity I once rented out a property in Yuen Long and that was a pain - and I only live on HK island. Also depends on if you have the right to live and work somewhere.
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Ha ha ha ROI is higher. Funny.
I know 4 people with properties in Phuket, Samui and Hua Hin. They are getting absolutely killed because of the enormous oversupply in rental villas in all 3 places.
From what I hear you are doing extremely well if you can get 30% occupancy rents.
All 3 says biggest mistake they ever made. The villas are so empty that they feel obligated to stay in their white elephants every single vacation.
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A simple test for properties in any resort type area - see how hard or easy it is to rent somewhere similar online. In places like Phuket and Bali at most times of the year you have more properties advertised than you can sensibly spend time looking at - from which one can only conclude that people investing in that segement of the market are facing a high vacancy rate.
(Big cities are different of course.)
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If you are going to buy a rental property, then buy one that is close to jobs.
And make sure that your targetting (working) tenants will be able to afford the rent.
And be prepared for changes. For instance, if you are planning to rent your property to people who are receiving a Housing allowance, then there's a risk that those allowances will get cut, or the number of working people with housing allowances will get cutback in a recession. (Sound familiar?)
It is better to think of the "local market" - ie real people, spending their earned incomes, especially in times of stress.
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my husband is now in UK (South Devon) visiting family. he has been looking properties and said there is currently a strong demand for rentals because many young families and people have difficulties coming up with the initial deposit due to the economic climate.
i wonder however if that area is a good area to invest in.
London i think is better place to invest in. however, prices are steep...
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Look for a place where Property is available at a low multiple of earnings, where yields are high, and the job prospects are good.
I don't think this description fit London where knew property sales rely upon foreigners pumping their money in, with little appreciation of local market conditions
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I was looking at the UK but I was born and brought up there so I risk losing my non-domicile. If I am UK-domiciled, then death duties of 40% could wipe out my small HK property portfolio and my kids would have no where to live. Also, I prefer to buy where I can work and where there is a liquid secondary market with no strong tenancy laws. This basically narrows it down to Ireland, Cyprus (southern) and Malta for me - neither of which are that appealing. However could just opt for lifestyle and forget investment and plump for France. Cannot work in the US or Commonwealth countries outside UK. Have considered there but, in addition to the work visa problem, there are other problems. Australia is a real no no (too much land and junk and no level playing field for foreigners), US (interesting but too many overheads and don't want to get sued), NZ (the best of the bunch but too far away), Canada (I get nervous when people are nice to me). As an EU citizen, Amsterdam looks good (small manageable apartments, interesting place, convenient, English widely spoken, good law and secondary market) but it is almost impossible to evict a tenant so the flat would have to remain empty. In Asia, I can work in HK but can't afford to buy again. Singapore charges a 3% stamp duty plus and extra 10% in stamp duty if you are non-resident - though I think you may get residency if you come up with the necessary moolah - at least that used to be the case. Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines - certainly wouldn't buy where you have to buy in someone else's name. Japan and Taiwan - have earthquakes. The latter is very expensive and the former poses cultural problems outside central Tokyo. So difficult that actually considering buying a new Agile Property around Zhuhai for retirement. I can at least use my HK Chinese wife's name and can commute to HK. Even looked at that Chinese Estates development in Macau but good job I decided against as it has now been confiscated. Now, can you understand why Hong Kong is such a great place to buy and why it is so expensive here?
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@ Loyd - investing in physical real estate outside of your place of residence is usually difficult, risky or expensive for small investors like us. Not knowing the local market well enough is also a good way to get ripped off. This is why I have stuck with Hong Kong and New Zealand. That said, I have slighty regretted not buying in Singapore before the 10% foreign buyer penalty was adopted.
I wouldn't touch France with a barge pole - a combination of taxes and tenancy laws make it a complete non-starter for me. And that was before Mr "tax anyone I think may have voted for the other guy" Hollande took over.
Incidentially, New Zealand is closer than London and there is no estate duty.
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I actually owned a place in NZ once. Got out at a small profit of HK$20,000. Regret not keeping it now but my NZ visa had run out (the locals didn't complete the flat quickly enough for me to qualify for residency LOL). I also needed the capital to buy in HK. Actually just looking for a bolt hole in case the balloon goes up here. Also considered Alderney. My sister lives about an hour from Heathrow so they could at least use that - or Dublin - as a quick get-away place. Wouldn't rent it out.
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Luxembourg maybe. But the city is pretty dull. Very pleasant if you live out in the countryside - but I don't have a driver's licence.
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"Actually just looking for a bolt hole in case the balloon goes up here. Also considered Alderney..."
Has Ed convinced you to buy the air tickets yet?
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I'm still not sure where the doomsayers suggest we keep our money? Cash is depreciating on a daily basis. Bonds will get hammered if predictions of higher interest rates come true. Gold has no yield and, over the longer term, has not provided a real rate of return (it has also considerably underperformed equities, bonds, real estate and, in some cases, even bank deposits in many developed markets).
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I think at this point, it's really hard to manage a truly balanced portfolio. You have to either bet one way or the other. There's a few possible outcomes.
a) QE continues in some form or another, until eventually they're able to get their books in order and balance their budgets. The money somehow finds its way into good investments churning more creation of commerce and jobs. Somehow they manage to begin to pay back the billions (nearly impossible at this point? Haircut incoming?) but the world stabilizes. This case ends with a controlled moderate to high inflationary period. (7-8% YoY)
b) QE continues, but continues to prove to be useless. They exhaust all other easing vehicles, and nothing seems to be working. I see this ending in either a deflationary period (7-8 years) or a hyperinflationary period (3-4 years and possible madmax). Deflation is not good, but not as painful.. Hyperinflation could be catastrophic, if it invalidates the entire financial system.
