Truth Tellers & False Prophets

Truth Tellers & False Prophets


For the record here, I thought someone should look at comments on the Main Property thread, and see what sorts of comments people had posted. Some were "talking it down", but instead the Centaline Index has gone on rising.


The False prophets of AX - Rogues Gallery

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badseal (14 days ago)

Believe or not, prices are coming down. FACT

There is nothing you can do about it. FACT

If prices don't come down, more government intervention. FACT

You're taking this way to personal. Double FACT

. . .

OTP, you really need to take ur head out of the sand. Of course you won't see downside momentum if you don't open your eyes. Believe what you will, but the FACTS are there...just let it play out. Nothing you can do anyways.


Posted by badseal (11 days ago)

A few things: ...

3) Home prices have come down again this weekend. Was having lunch in Happy Valley and you'll see prices slashed...agents chasing people down.


Posted by elsdon (15 days ago)

Just some anecdotal evidence.. I've recently been looking hard at Olympic station for rental and purchase for the past 6 weeks..

. . .

For purchase, asking prices have come down 5-10% from last week. The agents I was working with have already called me to see if I'm still interested..


badseal (15 days ago)

Confirmed, prices have come down 5 - 8% within the first week. The slide will continue until end of Q1 2013.


TRUTH-TELLERS

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Posted by Ed (3 days ago)

a meeting with one of the property agents who advertises with us...

He says the sales market has completely stalled. Prices are also pretty much stagnant... no dip as of yet.


Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela (3 days ago)

There will be a buying lull as potential buyers expect a big drop in prices. This won't happen and there will be more moaning around Chinese New Year. Rents will rise and China's economy will start to recover.


spannermonkey (10 days ago)

prices were being 'slashed' following the initial announcement of SSD and tightened purchase requirements. 2 months later, those slashed prices had been amended to 10% on the upside. The same will happen this time around, but maybe to a lesser extent. There are no negative equity mortgages in HK and the vast majority dont need to sell....


HKLEV (14 days ago)

The abrupt introduction of the BSD and CYs threats of new measures may not have the desired effect in the short term as there will be people who will try to get in before they are hit by any new measures. And certainly no one will sell secondhand for the same reason....

Any market needs certainty to stabilise, CY has just introduced a high level of uncertainty, which will result in volatility and low transaction volumes.

One thing I will say is that agents are working harder to get new listings (both sale and lease). The number of cold calls from agents in the last few weeks is multiples of what I normally get.

Perhaps they just have more time on their hands.

More listings is easier to achieve than more viewings

OTP, again please take your head out the sand. Home prices have come down. Not alot I know, but it has a bit, as reality is setting in for those holding out for more. It's always better to lock in your profits 'while u can', as it is difficult to find an 'uneducated buyer' who just reads outdated reports trailing current conditions.


By the way, BSD is working as foreign investors have shifted to mainland property.


But it really doesn't matter, if prices don't come down enough in the short term, we will just introduce more measures. So please don't worry, OK?

As I have said, again and again : Where's the evidence !


The broadest indicators we have are the Centaline Index, and Bank evaluations. From what I can see : they are both up:


Week : CCLI : CMMI :

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11/11: 116.81 114.20:

11/04: 116.07 113.81:

10/28: 114.35 112.33:

10/21: 112.25 110.37:

10/14: 111.19 109.41:

10/07: 111.11 109.21:

09/30: 110.14 108.55:


It is becoming increasingly clear that you like fooling yourself.

I prefer you not try to fool others.

OTP, silly sheep. You ARE one of those people who only believe after it's all over the news. Those numbers you posted dont mean anything, not relevant now, and skewed, you are so out touch. Anyways, say what you will and most importantly 'believe' what you like, it won't change the facts.


BTW, there is no benefit for me to fool others. I only advise on caution and if prices drop even further, I again caution against catching a falling knife.

B-Seal,

You were sounding the same tune over two weeks ago.

And what happened? The market continue to drift sideways/up.


So what are we getting from you: pure spin.


It should be obvious to everyone.


Like I say: show me EVIDENCE, not speculation, and name-calling.

Your game has become transparent.

