China Exports Crash to 2009 Levels


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POSTED BY Ed (2 mths ago)
China posts worst export fall since 2009 as fears of U.S. trade war loom

China's massive export engine sputtered for the second year in a row in 2016, with shipments falling in the face of persistently weak global demand and officials voicing fears of a trade war with the United States that is clouding the outlook for 2017.

In one week, China's leaders will see if President-elect Donald Trump makes good on a campaign pledge to brand Beijing a currency manipulator on his first day in office, and starts to follow up on a threat to slap high tariffs on Chinese goods.

Even if the Trump administration takes no concrete action immediately, analysts say the spectre of deteriorating U.S.-China trade and political ties is likely to weigh on the confidence of exporters and investors worldwide.

The world's largest trading nation posted gloomy data on Friday, with 2016 exports falling 7.7 percent and imports down 5.5 percent. The export drop was the second annual decline in a row and the worst since the depths of the global crisis in 2009.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-economy-trade-idUKKBN14X094

COMMENTS

Ed (2 mths ago)
China exports down sharply

China's export engine keeps sputtering as fresh figures have pointed to a considerable drop in shipments last year. There's likely to be more trouble ahead when Donald Trump takes office.

China posted gloomy data on Friday, with 2016 exports falling by 7.7 percent year on year. Imports were down 5.5 percent, the General Administration of Customs reported.

The export engine in the world's largest trading nation sputtered for the second year in a row amid persistently weak global demand and officials voicing fears of a trade war with the US, clouding the outlook for 2017.

The 2016 figures marked the worst annual decline in shipments abroad since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.

Uncertain future

Analysts agreed it would be tough for foreign trade to improve this year, especially if the inauguration of Donald Trump and other major political changes limited the growth of China's exports due to greater protectionist measures.

There's trouble ahead for the Asian nation if Trump makes good on a campaign pledge to brand Beijing a currency manipulator on his first day in office and starts to follow up on a threat to slap high tariffs on Chinese exports.

"The trend of anti-globalization is becoming increasingly evident and China is the biggest victim of this trend," customs spokesman Huang Songping said in a statement.

China has faced criticism from a number of its trading partners for issues such as repeated devaluation of the national currency and excess production in sectors including steel, with the European Union imposing anti-dumping duties.

http://www.dw.com/en/china-exports-down-sharply/a-37117675

Ed (2 mths ago)
World Trade has Increased by Less Than 1% Annually Since 7/07

There are fears that the world is on the precipice of turning back the clock on globalization. In some ways, the case can be made globalization has been retreating since the financial crisis. One of the strongest supporting data points of that argument is world trade data. According to the CPB World Trade Monitor, the value of world exports (volume * price) has increased by less than 1% annually since making a high on 7/31/2007 compared to more than a 5% annualized growth rate since 1991 (beginning of the data series). If we look at just volume data, the story doesn’t improve very much.


World export volume has increased at less than 1.5% annually since 7/31/2007. This is about 1/3 of the annual growth rate world export volumes has increased by since 1991. Even with extraordinary global monetary easing in the post financial crisis world, world trade has been unable to find the extra gear it hit during the pre-crisis era.


http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/?p=12619

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