Global Auto Sales Plunge




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ORIGINAL POST

Posted by Ed 3 mths ago
China's car sales plunged 11.6% in September, making for the biggest drop in almost seven years.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/chinas-auto-sales-see-biggest-drop-in-almost-7-years-2018-10/?r=AU&IR=T



Automobile production in Brazil plummeted by 23.5 percent in September, compared to the prior month, while sales slumped by 14.2 percent, the national automakers’ association said on Thursday.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/brazil-autos/brazil-auto-production-sales-plunge-in-september-idUKL2N1WK0QD

COMMENTS

Ed 3 mths ago
UK car sales plunge 20 per cent in September

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-new-car-sales-plunge-september-smmt-emissions-standards-brexit-a8567991.html

Ed 3 mths ago
The downward spiral in the US auto industry is accelerating, and there may be no improvement anytime soon.

According to a new report by CNBC, October is shaping up to be another terrible month for the industry, after an already abysmal September, as auto dealers around the country have been plagued by marked drops in retail sales and customer traffic in their showrooms.

Scott Adams, the owner of a Toyota dealership in Lee’s Summit, Missouri, told CNBC: “We are definitely seeing business pull back. September was off some, but this month our car sales are down 12 percent and our truck sales are down 23 percent." The report notes that the drop in sales was most pronounced last weekend

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-23/october-auto-sales-tumble-our-car-sales-are-down-12-percent

Ed 3 mths ago
“[China] The chief engine of growth for the world’s carmakers is turning into their biggest headache. In the past 48 hours, auto giants from Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. to Renault SA and PSA Group have pinned flagging profits and weakening sales outlooks on a slowdown in the world’s largest auto market. The companies spent billions of dollars over the past two decades setting up production and sales channels in China, as rapid growth saw millions buy first — and second — cars, only to see demand fizzle as the economy wavers.”

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/growth-engine-for-the-world-s-carmakers-is-becoming-a-liability#gs.k_1Zt_w

Ed 3 mths ago
“UK car output fell by 16.8% in September according to the latest data issued by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. The trade association said some 25,610 fewer cars rolled off production lines than in the same month last year, capping off a turbulent first three quarters as global trade tensions… September production fell for both home and overseas markets, down year on year by a respective 19.0% and 16.2%.”

https://www.just-auto.com/news/uk-car-production-down-17-in-september_id185278.aspx

Ed 3 mths ago
“Double Whammy of Rising Rates for Us and Our Consumers”: AutoNation

We knew “free money would inevitably end. Affordability would become an issue – particularly around new vehicles.”

It has been a tad rough in the stock market for AutoNation, the largest auto retailer in the US, with 242 new-vehicle dealerships, selling 33 brands, including Toyota, Lexus, Honda, Acura, Ford, GM’s brands, Fiat-Chrysler, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Infiniti, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, etc. After the company reported earnings on Tuesday, shares [AN] dropped 4%, and this morning, they’re down another 3% (despite the overall market which has been up sharply on both days). Shares have now plunged 37% from their 52-week high in January.

The problem is in new-vehicles sales.

Many customers are strung out by high vehicle prices and rising interest rates, and they’re switching to used vehicles, which AutoNation also sells – and that part of the business is good. But the new-vehicle business was lousy in the third quarter, compared to the same period last year:

New-vehicle sales fell 5.6%, to $2.93 billion.

The number of new vehicles retailed fell 6% to 78,300 vehicles (overall industry sales fell 4%).
Due to rising prices from manufacturers and a consumer shift from cars to more expensive SUVs and trucks, average revenue per new vehicle retailed rose by nearly $1,000 to $37,017.
New-vehicle gross profit (revenue minus what manufacturers charge after incentives) plunged 13.4% to $125 million.

Per new vehicle retailed, gross profit dropped 7% to $1,571.

More https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/31/autonation-hit-by-double-whammy-of-rising-rates-for-us-and-our-consumers/

Ed 2 mths ago
“The slump in China’s automotive sector dragged on through October, with year-over-year sales down for the fourth straight month.

