Posted by
Ed
15 yrs ago
As e-book readers and tablet computers become more common, one prominent tech mogul says that physical books could disappear sooner than expected.
More http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/innovation/10/17/negroponte.ebooks/index.html
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Five years, no. However e-books continue to grow by leaps and bounds.
I think it is one of those generational things, where our kids will think of e-books as the "normal" format.
Some books will remain physical for a long time, such as coffee-table books.
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No - and there are many examples of reasons why. Look at records - when CDs came along, many thought records would ide, yet records are making a revival. The analog sound of records and the process of playing records cannot be reproduced by digital format.
Film cameras - digital cameras are making film cameras obsolete and businesses like Kodak and Polaroid have gone out of business. But recently polaroids are making a comeback especially with cameras that also produce a certain effect (eg with vignetting, with scratches to give it that retro feel, with sepia tones, etc.).
I think the TV that we know it will disappear before books. I can see internet TV totally replacing land lines/cable etc. once the interface becomes more accepted and every home has access to high speed networks.
I think CDs will disappear before books as computer stereo will replace the CD - better sound, more convenient, wireless, etc.
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Both the vinyl and the Polaroid examples are interesting, since what customers are looking for is in fact imperfections in the process.
In the case of books, the content itself is not dependent on imperfections, but the feel of the page is.
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Exactly - the feel of a book, be it the hard cover and binding. The crispness of the spine upon opening and the feel of paper and smell of the binding are all parts of the book experience. No plugs, no down loading, no worries about battery life. ereaders will replace a lot of books but there will always be a market I think.
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There will be a market, at least for a very long time.
I use a Kindle almost exclusively. I forgot about the whole "paper book" feeling pretty quickly and I don't really miss it.
As for battery life, we're talking weeks without charging even if you read for hours a day, so that's not really a problem.
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My immediate thoughts.
I think it will take at least 5 years before the price makes them attractive enough to more people.
They will have to be like mobile phones, everyone in the house will need one before books can even think of becoming obsolete.
Many people still like to browse in a bookstore.
I doubt ebooks have the same intrinsic social value of a mobile phone. Everybody talks, not everybody reads regularly.
For me personally.
Neither of iPad or Kindle really appeal to me.
It is just one more thing to make a target for thieves. Possibly harder to lose than a mobile phone, but much more attractive to sticky fingers.
I also have a stack of books in the loo. This is where I can sit and ponder. The books live there. I cannot see me leaving a kindle in the loo. Actually it is where I do most of my reading.
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Kindle price has gone down to US$139 now. Next year ebook readers are predicted to be under $100. That's considered a "magic" barrier for impulse purchases in the US. In 5 years I think an ebook reader will be very cheap, perhaps in the range of a hardback book. At that point, thieves stop caring really.
"Many people still like to browse in a bookstore."
True, but this is a generational thing. Our kids will be used to downloading content from the cloud. Who knows how they will related to the written word?
I leave my Kindle in the loo all the time, inside a nice sleeve. ;) The device doesn't feel anywhere near as "delicate" as a laptop or iPad. I've dropped it on the floor a few times without issues as well. Oops.
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