I need to transfer a large amount of cash from HK to the UK in around 2 months and I am trying to decide what to do. The current USD/GBP rate (weak dollar) is the highest its been for 26 years and there appears to be nothing on the short term horizon which will help a retrace. I'm looking for some opinions on whether its a good idea to hold and hope there is a recovery in the next couple of months or just bite the bullet now and do it before it gets worse. Any suggestions?
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Bush is a crappy President, but blaming the strength of the USD on him makes no sense, especially considering the fact the he talks in favor of a strong USD.
There is a reason the Fed is keeping the USD weak and when it is no longer of benefit to the US economy to do so, the Fed will take action to strengthen it again.
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Well that is fine, I don't wish to get into a political dispute either, but this is an economic issue and your understanding of primary reasons for a weak dollar are flawed.
The current strength of the dollar is affected far more by current interest rates (as controlled by the Fed) and by the extent of purchase of US debt by foreign governments, including China.
War spending is a relatively small portion of US government spending and an even smaller portion of US GDP.
Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of a weak dollar policy as it is directly harmful to my business, but as I said, the Fed believes it has a reason to keep the dollar weak, and so long as this is the case, they will work to keep it that way.
In addition, your assertion that the dollar has had a precipitous fall since Bush's second term is factually incorrect. The fall his first term was considerably greater than that in his second term and actually saw a significant increase in strength from 05 to 06.
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DA
19 yrs ago
forget this political drivel - this person wants some advice on what to do - I would bite the bullet now... I could go into the economic arguments why - but don't expect to benefit by holding on for 2 months.
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DA, similar thinking, however I'll think I'll hedge a bit and do it in piece meal.
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DA
19 yrs ago
this was someone asking for suggestions/opinions from other punters on this site - do you think they would be stupid enough to take anybody's opinion on this forum as "professional advice"?
but anyone can see it's not as simple as a toss of a coin as you say
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I spread my fx purchases out if the rate is poor. If it is good at the time, then I transfer more. I have a longer time horizon than you, but over the coming two months, even longer if you can afford to wait, I'd exchange funds every two weeks. If you have HSBC account or something here that has multiple currencies, it is quite easy. Can use www.xe.com to check rates and www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory for historic rates to see trends, including most recent, far more easily.
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