I just feel that you have to bet on one side.. If you think a), then yeah, go ahead and buy property and equities.. if you think b), then you need to figure out whether you think it'll deflate or inflate.. in the case that it deflates, holding cash is best, or cash-like vehicles.. if it's hyperinflation, lord knows. Some people have said physical gold will be good, but I'm really not sure.. I think it all depends on at the end, when the dust settles, who is on top. If it's somebody holding a lot of gold, then gold will be the standard again.. If it's somebody holding.. oh I don't know, silver.. then it'll be silver, etc.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
TI: gold has out- performed most assets since 2000.... http://politicalmetals.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/dow-gold-silver-2000.png?w=600
Eldson - I am in camp b) and have looked thoroughly for hedges... historically precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have held value during periods of hyperinflation... if anyone can find others please post
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@Ed - I agree with walkup7 on this - the chart you posted is very disingenuous. It ignores dividends and chooses a start date which was at or near the then peak for USstocks and at or near the low point for gold.
A more valid comparison would be from 1913 when the Fed was created.
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"A gold investor who was unlucky enough to have bought at that $850 peak"
If he bought then, he wasn't "unlucky", he was stupid.
Anyone who trades commodities should know that after a market goes parabolic, it will crash. That is why sites like the following one were warning people to sell silver when it approached $50 last year.
(GEI - need link)
Of course, if someone just follows the herd, then they may be unlucky and buy the top. But smart individuals, and professional investors should avoid investing that way in markets late in parabolic blowoffs.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
TI: You said: "it has also considerably underperformed equities, bonds, real estate and, in some cases, even bank deposits in many developed markets."
I was not claiming gold was the be all and end all of investments... just that the above was not correct.
If you bought google or apple at a low you would have done well... but not many investments have done as well as this year after year since 2000... if you had bought at almost any point since 2000 you'd be well in the money - and in the event of hyperinflation (not an unlikely event given most Central Banks are running the printing presses red hot with no end in sight).... you'd have a hedge against that outcome...
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Price-Of-Gold.jpg
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Ed
12 yrs ago
And what exactly is a 'safe' investment in these precarious times?
The mother of all safe investments - US treasuries - is far from safe when the Fed is the buyer of last resort for 61% of all US debt
That cannot last - therefore it will not last. And imagine what happens if the US has to tap actual investors to buy their junk bonds - think about the interest payments on 16 trillion dollars at say 5%....
In the meantime you actually LOSE money inflation adjusted by sitting your cash in this 'safe haven'...
Gold has no yield but at least it doesn't guarantee you lose every day you hold it
You are aware that the bond market is manipulated... that the stock market is manipulated... heck even LIBOR is completely manipulated...
Yet you question whether or not gold is manipulated.
Here's a heads up - the entire global economy is manipulated - every single asset class is manipulated - don't think so - then just imagine for a moment what would happen to every single investment class if Central Bankers made an announcement on Sunday night
"No more printing of money - no more central planning"
Every stock - every bond - every property - every market on earth would crash come Monday morning.
Have another look: http://photos.mongabay.com/11/gold_price_568.jpg
Hands up if you wished you had put every single cent you own into physical gold in 2000...
(Ed puts both hands up)
I guess it would have been cooler to say one was a stock market bug... but being cool would have put you in the poor house...
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Ed
12 yrs ago
An excerpt from a newsletter that just arrived in my mail... seems the Chinese gov't is reading the AX forums...
In other words, China is divesting itself from paper assets and building a war chest of physical assets. They have also done this very quietly. China wisely keeps the actual amount of total holdings in strategic commodities off the radar. One of these assets is gold.
There are ways to track a portion of China's voracious appetite in the precious metals market. One of these ways can be seen through the recent imports of gold from Hong Kong: over 382 tons on the year.
This is why China wants to keep this accumulation very quiet. Nothing pleases them more than to see investors around the world run to the "safety" of US paper assets. This allows them to purchase more physical gold at a cheaper paper price. Their goal is to increase their monetary backing as much as possible (divest paper reserves into physical gold) before others realize what is taking place. China creates their economic plans based on decades into the future instead of bi-annual political polls.
http://www.ftense.com/2012/08/the-paradigm-shift-continues-slow.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ftense%2FsymR+%28The+Future+Tense%29
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Woulda coulda shoulda....
How about did?
I took a substantial position in physical the year before Lehman went down...
My only regrets - being too stupid not to realize what was coming and buying sooner .... and not buying more
And anyone who had bought between 2000 and 2011 would have been up huge... the graph basically slants upwards for 10 years ... no rocket science or luck at all involved... just had to pull the trigger...
Let's have another look at how the gold bugs... or shall we say the investors in gold made out...
http://photos.mongabay.com/11/gold_price_568.jpg
Wonder what's gonna happen to that graph as the world sinks into another global recession and Ben really turns on that money tap....
Keep in mind gold is still not even close to its all time high in 84
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Yes, that always worries me a bit when I see XXXXXX Bullion Co. on the side of buses in Hong Kong. Surely, if it was a great investment, the company would keep the gold it has, not sell it to ordinary punters, unless they think they're mugs?
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HKLEV
12 yrs ago
i think i get your message ed, since 2000 gold is up 450 perc and hk property is up 150 perc, so based on the fact that what goes up must go up, gold is a way bigger buy than hk property right? also you are long gold and short hk property, and no one ever talks their position so your posts are completely objective. or do i misunderstand.....
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While I am not a gold bug, I'll accept that there have been times when it would have been a great investment - the period from 2000 through to early or mid 2011 being one of them and the period in the 1970s after gold was freed from its then fixed link to the USD being the other. The rest of the post free market era has been an awful time to hold gold - as walkup7 correctly points out.
I have no idea whether gold is a good investment at today's prices but I am wondering whether platinum may be worth a look - it's at an historically low price relative to gold, it is trading below the cost of production of many mines, production is concentrated in South Africa and the recent bloodshed has highlighted how vulnerable that supply source is to disruption and there is the possibility that consumers may seek to build their own stock piles to guard against the possibility of supply disruption. Against that, the market has been in surplus for some time and there are fairly large stockpiles, in part because one sector of the demand side has been weak (the car industry).
Just a thought for those of us who worry about the continued depreciation of the value of their paper money.
