Does AsiaXPAT Influence Hong Kong's Property Market?

It's well known that word of mouth is extremely powerful


I would suggest that advice forums are in fact far more powerful than word of mouth because the discussions here are viewed by thousands who then extend them to conversations outside of this online environment.


If we look at one of the most viewed threads on the site - the one discussing HK Property Market correction - we are now approaching 8000 views - a number of perspectives have been contributed most of which would appear to indicate the market is set for a tumble.


No doubt these comments are being discussed over the dinner table, at dinner parties, over golf matches and so on just like any rumours might be...


And like a snowball things can quickly escalate...


Food for thought - do you think that this message board has a significant impact on what happens in the HK property market?



Coincidentally during Sars a close friend of mine who is very senior in pharma contacted me and urged me to buy tamiflu because it was the only line of defence at the time... I posted these comments on our womens forum (a hugely popular forum I might add) and within days of that tamiflu was no longer available in HK due to sudden huge demand... There's no evidence that my posting of these comments caused this but one might think there is a connection - all it takes is something to get started, and pardon the pun, but the viral nature of the internet can spread a rumour at lightening speed... I can imagine readers of that forum firing off the comments to friends and family (I certainly did...)

Our unique visitors per month for the HK site run as high as 250,000 - and the majority of them are residing in HK... also our recent demographic survey indicates 40% of our users hold HK passports... 70% of them indicate they are professionals (lawyers, bankers, doctors, etc...), CEO, MD or Director levels...


No doubt a certain segment of the HK population has no idea the site exists - however penetration into the affluent sections of both the expat and english speaking chinese sector of society is significant.


As for Tamiflu there was nothing in the papers at the time - HK or elsewhere... I distinctly recall the story hitting the main papers a couple of weeks after the publication of the discussions with my friend... and after the fact that HK pharmacies were already out of stock.... Obviously this is not scientific but at the time I thought it was an interesting coincidence (which was pointed out to me by a friend in HK who was unable to get the drug and gave me the gears about what he thought was the cause for the panic buying...)


To clarify the title of this thread (which was meant to grab attention as opposed to toot the AX horn...) the comment is more related to the medium of the internet (using AX as an example) of how opinions can be shaped and rumours disseminated very quickly through advice-based forums such as our Hong Kong Property Advice Forum...

I don't think message boards can influence the property market too much, (or much else to be honest) property is too illiquid a market and the supply and demand for property require much more for changes to occur and effect either a single transaction or the number of transactions in the broader market.


Its more likely to affect the stock market than the property market and it did in America during the tech boom at the start of the decade, but that also involved market manipulation, someone would post positive or negative information on a board and then bid or offer accordingly. During that kind of boom though any information can affect prices no matter what the source, whether it comes from an internet message board or you hear it from the person working behind the counter at McDonalds


Personally I think the effects of the internet are overrated in general, it is a social phenomena that much there is no question, look at the amount Obama has raised over the internet or the marches that were in Columbia to protest the Farc, organised through facebook. But for word of mouth to actually have real impact for the most it needs to come from a source of authority, i.e. someone whose opinion you respect, and there is too much crap on the internet that in my view information from the internet comes with a healthy discount. If the view is backed up by someone you know in real life, then there is some credibility. Thats just my opinion I am sure others see things differently.

Very difficult to prove one way or another... One thing though (and Al Gore in his book Assault on Reason claims the interactivity of the net will save us from totalitarianism...) unlike most other media that allows you no interaction (particularly TV) the internet allows people to question what they read and interact with each other. So therefore it is much more a thinking medium.


Further to this, the editorial of most if not all media is biased so the bias is rammed down your throat usually without dissenting opinions being presented from an opposing bias.


With online, you get a wide variety of perspectives often from very bright people - which allows even those who choose to absorb rather than participate actively to often see the full spectrum of opinion that would not otherwise be available without tuning into many different news sources...


Assuming the traffic is very substantial I suspect that the internet, because it has the ability to preach to the unconverted due to the presence of the mix of biases on one interactive media challenges people to see the other side.


Property for instance - if enough logical arguments are made for a crash, I think if enough people read that information it will influence their opinion and if spread wide and far, it can be the catalyst for taking a market down.


If you have a look at product marketing - how does a product suddenly get 'hot' - often its all related to a couple of prominent people wearing something in a movie - or perhaps some well-placed PR... all it seems to take is some sort of spark and you have a forest fire very quickly...


I think the net is a powerful way to start such forest fires - you may be aware that many companies have paid people to plant ++++ stories in internet forums because they are very much aware of the viral component of a positive recommendation on a web forum...

250,000 out of 7.5M is enormous (by comparison I believe the SCMP's circulation is about 100,000 - I believe the Economist's global circulation is 1M)


And if you were to remove from the 7.5M those who do not own property and lets say earn under 30k per month I think you'd have a total number of under 4M...


