Posted by
OffThePeak
11 yrs ago
China Housing in real trouble now
Scary chart:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saxena/images/jul122013_3.jpg
"The Tide has turned," says Saxena:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saxena/2013-07-12-The-Tide-Has-Turned.html
At this stage, we do not know when China’s property market will collapse, but we do know that its banking sector remains vulnerable to an abrupt downward adjustment. Furthermore, it is interesting to observe that similar to the US, China has also rolled out questionable ‘wealth management products’ and this shadow banking market is now worth US$2 trillion!
Needless to say, when China’s property market deflates, its non-performing loans will spike and numerous new investors will learn some very old lessons.
In our view, the ongoing deflation in commodities is a clear sign that China’s fixed-asset investment binge is slowing down and if things get ugly, the stock markets of the developing world will probably take it on the chin. Furthermore, the economies and stock markets of the commodity-producing nations (Australia, Brazil and Canada) will also undergo a painful contraction.
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Puru Saxena. Mr Asian high yield bonds - which, incidently have tanked recently. I've just bought a small flat in Zhongshan for 360,000 Yuan. Agile Property.
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You can't lose much, if you pay so little.
Why so cheap ?
What are the Incomes like in that area of China?
Residential Affordability
(Years to payoff Apartment : Price / Household Income)
Beijing------ : 28.1 years
Shanghai--- : 20.9 yrs
Chongqing- : 14.5 yrs
Wuhan----- : 12.9 yrs
London ---- : 10.8 yrs
NY City ---- : 10.0 yrs
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Loyd, why did you buy it? You plan to spend the week-ends there, or you are renting it out? I am curious. Surely you can't rent it for much, so why bother? Or is it a very nice place to spend the week-ends?
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Loyd is a savvy property punter, he figures in 20 years time it's going to be 10x more expensive.
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RMB 300,000, 58 square metres, studio flat. RMB 50,000 decoration.
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Agile just off-loading inventory I think.
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My wife was born and brought up in HK, however she has family links in the Zhongshan area.
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Still, why did you buy it? Holiday get away? Investment? Etc.?
I am curious, that's all.
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Relatively cheap. Could live there and take HK rent.
http://www.metroagile.com/agilegarden/flash/
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Chinese wealth seems to be OUT of the stock market.
If you chart the Shanghai index against GDP, it has fallen to historically cheap levels
CHART : http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/1502/l36x.png
/source: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17988&st=220
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Ed
11 yrs ago
"China’s crude imports fell in the first half of 2013 compared with a year ago"
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/07/10/chinas-falling-crude-imports-threaten-global-oil-demand-growth/
Can someone help me with this... how do you grow 7.5% when you are using less oil?
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I challenge the truthfullness of your statement Brendon. Can you give an explanation how it was achieved in such a short time?
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Ed
11 yrs ago
Oil prices were pressured by economic data from China Wednesday that showed growth continued to slip. The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 47.7 in July, compared with a final reading of 48.2 in June. A reading below 50 is defined as a contraction.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130724-708859.html
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