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HKLEV
12 yrs ago
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1aa74e16-e7be-11e1-95e1-00144feab49a.html#axzz23yYkWkGb
ed, see the link above, the weakening in the global economy is resulting in lower demand for gold in some parts of the world, afterall as the global economy weakens there is less demand from end users for goldproducts, and most people i know would rather sell their jewelry than their home.....
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Ed
12 yrs ago
All well... but Central Banks are printing trillions and trillions of dollars... the economy is worsening... so they will print trillions more... and the economy will continue to worsen..
You don't print trillions of dollars unless a) you are truly desperate and b) you have no other alternatives.
The only asset that I am aware of that holds its value in times of hyperinflation is gold - physical gold to be more specific.
And the Chinese gov't continues to shun US treasuries and accumulate large volumes of gold.
That is the rationale behind my position - it may prove incorrect ...
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Ed
12 yrs ago
I have never said I bought gold in 2000 - I wish I had of course (I should have been buying after Bush stole the election because it was then that I realized things were going very, very wrong...)
I bought a year or so prior to the Lehman crash because it was at that point I concluded a perfect storm was approaching.
I have never pushed gold at any price - although I have posted commentary that projects gold to go much higher - I have also posted commentary that projects the price of gold to collapse.
You are losing money putting your cash into bonds because of inflation - inflation is far higher than the measly 1% yield on bonds... gold on the other hand tends in the long run to increase with inflation.
Of course there are potentially other investments that beat inflation but if you refer to my comments I was discussing bonds vs gold. However this 'sprinting in front of a steam roller picking up coins' is not of interest to me - I have a bigger picture in mind....
I am not concerned about the short term price of gold or the minute yields I might generate from holding other investments...
Because I think the most likely outcome is hyperinflation. And from my research only gold holds value in such circumstances.
That said, gold is not the only thing I am involved in - the purpose of the gold is a hedge against a worst case scenario. To put all of one's eggs into one basket is of course highly risky. I have other things on the go that benefit from the money printing (including this website)
If you disagree that's fine - you might be correct.
The fact of the matter is I could walk down to HSBC today, and clean out my safe boxes and nearly double my money.
But I will not - because I prefer to maintain physical gold as a hedge against the insanity of money printing.
Whatever any one does in this environment is (should be) very personal to their circumstances, judgement and expectations of the outcome...
I am not going to say I am 100% sure gold is the safest of havens nor am I 100% certain we will have hyperinflation... but I do know that central banks have never in history engaged in the activities we have seen over the past 4 years (trillions of printing money pushed into the economy at ZIRP - and still little or no growth in the developed world)
To ridicule anyone who is using it as a hedge is absolute nonsense (do you think the super rich are not hedged with physical gold???)
It is one of the best performing assets in the past decade - totally blowing away most all individual stocks and or stock market indices.
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Over the very long term, gold has probably more or less kept up with inflation but there have also been very long periods (decades) when the real value of gold has declined - the chart here shows the nominal and real prices since 1913 (when the Fed was created): http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Gold_Inflation.asp
Incidentally, I have seen (but couldn't locate just now) charts showing the return on gold, shares, long bonds and short term bills - equities did much better than any of the other classes by a very big margin.
Like most investments, the value at the time of purchase plays a significant part in determining how well (or not) the investment will do. By that measure, gold is relatively expensive compared to (say) equities.
However, one of the main motivations for buying gold is not to make an inflation beating return (as the charts show, it's record in that respect is mixed unless you have a longer time horizon than most of us) - the reason so many people keep a portion of their assets in gold is to protect themselves against times of extreme economic adversity - hyperinflation, wars, bank failures etc. For this purpose, gold can be considered a "good" investment if it is still there and can be sold/traded when all else has failed (even if the value is uncertain). That is one test that gold has passed over a very long period of history.
If I believed we were heading for hyperinflation (as opposed to steady but unextreme deflation), I'd be loading up on gold too. Even now when I prefer income generating real estate and shares, I am tempted to put some physical gold into a safe deposit box "just in case".
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Ed
12 yrs ago
A most eloquent summary of the upsides and downsides of gold...
And that is exactly what I refer to gold in boxes as ... 'the just in case funds'
I am sure most people would have been rolling on the floor laughing in 1913 and 1938 if someone had suggested global cataclysms were on the way (and were creating their own 'just in case funds')...
Trillions of dollars printed ... 0 interest... and no growth... the rules of accounting and capitalism thrown on their heads - something has to give...
Ben says come hell or high water he won't allow deflation... so I am assuming that he is going to make good on his promise to 'fling cash out of helicopters' if he has to...
I also think that that when Germany and the stronger EU nations are on the cliff edge that they will monetize big time...
These are precarious times we are living in... it will be interesting to look back on this in a few years when hindsight is 20/20...
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@ Ed - based on a lot of what we see around the internet, you are a bit of an optimist if you believe that hindsight is 20/20 .....
Actually, a lot of people did see WW2 comming - even if they underestimated the extent of the conflict and destruction
A further point on gold - it can be stolen, it can be confiscated (as FDR did in 1933) and it can be lost (DBS safe deposit boxes). When things go seriously wrong, nothing is guaranteed - hence the best thing (IMHO) is not a box full of gold, but a portfolio of assets which includes real assets like gold, backed by a good education, a good understanding of what is going on in the world, a current skill set and the right to live in a far away country.
I think I may just about have talked myself into buying some gold.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
TI: I've thought about the confiscation issue... the Chinese gov't (according to a research paper I read from Jim Chanos) is encouraging citizens to buy gold... and of course they are also buying huge amounts...
In light of that, can you imagine the PRC government trying to seize gold from their citizens :)
Agree re: WW2... same situation now... I think there is a tremendous amount of fear or at least uncertainty... but very few people are taking hedging measures... I guess that's the normalcy bias at work....
I on the other hand have witnessed the aftermath of the asian crisis traveling to Jakarta and Bangkok a number of times afterwards... I have also been to Haiti after the quake and Bahrain and Yemen recently... my normalcy bias isn't quite as normal... bad things happen (but of course never to us)
Softy... if you lived in Germany during the period of hyperinflation... and prior to that hitting... you converted say the equivalent of USD5M of assets into gold ... you could have bought up half of Berlin when hyperinflation struck...