“Auto sales last month were off 12% from a year earlier to 2.38 million, the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Friday.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-auto-sales-on-track-for-a-down-year-1541750936?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2

Ed 2 mths ago
“BMW has reported that its profit dropped by 27 per cent in the third quarter of 2018. In a statement, the German premium car-maker blamed currency fluctuations, raw material costs, the high cost of electric- and autonomous-vehicle R&D and US president Donald Trump’s trade wars for the fall in profit…

““Along with the rest of the industry, we are increasingly confronted with adverse external factors, the negative impact of which cannot be fully offset,” BMW’s Chief Financial Officer, Nicolas Peter, said.”

https://www.motoring.com.au/bmw-profits-slump-115544/

Ed 2 mths ago
This is unnerving on the heels of China’s 11.7% yoy fall for October car sales.

They can’t blame *this* on the new emissions tests .

“New car registrations in Europe slumped 7.4 percent in October on falling demand in Germany, France, Italy and Spain and as registrations of Audi, Nissan and VW branded vehicles saw sharp declines, monthly auto industry data showed.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-europe-vehicleregistrations/european-passenger-car-sales-slump-7-4-percent-in-october-idUKKCN1NK0LN

Ed 49 days ago
Indian auto sales drop 10% in peak shopping season

About 2.05 million new cars were sold in India during the period, down 11% from the Diwali season of 2017, calculated from Sept. 21 to Nov. 1.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/Indian-auto-sales-drop-10-in-peak-shopping-season

Ed 36 days ago
China Auto Sales Plunge, Face First Annual Decline in 30 Years

New-vehicle sales in China plunged 13.9% in November, compared to a year ago, to 2.55 million units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced today. This was the fifth month in a row of year-over-year drops, and the steepest year-over-year drop since January 2012, which had been caused by the timing of the lunar new year. November brought sales for the first 11 months to 25.4 million new vehicles, a drop of 1.7% from a year ago.

December is historically the strongest month of the year, and the November plunge bodes ill for December. CAAM, which is backed by the Chinese government, has been ratcheting down its forecasts for year-total sales, to keep up with reality. On Tuesday, given the plunge in November, it lowered its sales forecast for 2018 to a drop of 3%.

To put this sales decline for the year 2018 into perspective: This is something that has simply not happened in modern China.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/11/china-auto-sales-plunge-face-first-annual-decline-in-30-years/

Ed 28 days ago
t's official: auto market data has confirmed that the "boom" created by a decade of low interest rates following the global financial crisis is finally over. According to new estimates from RBC Capital Markets, the global automobile industry is heading into recession, as manifested by its first production drop in nearly a decade.

RBC analyst Joe Spak estimates that worldwide light vehicle output will fall about 4% in the fourth quarter after falling 2.9% in the third quarter. This will be the first time this number has fallen for two consecutive quarters since 2009.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-19/global-auto-industry-enters-first-recession-2009


https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/global%20auto%20industry_0.jpg

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Ed 21 days ago
Vehicle manufacturing in the UK slumped by 19.6% in November compared to the same month of 2017

The industry has now racked up six consecutive months of falling production, according to the industry group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Year-to-date, total car production in the UK is more than 8% lower than it was in the first 11 months of 2017.

If anything, the trend appears to be accelerating, with November’s 19.6% year-on-year drop in production roughly double the 10% drop registered in October. The chart (courtesy of SMMT) shows rolling-year car production totals — the total amount produced over the twelve-month period:

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/25/amid-brexit-mess-uk-car-production-reels-from-worst-november-since-financial-crisis/

Ed 12 days ago
Carmageddon for GM, Ford & Toyota: 3rd Down-Year in a Row. Industry Sales Below 2015. Hyundai-Kia Drop 11% in 2 Years. BMW & Mercedes-Benz Fizzle

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/04/carmageddon-for-gm-ford-toyota-3rd-down-year-in-a-row-hyundai-kia-sales-drop-bmw-mercedes-benz-fizzle/

Ed 9 days ago
Carmageddon in the UK: Auto Sales Plunge 12% in 2 Years, Diesels in Death Spiral. Consumers, Businesses, Fleets Cut Back

This is getting serious.
Sales of new passenger vehicles, as measured by registrations, dropped 5.5% in December from a year earlier in the UK, the second largest auto market in the EU, behind Germany. Sales in the full year of 2018 dropped 6.8%, “reflecting 12 months of turbulence,” and “the ongoing decline in consumer and business confidence,” according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

But in 2017, sales had already dropped 5.7% from 2016; and over the two-year period, sales were down by 12%. This chart shows the year-over-year change in new vehicle registrations:

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/UK-auto-sales-2018-12-change-YOY-.png

Sales fell for all three customer types: to consumers (-6.4%), to fleets (-7.3%), and to businesses (-6.4%). A lease counts as a registration because the leasing company buys the vehicle and leases it to the customer, at which point the vehicle is registered.


