NEW Homes and LOCATION-ality

NEW HOMES for Sale, 2014 / LOCATIONALITY

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It is probably going to be useful to have this data easily available in a single purpose thread:


New Home Expected for Sale in 2014:



Developer------ : Proj.s : #Flats : Major Projects--------------------

Cheung Kong--- : # 5 ... : 5,235 : Mont Vert (1,350), City Point (1,717) LOHAS P-3 (1,648)

SHK Properties- : 7 -10 . : 4,277 : Riva (668), Yoho T-3 (2,508), Mont One (144)

Henderson Land : # 8 ... : 2,766 : Double C-3 (1,092)

Sino Land------- : # 5 ... : 2,180 : Pak Shek Lots (1,091), Kau To Area (973)

New World ------ : # 3 ... : 2,239 : The Austin (691), Double C-3, Pavilia Hill (358)

Kerry Properties : # 4 ... : 1,238 : Kau To Area, Ede Road proj. (43)

Wheelock & Co. : # 3 ... : 1,357 : The Austin, Tseun Kwan O Site (591)

China Overseas : # 4 ... : 0,470 : The Nova (255), Pak Tai St (168), The Green (40)

Swire Properties : 3 - 4 . : 0,444 : Mount Parker Resid. (92)

Chinachem Grp. : # 5 ... : 0,431 : Golden Gate (127), Jade Cove (86) BillionaireLuxe (37)

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10 Developers-- : 47-51: 20,637 - there may be some double counting



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Previously Launched : http://eng.28hse.com/utf8/developerfront.html


HOW MANY NEW HOMES was that ?



I called B-b-bullfeathers on the Notion that there is a Squeeze on Used Home Owners.

It is not on them, it is on the Estate Agents... who are now trying to talk the market down

> http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/153181/hong-kong-property-market-2014-forecasts/



The article in The Standard says:

"Around 18,000 NEW FLATS - 45 percent more than in 2013 - will be available for sale with aggressive discounts offered by developers." - Karen Chiu, in The Standard Property column today



NOPE. Not necessarily. They nearly always MISS TO THE DOWNSIDE on these projections.

I find it easy to believe that the actual figure will come in under 15,000 or even under 14,000.

And we started 2014, with one of the LOWEST numbers of new flats available for sale in years.


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"Locationality" RATIOS : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18964

Centaline Chart / May 2014:

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj235/jimolsen2/HKP-chart2_zps0596cd90.png

@ OffThePeak - thanks for taking the initiative in starting this thread. As and when, I get interested in buying again, a thread focused on recent launches could be a very useful resource. At the very least, the information will be much more accessible than wading through our usual debates on the future direction of the market and the relative merits of different districts in Hong Kong.

Tracking Supply is not easy.

This thread will make it easier.


Also, some people may want to comment on the New Launches, as they come out.

I do wonder sometimes how many of these flats are conceivably affordable by most Hong Kong people, must be a far smaller number. The high price ones might as well not be there.

It works, because most buyers will sell an expensive flat they already own, to buy one which is a bit more expensive.


It is like that old joke:


Mr. Jones: "Look at my nice $10,000 dog."


Mr Smith: "What you paid $10,000 in cash for that dog!!"


Mr. Jones: "No way. I paid for it... with two $5,000 cats."

It'd be nice to know what the lowest priced new flats currently available in each of the three main areas are. If anyone has noticed this, post up please, thanks.

I'm not sure what you mean?


We are currently looking at a flat in Kowloon, TST area, priced at under $2.7 Million.

Is that cheap enough?

We will probably not buy it, but we like to stay informed on the market, so we will view it.


It is obviously not new

I'm talking about brand new property, lowest price flats.

Yeah.

That would be something different.

The Visionary in Tung Chung has some of the cheapest NEW flats.

They sold out quickly, while the 3BR's have sold slowly


It is rare to find anything new priced below $4 Million, except maybe in Tung Chung, Yuen Long, or Tuen Mun

(the "old" tally for New Properties in 2014 was 20,637):


The "BUILDING BOOM" Is Not Uniform across HK


The number of private home completions in Hong Kong this year will reach its highest since 2004, the government said on Friday, further pressuring developers after a series of cooling measures forced them to cut prices.


The number of flats forecast for completion in 2014 is around 17,610, a 113 percent increase from a year earlier, according to the city's Rating and Valuation Department.