As for the holocaust, if you were Jewish and you had a few kilos of gold... I am sure you could have bought your way out of the country... so I (and Gandhi) would highly recommend gold vs guns...
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HKLEV
12 yrs ago
softy, actually it doesnt...it decreases. as peoples salaries do not keep pace with infation an interst rates go higher and higher, no one can afford to borrow. in addition a much larger proportion of income goes on basic necessities such as food. only a fraction is spent on rent or mortgage payments. there are sellers who need cash for food and basic necessities, but no buyers as they need cash for the same reason. for once ed is right, but i wont do an ed and post lots of links but there are some very intersting articles with data to prove it out there.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
As HKLEV correctly points out housing prices (in fact most assets) collapse as people are forced to sell so they can eat...
More on what happened to various asset classes during hyperinflation in Germany
http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html
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Dear all
I think the best place to buy property outside Hongkong is Malta
because Malta has got best climate in world, it has slimest rainfall in the world
cheers
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Effects of hyperinflation in Germany:
Real Estate: Farmers and holders of urban property seemed to benefit if their property was mortgaged; the inflation soon wiped out the mortgage debt. However, they received no income, as noted above, since rents were frozen.
After the stabilization, heavy new taxes and the urgent need for cash forced most holders to remortgage their property, often more heavily than originally, so that their gains were illusory.
Still, those who held real estate throughout managed to save the capital thus invested.
However, those who sold during the inflation (often through desperate need for cash) fared poorly.
Because it brought no income, real estate sold at extremely low real price levels during inflation.
http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html
If anyone holds delusions that hyperinflation is anything but a complete and utter disaster (and that they might somehow hold onto their property until the economy stabilizes)... you may want tor read this:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_germanhyperinflation.html
You could have bought up half of Berlin if you had seen this coming and shifted into gold in advance...
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Hyperinflation is just another way of saying that the currency is being destroyed more rapidly than usual. When the currency is worth less, tangible things tend to be worth more in at least nominal terms - by definition they almost have to be and you are almost inevitably better off holding anything but fiat money.
However, (as Ed points out) there are soome big "buts" to this:
1. you have to be able to hold on to your assets - historically, expenses tend to rise more rapidly than income - in effect your cash flow gets squeezed. Price controls always make this worse as does an increase in defaults
2. increases in expenses tend to occur before you can spend your income - your incoming cash gets heavily depreciated before you can spend it
3. tax increases on the "rich" become popular with governments seeking to find someone to blame for the monetary conditions they created (not much different from now)
4. crime and civil unrest increase. Society turns on itself (a more extreme form of the war against economic success being waged in some countries today)
5. finding and holding a job becomes a lot harder
6. the currency of the country experiencing hyperinflation will depreciate compared to other currencies
7. other "emergency" measures will include foregn exchange controls, gold confiscation, tenant protection laws, trade barriers and immigration controls - all guaranteed and proven to make a bad situation worse
8. credit markets dry up - trade and other commerce contract, bartering becomes more common
Hyperinflation is generally bad for everyone except those who who have large debts - or extensive assets in places not experiencing hyperinflation
The early 1970s was a period of high inflation and was very unpleasant. A lot of people suffered. But it was not hyperinflation
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Is that a whiff of hyperinflation drifting towards us from the EU this morning... or is the HK sewer ... I mean harbour... worse than usual today.....
Germany backs Draghi bond plan against Bundesbank
Germany’s director at the European Central Bank has thrown his weight behind mass purchases of Spanish and Italian debt to prevent the disintegration of the euro, marking a crucial turning point in the eurozone debt crisis.
Mr Asmussen confirmed that purchases may be “unlimited” in scale, a far cry from the half-hearted intervention of the past two years, which failed to stem capital flight.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9488698/Germany-backs-Draghi-bond-plan-against-Bundesbank.html
If this is accurate then not unexpected... when you are looking over the abyss you do anything to delay the fall....
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"those who held real estate throughout managed to save the capital thus invested"
Many who held assets like apartment blocks found them gutted: with pipes, wires etc. stolen - and in very rundown condition. Because the tenants struggled to survive in any way that they could
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TI,
Your:
"tax increases on the "rich" become popular with governments seeking to find someone to blame for the monetary conditions they created (not much different from now)"
The government is a hungry beast, and they seek their revenues where they can find them. With so much wealth now held by The Top 1%, where else can they go?
The wealthy have benefitted from from a favorable economy, and favorable tax laws. Do they really think they can hold onto that wealth, when all around them are suffering? The only way they can, is by creating a police state that protects them. And that is what they are now trying to do.
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@ OffThePeak - we've had this discussion before and I very strongly disagree that the rich have "benefitted from favourable taxation laws" - most people in America pay no Federal income tax at all. The "rich" pay most of the taxes already. The only exceptions are the favourable tax on carried interest (which should be treated as income) and all forms of double taxation (which are inherently unfair - as has been recognised in several countries).
Basic problem - too many cheques being written against the incomes of too few people to be sustainable. Even if the "rich" paid 100% of their income in taxes without their being any decline in income (which there would be), it wouldn't even come close to bridging the Grand Canyon between government spending and givernment revenue. Of course that's been tried before in the communist states and the result was infinitely worse than the perceived injustices of today's psuedo-capitalist societies.
Let's also not forget that history has repeatedly shown that raising taxes results in reduced economic activity with all the negative consequences that follow for all members of society.
Final point: in absolute terms, poverty in America today is far less prevailant that it was in the egalitarian 1950s and earlier.
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I was in Macau at the weekend and a couple of properties caught my eye. Firstly, there are the apartments which are attached to the Mandarin and sell for about 9,000 psf which isn't cheap but not unreasonable given the lack of quality housing. Secondly, in the street which runs parallel to the road leading up to the ruins of St Paul's, I saw a run-down 4-5 storey building with some large art deco style balconies (one for Walkup). I shan't be buying there as I don't trust the system there (unless it is done via Shun Tak). Look what happened to Joseph Lau and Chinese Estates. Was quite tempted by that development but didn't want to rent to gangsters/gamblers in Sin City. Having said that, I know a westerner who there a while ago and has had no trouble at all.