Bad Seal, you have been proven wrong. Admit it. There's nothing wrong with conceeding you were wrong (even Ed did it in the face of undeniable evidence showing that property prices has risen when he predicted they would fall). You actually get far more respect doing that, than sticking to a view which is clearly unsupported by facts.

You're living in a city where property is #1 and you can't find evidence? Look, just call up any agent and ask. It's very simple and if you don't know how, just go to the nearest agency down the street. I'm sure you can learn to do that. Also listen to local radio or news, there's great discussions debated daily.

BS - your argument is that because property is a popular topic in HK, prices are falling? What nonsense is that?


Property, and money in general has ALWAYS been a popular topic in HK. Pick any year - its always something HKers talk and fret about. Now look at the currently available market data. Property prices has not fallen at all, and appear to be steadily increasing.

Actually, I have checked.

I spent an interesting 30-40 minutes this evening talking to one of the local agents, peppering him with questions.


Here are my conclusions from that chat:

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+ The market is not dead, but it is comatose. For the whole of Olympic Station this month so far, only about 10 flats have been sold so far. That's a huge drop, of maybe 75-80% in normal transaction volume.


+ Prices so far remain stable. But very few buyers are coming forward. So if someone is in a hurry to sell, they will need to cut their price to get a buyer. Owners with empty flats are preferring to rent them out. And there are plenty of takers for flats, and rents are healthy.


+ Most buyers seem content to wait, thinking that prices will come down. If the latest stamp tax doesn't force them lower, they think the government will come up with more measures.


+ Meantime, those who are renting are paying out more than if they owned. But they still think the market will eventually dip.


+ The agents in the office I visited, have very few appointments with people who have any serious buying interest.


+ The agent I spoke to said he thought price cuts on new properties might be the thing to trigger lower prices in the market.


Okay, there's a logical argument for lower prices. But no signs yet of real cuts, apart from the odd panic seller.

I will have to concur with your conclusions. If you're looking to sell now, buyers may hesitate unless they are desparate to buy. Locals can wait it out, at the very least they have families here to stay with. As market fluctuates very rapidly and HK is a society that moves on news, i'd monitor weekly.


The problem will be timing. If prices come down substantially and makes the investments worthwhile, all the money on the sideline will just flood the market again prompting increases to BSD and other policies.

Most people who own flats now have already been through a number of roller coaster rides. The 1997 collapse, SARS, dotcom bubble, Lehman etc. Before it was external events hurting the market but now the government has turned on it. I think the vast majority of oweners just simply shut up shop when there is no buying interest. There are only long-term investors and end-users in the market now as all speculators were driven out by the Special Stamp Duty. These are the hardest people to buy from. You either hit their extremely high asking price or they wait another couple of years/decades. If the market looks like falling, they shrug and ride it out. A lot of people don't seem to understand this. The government, the media, analysts don't look at the fact that the housing market is now centred on these people. Capital gains tax? Who cares? I'm not selling. If you want my place, you'll have to pay that tax for me as well as hitting my price. Anyway, can't talk now, I'm going to yam cha.

It's a bit like trying to buy from "The Simpsons'" Mr Burns. "What? What? You want to buy my flat? How dare you disturb my afternoon nap. Well, it'll cost you a pretty penny, let me tell you. Smithers, look at the latest valuations and quadruple them. That should do it. Phone me back tomorrow and I'll consider."

Yeah, Lloyd.

That's what is meant by "strong hands."

The government has chased out the speculators, and that's about all that is left.


For those who want to buy:

Isn't that how you are likely to behave, once you have "taken the leap" and bought?


I am a potential "downsizer", and the problem that I am facing, is the flats that I would like to buy have gone up a bit faster than my own flat, so that makes me want to "sit on my hands" and do nothing

Yesterday's SCMP, Property section:


LUXURY and Mass Markets Diverge


"While prices have been rising in the mass market, and are likely to push up with HK's inflation rate, luxury sector rents have remained flat."


Hey, Whodathunkit ??


"In the 50 housing estates monitored by estate agency Ricacorp Properties, rents in October were found to have risen by an average of 1.9 per cent month to month to HK$25.17 per square foot - the highest level on record since it began monitoring rents in January 1997."


Mass Market rents:

http://tinyurl.com/HKrents-Oct12