With a surge in new home supply and higher government duties to cool prices - which have soared nearly 120 percent since 2008 - competition to lure buyers could trigger even steeper discounts and further pressure developers' margins in one of the world's most expensive home markets, analysts said.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/04/hongkong-property-idUSL4N0MW0ZM20140404


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People need to keep in mind Two Things:


1 / Expected completions are nearly always substantially higher than Actual completions


( Projected completions for 2014: 17,610, up 113%, but are back down to 12,660 in 2015.


What is likely to happen is 1,000's of those 2014 completions will get pushed back.)


2 / The construction boom is NOT uniform across HK, as the SCMP version of the article states:


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+ Nearly 61% of the expected completions are in the NT, and especially Tsuen Wan, Tsueng Kwan O, and Yuen Long.


+ "Developers will prefer to release flats in the NT, and accept a lower price", says Mr.Lam in today's SCMP


+ "In prime locations such as HK Island, they won't cut prices and would prefer to sit on inventory"


Thomas Lam of Knight Frank (may be talking his book), when he says he expects a 10% fall overall, with a 15% fall in the NT. Does this mean he expects a 0-5% fall on HK Island, where his company's business may be concentrated?


I do agree with Lam that the locations matter, but HK Island's advantage is being eroded by new transport, and the migration of jobs outside the CBD in Central - on HK Island. The location of jobs (and maybe schools) matter more than the Hong Kong person's historical bias in favor of the Island.


The Ratios that I track, show how Robinson Place on Mid-Levels has slid, compared with the rest of the SAR.

LAUNCHING into the Easter Holiday


Taking advantage of a four-day Easter break, and some revival in prices and demand in recent weeks, HK Developers have launched Seven Residential projects, with more than 170 units for sale.


Included are:


+ The Woodside (Yuen Long): 60 units, from New World Development


+ Mount One (Fanling): 50 units, from SHKP


+ Chatham Gate (Hung Hom): SHKP / Shun Tak

+ Le Billionaire (Kowloon City): Chinachem

+ Diva (Tin Hau): Cheung Kong

+ 39 Conduit Rd (Mid-Levels): Henderson Land

+ The Long Beach (Olympic, W.Kowloon): 19 units by Hang Lung


I had a look at the units offer at TLB, and they are all D units in Tower-7,

with no change in pricing since the 24 Dec. 2013 pricelist:

http://www.hanglung.com/Libraries/Document_-_Hong_Kong_Properties/TLB_Sales_arrangement_batch_9_20_April_19_units.sflb.ashx


Previous launches at TLB have shown slow but steady sales, of something like 2-4 flats per week, after an initial surge when launched. This is pretty impressive to me, since the "new" flats at TLB were completed the same time (2004) as the "old" secondhand flats. The "new" flats are priced perhaps 10% over the secondhand market. You would think buyers would opt for the cheaper secondhand flats, but only 2-3 have been sold all year. The reason seems to be that banks finance the New flats against a bank valuation which is 100% of the purchase price, but for some very odd reason (a HL relationship?) the banks undervalue the secondhand flats, quoting them at perhaps a 5-10% discount to realistic market value. Very few owners are willing to sell at such very cheap levels, when near identical flats are being sold at a premium by the developer.)


The real losers will be those who buy the New flats imo, because in 3 years time I doubt the market will distinguish between "old" and "new", since both categories of flats were completed at the same time, back in 2014. But I sincerely doubt that any of the agents taking 3-4% commissions on the New properties are pointing this out to their clients. And certainly, you will need read this in the press, since it might p/ss off a potential advertising client (Hang Lung.)

On the MAIN thread, Ed says:

Hong Kong property faces supply glut in 2014 - Few Flat Supply at 8 Year High


Preliminary figures from the Rating and Valuation Department’s “Hong Kong Property Review 2013″ report shows that 15,820 new flats will go on the market next year, 16.8 per cent more than this year’s expected total of 13,550 units.


http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1212526/new-flat-supply-set-8-year-high


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Well, that sounds fine.

But I doubt that the "expected" number of flats will actually be completed.

Let's track it, and see what happens


Note that the estimates keeping coming... down, Down, DOWN ! ... just as I had predicted.


So who should you believe:

The forecasters, or the historical record of WHAT REALLY HAPPENS ?

City Point in Tseun Wan will be important to watch, says today's SCMP


+ Over 1,700 flats

+ Not expected to undercut the secondary market

+ First large-scale launch since Vision City (2006)

+ Many people already living in the area want to upgrade their environment


Guesses:

+ HK$8,000 - 8,500 psf-Net, for 2BR facing the cemetary (like Riviera Gdns)

+ HK$10,000 psf-Net or more, for large 4BR seaview flats