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@ Softly - I think you are reading the table upside down. It is no accident that 18 of the top 20 are among the most open, free market (i.e. capitalist) economies in the world (the two exceptions are small oil rich countries benefitting from geographical luck).
At the other end of the scale, describing countries like The Democratic Republic of the Congo as "capitalist" is quite a staggering claim. There are some countries which have very poor per capita GDP which have a high degree of capitalism (e.g. Bangladesh) but you will find that, if you want to have higher GDP per capita and hence less absolute poverty then capitalisim is the way to go. If you have a look at poverty reduction strategies you will find that (among other measures), reducing red tape and freeing up markets to make it easier for people to trade and start business is regarded as an important tool - that is a move towards a more capitalist economy helps reduce poverty. The wikipedia has a basic summary: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty#Poverty_reduction (look under economic freedoms). This is supported by any number of academic papers as well as many anti-poverty agencies. It is no accident that a Nobel Prize for Peace was given to Mohammed Yunus for micro-finacing.
I'd suggest reading Berstein's "The Birth of Plenty" and Beinhocker's "The Origin of Wealth" - both contain excellent explanations for economic propsperity and the reasons why one economic model (capitalisim) has produced far better outcomes for its people than any of the alternatives that have been tried (communist, socialist, monarchist, theocracy and various forms of controlled economy dictatorships).
Believe what you want but history tells us that capitalism produces much better outcomes for most people than any of the alternatives.
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Softy. It's all to do with management. Poor management can wreck a company, a country or a family in a very short space of time
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Agree with both of you...
Just finished Why Some Nations Fail... difficult to summarize a 600+ page book in a couple of sentences but here it is:
Nations that succeed tend to be inclusive in that there are opportunities to prosper - and if you take them you keep what you earn - also such countries have participatory government.
Nations that fail tend to be extractive - small elites monopolize the society and take what they want... which discourages the average person from being entrepreneurial or even working hard... because if they have success it is often seized...
Review here: http://www.amazon.com/Why-Nations-Fail-Prosperity-ebook/dp/B0058Z4NR8
Softy - you bring up one of the issues that is a glaring weakness in the book...
Although the book does state that it is very difficult for a country to move from extractive to inclusive due to vested interests etc...
It fails to address the fact that inclusive nations have over the centuries done their best to ensure that exclusive nations do not become inclusive.... western nations have a long and brutal record of overthrowing attempts by people to create more inclusive fair societies...
Generally we have supported the elites and their cronies because we benefit from access to resources and markets at lower costs than would be available if representative governments were in power...
I could lay out dozens of example of this but instead I will reference Bahrain where I have seen this first hand http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/on-location/bahrain.html
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Ed
12 yrs ago
TI: 'the rich are paying most of the taxes in America'
No grand revelation there... of course they are paying most of the total tax collected... I can't be bothered to google specifics as I am in the jungle on a slow connection but I have seen articles where the top 0.1% (not the top 1%) own more than over half of the lower classes of america combined...
The polarization of wealth in America that we have now is as bad as it was in just prior to the last massive economic implosion in 1929....
Mitt Romney pays 15% tax... Warren Buffet pays a rate less than his secretary - that's an abomination.
Taxes were far higher under Clinton - and there was prosperity...
Taxes are far higher in Sweden and Norway and that doesn't seem to be causing problems for them....
Taxes were far higher in the US in the past and the country did not bankrupt itself...
I agree on cuts need to be made - gov't employees retiring with nearly 100% of their salary in guaranteed pensions is nonsense...
But what about the corporate welfare in America? That dwarfs the amount of cash spent on welfare... trillions in bail outs... hundreds of billions in tax breaks... etc.. etc... and what does the US get for this? Nothing - corporations laugh and send their jobs overseas...
On top of this companies like GE who maid 15 billion dollars a couple of years ago paid no corporate tax at all... Google 'US corporations pay no tax' - many articles on this http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/business/economy/25tax.html?pagewanted=all
Indeed the welfare bums are damaging the country... but the corporations are the real welfare queens with their lobbyists who help them extract trillions from the economy.
"Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society." Oliver Wendall Holmes
America is demonstrating quite well what happens to civilization when people don't pay enough in taxes... or when taxes are poured into stupid wars, welfare and the pockets of corporations...
I can see why Americans don't want to pay taxes - they get nothing for their tax dollar (decrepit infrastructure, bad schools, no medical care)....
But they do get a lot of bombs and missiles!
To help with the deficit perhaps the govt should sell the naming rights to bombs... you tick a box to pay an extra 100 bucks on your tax form and you get a photo of a bomb on a drone with your name stamped on it sent to you just before it gets dropped.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Here's some raw meat for the 911 discussion above... http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-21/former-marine-indefinitely-detained-psychiatric-ward-over-911-facebook-posts
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Softy. Of course it is down to good management. Look at HK versus China, Singapore v Malaysia. Mao Tse Tung was a great and patriotic guerilla leader but as a leader of the country his policies resulted in the death of millions of his own people.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
These are some serious Gold Bugs...
Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson made somewhere around 20 billion dollars betting against the U.S. housing market during the last financial crisis, and now he has made huge bets that the euro will go down and that the price of gold will go up.
George Soros put approximately 130 million more dollars into gold last quarter.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-21/jacob-rothschild-john-paulson-and-george-soros-are-all-betting-financial-disa
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@ Ed - agree - no shortage of "big" names buying gold at the moment. Of course that's not a guarantee - Paulson made big money out of the housing crisis, but he also took some big losses subsequently.
For those buying gold, what is the best way to go? Physical coins? Gold ETF? Notional prescious metals? Shares in gold mining companies?
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Point of mentioning Soros and Paulson is to debunk the myth that the only people who buy gold are some crazed hillbillies living in a shack in the woods with lots of guns, lots of ammo... and cans of spam... waiting for the apocalypse...
Yes Paulson seems to have trouble making money when he is not collaborating with Goldman Sachs to create guaranteed to fail products, getting them stamped as investment grade then flogging them...
