China & India Auto Sales Spiral Down




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Posted by Ed 12 days ago

Here’s why. The strategy is a game changer with global impact.

Geely, China’s largest domestic automaker, disclosed that deliveries plunged 29% in June compared to a year ago, and that they’re down 15% in the first half. And it slashed by another 10% its already lowered forecast for deliveries for the whole year. This type of disclosure is now a regular feature of China’s dramatic auto slowdown.

New-vehicle sales in China dropped 9.4% in June, compared to a year ago, to 2.06 million vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). It was the 12th month in a row of year-over-year declines. For the first half of 2019, sales were down 12%. If sales continue to decline at this rate, they will drop to 21 million vehicles for the whole year, the lowest since 2014, representing a 15% drop from the peak in 2017 (estimate for 2019 in red):

 
 
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/China-auto-sales-2019-Est-2H.png 

COMMENTS

Ed 12 days ago
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/China-auto-sales-2019-YOY-Est-2H.png
 
 
 

Ed 12 days ago
Vehicle Sales Plunge amid India’s Shadow-Bank Debt Crisis & Contagion Fears
 
 

Shadow banks provided 40% of new loans for vehicle purchases.

Car sales in India, the fifth-largest auto market in the world, plunged 24% in June, compared to June last year, after they’d already plunged 26% in May, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers reported. Year-over-year declines have been dragging on for nearly a year.

Sales of “goods carriers,” which are seen as an indication of economic momentum, dropped 18% from a year ago. Goods carriers include vehicles such as these:

 
 https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/India-Goods-carrier.jpg
 
 
Scooter sales dropped 15% year-over-year. Sales of motorbikes dropped 10%. Sales of mopeds plunged 22% — “an indication of a gigantic slump in economic growth and decline in demand in rural areas,” The Week explained.
 
 
 In India’s first fiscal quarter, ended June 30, sales of all two-wheel motorized vehicles combined, by far the largest category of vehicles sold in India, fell 12% to 5 million units. Passenger vehicle sales fell 18% to 712,620 units. Within this group, cars fell 23%, utility vehicles 4.5%, and vans 25.7%, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).
 
 

“Probably the most prolonged de-growth phase we have seen.”

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/10/indias-vehicle-sales-plunge-as-shadow-banks-topple-clamoring-for-government-bailouts-amid-contagion-from-the-debt-crisis/
 
 

Ed 10 days ago

“Auto suppliers Johnson Electric Holdings and Sensirion slashed their earnings forecasts on Thursday, blaming a slowdown in car sales and pessimism about the prospects of a Chinese car sector recovery. The news is the latest to signal weaker global industrial activity…”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-suppliers-warnings/bleak-china-autos-outlook-triggers-raft-of-profit-warnings-idUSKCN1U6194?il=0



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