Train Delays?

Hi, I live in China, but I'm traveling to Thailand in July and I need some advice! Any suggestions would be much appreciated!


My main question is: How often are the trains delayed from Chiang Mai to Bangkok? My travel agent said they could be delayed up to 4 hrs!



The back info:

My tour will finish on July 19th and I MUST be back in Shanghai that night.


To make the story short: there's only 1 direct flight from BKK to Shanghai each day (crazy right?) and all connecting flights have a 9 hr + layover (insane). I'm booking 2 separate flights, BKK to Guangzhou and Guangzhou to Shanghai.


The tour is scheduled to end on the 19th, and we'll be arriving by train at 7 am in BKK. My tour operator doesn't suggest booking flights out any earlier than 2 pm in case of delays. Because I need to leave myself adequate time for my "layover" in Guangzhou (customs, checking out, checking in) that leaves me 2 options: leave BKK at 1pm or at 2pm (for 2.5x the $).


What would you do? You guys have way more experience than me. If it were in China, I'd book the 1pm, because trains here are rarely late, but I have no idea how things work in Thailand. Any suggestions?


Thanks!

Listen to your travel agent!


All the Indochinese countries experience travel delays and booking travel without allowing for delays can be expensive lessons.