Funny ain't it?
My preference is physical (there is nowhere near enough gold in the world to make good on paper gold should owners demand their product) ... I also own a piece of a small mine (was there over the weekend climbing into the shafts...)
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@ Ed - agree that not all people who buy gold are paid up members of the tinfoil hat brigade and with your comments regarding Paulson - I think he was damn lucky not to get dragged into some serious lawsuits.
Most notional precious metals accounts (and the ETFs) expressly state that the account holder does not have the right to take delivery (e.g. BOCHK). There are accounts which do allow for delivery but the ones which do allow for delivery that I looked at claim to hold the physical on either an allocated or unallocated basis (e.g. Perth Mint).
In terms of physical gold - I assume that Maple Leafs from one of the major banks are the best deal?
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Ed
12 yrs ago
I think with physical you want to take the cheapest coins - you probably don't want to be paying a premium for collector coins... I believe Maple Leaf is one that carries little or no premium...
I think Hang Seng carries stock (but to purchase large amounts you would need to open an account with them)... Kitco also is an option.
Point of interest - a friend of mine mentioned that gold coins are considered money by most countries - while ingots are not... he was of the opinion that if you tried to transport coins across a border (USD10,000 limit) you'd not have a problem - but if you had hunks of gold there would be a problem regardless of the amount.
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Kitco? How reliable are they? Website doesn't look that upmarket. I would stick with Hang Seng. However, with metals at 28 year highs versus equities, I would stick with equities.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Hang Send does not always have product...
I believe Kitco is a major player in PM https://corp.kitco.com/en/index.html
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@ Softly - agree. From the research I did several years ago and recently updated for physical only, the best deals I could find were:
physical: 1 oz Maple Leafs from a number of local or PRC banks (the bullion brokers and some of the other banks charged much wider spreads and the spreads on other types of gold coins were also wider than Maple Leafs and ingotsand silver/platinum wider again
paper: the best deal I could find at the time was a notional precious metals account through BOCHK. They offer gold, silver and platinum
The ETF and allocated/unallocated accounts were less attractive than the above options.
I have been told that realative to the price of gold, shares of gold mining companies are currentlt trading on historically low multiples - I have not done any research to verify this. I appreciate that gold mining companies are a very different risk reward proposition than bullion.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
I am sure Soros would be amused at being part of the 'tin foil brigade' .. note - he is buying at 1600 bucks and oz... China is also buying big time at these elevated levels...
Might I suggest both are just a little more informed that anyone who simply squeels 'gold bug!!!' when PM is mentioned... (even though gold has outperformed just about every asset class over the past dozen yrs...)
Comments from a Telegraph article...
Interesting perhaps to note that George Soros recently offloaded about a million shares and switched in to $130 million of gold. Meantime, China in the first 6 months of 2012 purchased more gold (383 tons) than Portugal's entire reserve holding.
Do these guys know something we don't?
Soros is on record as saying that the world is entering “one of the most dangerous periods in modern history ... a period of evil". Europe is confronting a descent into chaos and conflict.
In America Soros predicts riots on the streets that will lead to a brutal clampdown that will dramatically curtail civil liberties. The global economic system could even collapse altogether.
http://tinyurl.com/d3e3dut
http://tinyurl.com/7b8fsql
http://tinyurl.com/8ef99nr
When I read this stuff... I do get just a little uneasy....
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Let's see what else is being said about Crazy Old George the Gold Bug:
This is an individual who not only predicted the collapse of 2008 and took action to insulate himself, he also proposed the various fixes that governments in Europe and the US would eventually implement in order to stave off a deflationary depression. In his aforementioned book he suggested that central banks infuse the system with massive amounts of monetary expansion, but also warned that not injecting enough money would simply extend the onset of deflation and printing too much could lead to hyperinflationary currency collapse.
Based on recent activity in Soros’ US held accounts, it seems that governments and central banks have failed at those efforts to stabilize the system. As such, Soros is getting out of those companies which are most at risk should the financial system buckle like it did in 2008 and he’s shifting his assets into what may be the only asset class left standing when it’s all said and done.
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@ Ed - Soros has a great track record and is a very good thinker. Sure he does not not get it right everytime (nobody does), but he has been consistently better than most over a very long career.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
No doubt he doesn't get it right every time... but surely he is not to be dismissed...
Walkup - has anyone hear said that the only asset they have and will ever invest in is gold? Nope.
Has anyone said they sit in their basement and run coins through their hands and whisper sweet nothings 'I love you my pretty - I will NEVER sell you' Nope.
What's with the vitriol - could it be that you are sour over having missed one of the biggest opportunities of the last decade?
http://profitimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Gold-historical.png
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Ed
12 yrs ago
I received this about year before Bear Sterns started to implode... an amazing use of stick men to summarize the beginning of the crisis...
Shall we call this: Time to Visit Hang Seng Bank
hongkong.asiaxpat.com/Misc/MortgageCrisis.pps
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Yes it is volatile... and?
Face Book is volatile... HK property is volatile... US Treasuries are volatile...
It's an investment - it may have no yield but it's gone up many, many times in price in 12 years... I am sure anyone who participated in that has no problem being called a gold bug... he'd be laughing all the way to his safe deposit box...
Who has recommended buying at all times - places and circumstances? Can you find a single instant of anyone suggesting this as a strategy?
I personally am not recommending anything actually... I am sure there are plenty of other good options... depends on your circumstances... and as I have stated I am long gold... but it is by no means the only asset class I am playing...
Fact of the matter is it's been a great investment if you stepped in anytime after 2000... I am still up roughly double since I bought in...
And if... IF... we get hyperinflation it is the only hedge that will be of any use...
That is primarily why I hold PM... I don't care about yield... I care about not having a pot to piss in when central banks print to infinity - which they seem hell bent on doing.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Yes and that is fantastic.
But does that mean anyone who made a good call on property should be mocked as a 'property bug'...
Once again... great choice.
Least you forget... I did buy a farm in Bali in in 08... that has received offers lately of triple... HK property is not up triple in that period... so no bitterness here...
