I'm in the situation where I'm planning to move my family back to the States in about 6-9 months time, depending. I own a combined flat in Tung Chung and was originally planning to wait a bit until things settled down before we look into selling. However, an agent friend of mine already has a buyer lined up who are very keen to buy as it meet their spec. They're willing to do long completion (and even rent us back for as long as we need it, so we don't have to move right away) which helps a lot.
The big question of course is whether to take the bird in the hand vs. whatever's in the bush. I'm inclined to do it now because nobody knows what's going to happen in several months, and because it's a special unit it may not be in ultra-high demand. On the other hand it's the first offer and a bit rushed, my job situation is not 100% secure and there is a chance I'll need to stay in HK, in which case I'm stuck renting again.
I know nobody has a crystal ball, but interested in any opinions on going for it now vs. waiting until things solidify a bit. Thanks in advance!
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If depends on how sure you are about the job. With the job I would sell unless I was planning to move back to HK. Without the certainty of having the job, I wouldn't.
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Sounds like you are not sure if you are really going back to the States. I will tend to hold onto it.
This investor has special taste as he is willing to buy a combined flat in Tung Chung, knowing about the risk he is taking. If you refuse to sell, my guess is he will check with the agent from time to time and see if you are still willing to sell. I don't like long completion. You are holding just 10 or 15 % of the purchase price. If the market goes up, you will just want to kill yourself, for having committed to the deal. And if the market goes down, you will get scared as the purchaser may not be able to find fiancing if he needs one. What's bad is if the purchaser uses a shelf company to buy, he may just breach the contract and run.
Tony Measor always says if you are not sure, do nothing!
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If you know you are definitely going, I would take the money. At least that way you will know how much you have and you are taking the risk of a fall in prices off the table.
If you do sell, you should get a large non-refundable deposit up front and make sure that the purchaser is not a shelf company (or, if it is, that it's obligations are guaranteed by a living individual or a substantial company).
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Thanks for the feedback all. I should have probably stated my position better... it's almost certain that I'll go (whether I have a job or not... I was trying to avoid the whole "don't give up your job" complication to muddy things). My motivation is more rooted in family reasons than employment. I'll definitely buy a house in the States to hold onto.
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I personally think that it's the right time to encash. Risks in this strategy have been pointed out already. The worst case scenario is: you're holding cash and hyper-inflation comes.
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You are selling historically high to buy historically low - so is this a real question? On the off chance it is real, umm let me think, just a bit more... yes, decided (2 seconds it took) - S E L L !!!
And get a regular period of settlement and a signed tenancy agreement for the period after that you want to be there. Don't mix the 2 as you should take the cash now to go shopping in the US while prices are low! You need a willing buyer, and you have that, what else is there to think about?
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Agree with hkxxxpat, when the market starts crashing, you might at most manage to sell with a huge loss.
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