More https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/07/uk-auto-sales-plunge-second-year-in-a-row-diesels-in-death-spiral-consumers-businesses-fleets-all-cut-back/

Ed 9 days ago
China’s most globally high-profile and successful carmaker, Geely, is forecasting flat sales this year, a sharp slowdown from 2018 as the country’s giant auto market struggles with slowing economic growth and more cautious consumers.

Its sales started to slow in the last quarter of 2018, with a 44 percent drop in December alone, according to monthly sales data filings.


“We must lay the foundation for our survival, otherwise we may soon face a period of demise,” he said in the address posted on Geely’s social media last year.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-auto-geely/chinas-geely-sees-sales-growth-evaporating-as-car-market-struggles-idUSKCN1P114X

Ed 7 days ago
China Car Market Goes Bust, Boost, Boom. Repeat

Beijing’s planned stimulus policies risk prolonging the cycle of highs and lows in an industry where demand is maturing.

China is planning to give the world’s largest auto market a shot in the arm. Don’t be so sure it’ll work.

As the nation prepared to post its first annual decline in car sales in at least two decades, a senior official of the National Development and Reform Commission said late Tuesday the government would announce measures to encourage consumers to buy cars and other goods.

The statement finally confirmed months of speculation of imminent stimulus, sending shares of Chinese automaker stocks soaring Wednesday. China’s car market, which accounts for a third of global sales, has been heading down for six months. Passenger car sales dropped 6 percent in 2018, the China Passenger Car Association said later in the day. Retail sales of sedans, SUVs and other vehicles slumped 19 percent in December.



China's car market boom and bust has been fueled by government support:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-09/china-s-car-market-needs-to-end-boom-bust-stimulus-cycle?srnd=premium-asia

Ed 7 days ago
China Car Sales Collapse: First Annual Drop In Over 20 Years

After we previously reported that UK car registrations just fell at their sharpest rate since the financial crisis, the sharp plunge of auto sales in China has also continued: retail sales of passenger vehicles - which include sedans, MPVs, mini-vans and SUVs - in China fell a whopping 19% in 2018 to 2.26 million units.

In addition, SUV retail sales also fell 18.9% year over year to 965,772 units.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-09/china-car-sales-collapse-first-annual-drop-over-20-years

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/CPV_0.png

Ed 7 days ago
https://mk0mexiconewsdam2uje.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/vehicle-sales.jpg


https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/light-vehicle-sales-down-7-in-2018/

Ed 2 days ago
China’s Consumers Rattle Global Automakers as Sales Plunge
by Wolf Richter • Jan 14, 2019 • 0 Comments
Welcome to the Big Club of Saturation & Decline.
For the month of December, light new-vehicle sales in China plunged 13%, compared to a year ago, to 2.23 million vehicles, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced on Monday. Sales through June had risen 6%, but then came July, and now there have been six months in a row of year-over-year declines – with the last four months dousing any remaining enthusiasm about China’s consumers with double-digit declines:

July: -4.00%
August: -3.8%
September: -11.6%
October: -11.7%
November: -13.9%
December -13.0%

These declines pushed light new-vehicle sales down 4.1% for the year, to 23.7 million. This phenomenon of declining auto sales is new to China’s managed and pump-primed growth-no-matter-what economy. Data going back to 1990 show relentless annual sales increases. Between 2005 and peak-year 2017, new vehicle sales multiplied by a factor of six:

More https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/14/china-auto-sales-plunge-4th-month-in-row-2018-first-down-year-since-1990-welcome-to-the-club-of-saturation-decline/


https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/China-auto-sales-2018.png

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/China-auto-sales-2018-yoy.png



Apparently, stimulus works wonderfully... while it works.... easy credit... record low interest rates... extended amortization periods..... encourage people to buy new cars....

But... eventually ... the market saturates... consumers who already have an auto loan with years left to pay on it.... do not trade in their cars for new cars... because then they would have TWO loans to repay....

Ed 2 days ago
For US automakers in China:

GM’s sales dropped 10% to 3.65 million vehicles, including a 25% plunge in Q4. But its premium brand Cadillac saw sales jump by 17%.

Ford’s sales plunged 37% to 752,000 vehicles, including a December collapse of 59%.


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