And how many people bought property after the Lehman crash?
Because if you didn't buy in that short window before Ben rushed in with the QE to save the day... you've missed most of the froth...
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Not so... I have posted plenty of articles in the news calling into question the staying power of gold... if we hit a massive deflationary period I think gold would likely plummet... but I think hyperinflation is almost inevitable at some point... and in this environment I expect gold to outperform all other assets...
(I have also posted loads of comments that further QE could drive property prices higher...)
The reason I am posting these other articles is because you continue to insult anyone who has invested in gold as if they are retarded...
I wonder if George Soros is wounded by your insults... how about John Paulson... I bet he doesn't sleep at night because he's concerned about being labelled a gold bug... Jim Rogers another hugely successful investor is also long gold... uh... another gold bug...
I congratulate anyone who had the balls to step into the HK market post Lehman when it was crumbling... I certainly did not as I did not anticipate that bernanke was capable of bailing out the world... I know of only two people who did jump into that chaos.... not sure if they were just lucky or if they anticipated the actions and implications of Ben....
I am the first to admit, the Bali buy was lucky... I was looking for hard assets to put cash into because of the uncertainty... and I was tired of breathing this toxic air...
I also congratulate anyone who bought gold in 2000 or anytime after that... good for them.
I know of one banker who worked for Citi in Vietnam who put USD750k into gold in 2005... I thought this absurd at the time... he clearly had some idea of what was coming and made a great move.
I do not insult them mocking them as gold bugs
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Softy.... property is a safe investment? It's an investment - like any other.... it goes up - it goes down.... how is it a 'safe investment?'
There is no such thing as a safe investment - particularly in this economic environment.
Ask someone who bought prior to the 97 HK crash how safe it is... ask someone in America who bought the line that 'you can't go wrong with property'
http://www.thomascrampton.com/wp-content/uploads/hkrealestate2008.png
Gold has proved to be a safe haven in times of hyper inflation throughout history. That is why I continue to hold it.
If you think hyperinflation is an impossibility then excellent. That's your call and whatever you do I hope it works for you....
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Property lost 70% of its value in the 97 crash... pretty much overnight.
Clearly I am not a follower - I was buying in 2007... Soros is buying 1600+...
The only reason I reference these people is because one can hardly call them gold bugs... just because one of their trades happens to involve gold.
To me a gold bug is someone who locks himself in his basement worshiping and fondling his gold and polishing his AK47 hoping for the end of days...
Useful to clarify.... I don't think anyone in this discussion is involved in such a 'trade'
Walkup - go talk to someone who bought gold in 1984 or whenever... too bad for them...
Then go talk to someone who bought Facebook's IPO... too bad for them...
I bought in 2007... gold is double.
How about a round of applause?
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@ Ed - please picture me here applauding both the Bali purchase and the gold purchase. You were a braver man than me when it came to buying in countries which had less than robust title systems.
Likewise - anyone who puts their capital at risk and does well or who can take a loss without whining about rigged markets and conspiracy theories deserves a measure of respect - Paulson trumpeted his questionable gains but he also made no secret of his losses and took responsibility for them. I'd like to believe that I can do the same. Gold, property, sharers, whatever - they are all risk assets.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
ya only about 15 yrs for property to come back... after the great depression in the US it took just about 3 decades....
wonder when Facebook will get back even? how about RIMM?
But then I don't concern myself with the hypothetical... I am up double since 07...
And if (when?) hyperinflation hits... I expect gold to do as it always has throughout history - hold it's value while every other investment class implodes...
If I am wrong then so be it.... I am hedged for the opposite outcome as well.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
I applaud anyone who bought property in HK 2008... standing ovation for you!
I don't applaud Obama because he is a stooge of the big banks - I see him as the greatest conman in history ... as are all US politicians in the crony capitalist USA... but then that's something for the Controversy forum.
No applause for Obomney...
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Since there has been so much talk about Gold...
Here's what I posted earlier today on another website:
=============================
Tom Obrien SOLD his Gold Shares yesterday - but I am holding on.
(He said):
"Gold shares couldn't handle the highs, they will head back down."
"They are building a low... but it may take three breakout efforts to get back on track to the upside."
"Silver went up, but 'died on the vine' ... without anough volume."
GDX / Major Gold Shares etf
http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/3426/gdx.png
HUI / Gold stock index:
http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/3043/xau.png
Personally, I don't think that patterns look so bad, especially for some shares like SLW. But I was tempted to sell some because of the Opening Gap up, which usually gets filled within a few days.
Tom seems to be betting against the Normal Seasonal pattern, where gold shares rise into early October
Meanwhile, Gold bulls like Ben Davies and Eric King are getting very excited by the potential for a big rally in Gold.
MP3 : http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/8/19_Ben_Davies_files/Ben%20Davies%208%3A19%3A2012.mp3
"On Gold, we are trend-ready right now."
"Costs are rising 10-15% per year, and the Gold mining industry have done a terrible job at setting expectations. The always over-promise and under-deliver. With costs going up, Gold is going to have to go to $2,000 an ounce quickly."
"Two bubbles which have not yet deflated: UK Housing, Australian Housing"
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/8/19_Ben_Davies.html
Rick Rule's interview is a good one too:
MP3 : http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/8/18_Rick_Rule_files/Rick%20Rule%208%3A18%3A2012.mp3
"I take comfort from the fact that people are not talking gold up.
People normally 'talk their books', and if they are not talking bullish,
then probably they have not bought yet. And there is plenty of room for more buying."
THAT's A GREAT BULL ARGUMENT, in a nutshell
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@ Softy - I fail to see how anyone could admire people like Marx or Lenin - the pain, suffering and deaths inflicted in the name of Maxisim, Leninism and Comunisim come close to being unrivalled in human history - more Russians died under Communist rule than German occupation.
Krugman is considered a laughing stock by many economists - his comments on the moral basis for taxation have been compared unfavourably with the broken window fallacy. Obummer? He's doing more damage to the American economy and the American middle class than Bush did. His only achievement of note is to make his predecessor look good.