I doubt there are even close to 250k expat households in HK - and our survey is based on a very significant sample of 1500 or so respondents - so I am quite certain the 40% local audience is correct...


Virtually all of our marketing targets affluent locals (we have people on the streets of Central handing stuff out almost every day - and we have mailed out hundreds of thousands of mouse pads and other AX materials specifically targeting HK professionals) so it wouldnt surprise me that our community is even larger than that (I would suspect that there are many thousands of people on our site who were born in HK but moved overseas to study or live but have returned who are not showing up as local because they have say Canadian passports... they show up in the numbers as expats but as they were born in HK not sure if the term expat would be correct to describe their status)

I agree there are definitely much more visited local sites that are in Chinese - but that is not in dispute...


The main point is related to the influence of web forums (such as our property advice forum) to influence a market... I dont read chinese (but strangely can speak and write fluently) so I dont know whats out there that is comparable... so I use our property forum as an example


(Actually the idea for this thread was inspired by one member who is keeping track of the properties listed for sale on our site and using that as a market barometer...he indicates that the properties listed have increased dramatically in the past couple of months and takes that as a sign that people are dumping out of the market fast...)

:) I jest...


Anyway enough of this interesting discussion for now - it's Molson time - and the Creator (VGER) expects me back online by 9pm as we prepare to hopefully unveil a bunch of new exciting Features (including an interactive HK map) later tonight.

Ed, I have to respectfully disagree, if you aren't questioning whatever messages are being sent or opinions being given whatever the medium, then there is something wrong with the individual. Personally speaking anonymous forums are interesting but they lack the credibility to move a market like property the way someone editorializing using their own name from a reputable media source could. The internet has made media more democratic, readers can now interact with writers, there is user generated content, but there is a lot of quackery out there, myself included. Anonymous opinions have to come with a discount, they will always count less then someone's opinion you know or respect.

Fair enough - but suggest you read the book mentioned by Al Gore... he (or whatever team of researchers and writes put that together with him) put across the point of how TV has destroyed people's willingness to question - most (not all) sit in front of the tube and absorb... generally they watch programming that is increasingly drivel in nature...


The very nature of TV with its sound bites discourages thought - the internet on the other hand allows you to participate - in fact it invites you to participate...


Again I highly recommend Assault on Reason - I'd say it was the best book i read last year.


With respect to moving a market, I dont think its easy to point to any one medium or source that ultimately tips a market ... I think its a combination of factors of course with one of the important ones being that the market is itself on the edge of tipping already...


I do think that people exchanging opinions on forums like this does have influence - of course the comments must be logically supported with arguments before they will sway opinion... people will not simply accept what is said no more than they would with any other communication...


At the end of the day if they see enough negative news that is from a credible source and/or that is logically presented, I have to think that will have an impact.


I was amused by the constant attempts of the Property Post to present +++ news about the HK market when it was in 4 or 5 years of stagnation after the crash of 98... you could almost sense an attempt to spark things - in my opinion to the point of losing credibility... but of course you could see where that was coming from - its in your interest to try to push a string when you make big ad bucks off property - and when your parent company is a developer eh... Media can and do create momentum for markets and other things (e.g. support the iraq invasion) but when the facts/logic dont support reality it more difficult to do...

Btw - here's the thread where a member suggests our listings are a barometer for the economy/property market http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/114674/hong-kong-property-market-correction?/

Interesting question. I can't answer that, as I'm only to become an expat in another month's time.

However, from the point of view of someone interested in gathering information about HK, like myself, this forum certainly has an important influence. At first when I was offered a job over there, I looked around for a HK expat forum. I found two. Then I looked at the one that seems to be the most active, it was this one.

A lot of the info I've got of HK comes from this forum. Some of that info is pretty vital in helping me to make the decision to actually relocate to HK.

However, I doubt that this, or any forum would seriously influence the property market.

We have just completed a very extensive survey - results will be posted on our site as soon as the results are in a presentable online format.


We do not consider AsiaXPAT a site for expats - it is a site for Professionals, Executives (of all nationalities including HK people) + Expats (all expats - not just the traditional caucasian expat - because that increasingly that is a diminishing market)


We purposely re-oriented our marketing about 3 years ago to position as a lifestyle site for professionals - not fussed about where they come from... Note the images that we dropped in here at the time http://www.asiaxpat.com/ - these also went onto loads of other media including 100's of thousands of coaster ads in HK... as noted we heavily target the HK audience particularly in the business districts to let them know that although we are AsiaXPAT that's just a name - the content we offer is relevant to most people in HK who have at least decent English.


I think its worked quite well judging by the traffic jumps, surnames of the registered members + the survey results showing nearly half our audience is local (as indicated its probably higher as we attract loads of returning HK people who hold foreign passports)