Mandela I agree with - an inspirational human being.
@ Ed IIRC, HK property peaked in 1997 and didn't bottom untill SARS in 2003. Six years of down cycle and, so far, nine years of up cycle. I suppose you could say about 12-13 years to recover the 1997 peak but that would be slightly misleading as you would have to allow for net rental or net imputed rent which would knock a few years off the time to get back to even - for someone who had the misfortune to buy at the very top.
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@ Softy - Marx provided the frame work - bloody revolution and destruction of property rights and Lenin implemented began the process of eradicating Russia's middle classes - both economically and physically. There are some excellent histories of Russia which deal with the subject. Anything by Robert Service is particulalry recommended.
Krugman "brilliant"? Sure he is a smart guy but he spouts a lot of rubbish too and is basically an extreme left wing politcal hack these days. I've read some of his work and there is a mix of intelligent economic evaluation and disingenuous anti-capitalist, pro-big government bombast. He is the sort of nut who would have thrived under a communist dictatorship. Some commentary on his recors is here: http://blog.aynrandcenter.org/paul-krugmans-inconvenient-track-record/ I don't normally take the Ayn Rand Centre seriously but this one is spot on.
Great Depression - again I have read several books on the subject including JK Galbraith's The Great Crash which is probably the neates short sumamry of the causes I have come accross. Today is nothing like the great depression for a number of good reasons - among them awareness of the need to prop up banks and ensure ample liquidity in the economy (both of which were done by Bush II before Obama took office - Obama continued the policies of his predecessor). The absence of a gold standard and not introducing Smoot-Hawley type trade barriers has also helped. Just for the record, my views on Bush II are similar to my views on Obummer - they have both been terrible presidents.
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S.,
"Krugman: yes, many people don't like him, but he is brilliant. He dares going against the flow, and most of what he says is just spot on."
You are JOKING, aren't you?
Krugman has been wrong about almost everything - always.
Giving him the Nobel prize, did not honor him, it devalued the prize.
His rival, Niall Ferguson, rips him to shreads everytime they have a debate about economics, and NF is a mere historian.
Krugman is a joke on almost every website that uses Austrian economics, a discipline with actually predicted and anticipated the Crash of 2008, and the bigger one that is waiting in the wings.
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@ OffThePeak - well said!
I have a lot of time for Niall Ferguson (although his description of the causes of the 1997 Hong Kong property crash in The Ascent of Money looked questionable to me as someone who lived through it).
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@ Softy - I'll pass on further debate on Marx/Lenin and the like - your understanding of history and the roles these people played is very different from mine and from that of the historians whose works I have read. Leaving you with one link to Lenin implementing the Red Terror: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Terror
On Obummer - there's Obummer care for starters. A quick trawl of the commentary from a wide vaierty of sites will show that Obummer Care will raise the cost of providing health care services, impose higher taxes on businesses to the point where it is cheaper to simply pay the fine than to provide the insurance meaning fewer employees will be covered , increase the cost and reduce the availability of medical insurance obtained independantly from employers and reduce the extent to which private practitioners will take uninsured patients. Health care is the #1 concern of retirees by a big margin. The only beneficiaries are administrators and other paper pushers who will have more jobs - a lot more jobs. Here's a link: http://moneymorning.com/ob/5-hidden-obamacare-taxes-that-will-crush-the-middle-class/
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Krugman: smart but wrong this time round... more stimulus will not fix the US, Europe, Japan etc... more debt won't cure a debt problem... the only growth we've had in the past 30 years in the west has been debt driven... sorry Paul but that game is over - on the other hand austerity will not work either.
The only answer? Default.
Marx: got everything wrong about communism ... but pretty much everything right about capitalism.
US Presidents: I no longer follow because it is pointless. The US government is 100% owned by corporations and their lobbyists. America is by any definition a crony capitalist state. The president is an empty suit - he is the front man for the corporations - he is their puppet.
Getting caught up in taking sides GOP vs Demo is pointless and futile - neither of them are serving the people - they are taking care of whichever interests paid the billions required to win office.
Softy: I agree - American foreign policy is evil. They have consistently stood against the development of fair democratic societies - they support dictatorships because that benefits US interests (i.e. the dictators let you rape their country in return for keeping them in power). The US empire is simply neo colonialism at work - with better PR.
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@ Softy - your last response raises the issue of a few of the many attrocities committed by "capitalist" countries. You are right is saying that there are any more. Which is irrelvant to to point that was under discussion - that Lenin perpetrated the Red Terror which brought misery and death to millions. Belongs in the same circle of hell as Hitler, Stalin, Mao etc.
Obummer Care has been debated extensivley in the media and the overwhelming consensus is that it is bad news for the middle class. There's really not much more that can be said on this subject. The policy for our US employees will become a lot more expensive when it gets renewed next year and/or have reduced coverage because of Obummer Care. Needless to say, the firm will not be absorbing all of that cost so employees will be worse off.
Personally, I am just glad that I do not have to rely on it for my health care.
@ Ed - agree on the GOP v Dem issue - both parties are doing more harm than good - and much of US foreign policy. Iran/Iraq being one of the most scandalous examples. We'll have to disagree on Krugman.
Lastly, if I have learned one thing from hanging out here, it's that it is pointless to debate issues with some people especially those who resort to personal attacks and irrelevancies when they find their positions indefensible. Going forward, I will limit my comments and contributions to matters which are relevant to investments.
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Softy is part of the Axis of Evil. I we can categorically say, mystery solved.
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@ OffThePeak - thanks for the links.
I caved and brought a few oz of gold this morning - interesting that BOCHK said the limit was 5 oz. Does anyone know if this is normal?
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Oh no Trainee. Say it ain't so.
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@ Loyd - I blame peer pressure :-)
Seriously though, I really don't like leaving cash in the bank and it's getting harder to find bargains in the local stock market after a nice rally.
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Ed
12 yrs ago
Softy - can we say that QE delayed... rather than prevented...a Greater Depression? Nothing is fixed in spite of trillions of QE... the only change is that sovereigns are beyond the point of return re: debt to GDP...
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