New York City is dead forever

Posted by Ed 3 mths ago
I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories.

Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. I could start any type of business. I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up.

Now it's completely dead. "But NYC always always bounces back." No. Not this time. "But NYC is the center of the financial universe. Opportunities will flourish here again." Not this time.

"NYC has experienced worse". No it hasn't.

A Facebook group formed a few weeks ago that was for people who were planning a move and wanted others to talk to and ask advice from. Within two or three days it had about 10,000 members.

Every day I see more and more posts, "I've been in NYC forever but I guess this time I have to say goodbye." Every single day I see those posts. I've been screenshotting them for my scrapbook.

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Ed 3 mths ago
Protracted Lockdown Measures, Crime, High Taxes Are Driving People Out of NYC
As the dust of the pandemic lockdown settles and restrictions gradually ease, the contours of the ruin caused in New York City are emerging. Restaurants bankrupted, culture paralyzed, and gun crime harkening back to the mid-1990s.
The rich and middle-class are leaving in droves. The poor are stuck. A homelessness crisis looms on the horizon. Those who stay cling to rickety hopes—perhaps the vaccine will come soon, perhaps the city and state bring leadership. Instead, politicians are talking more taxes.

The Epoch Times spoke to more than a dozen professionals in real estate, mortgage, relocation, housing aid, and parenting aid to map the situation in the city and sketch out a prognosis of what’s to come.

Not all spoke of doom. And for some, there is a silver lining to the crisis. Investors with deep pockets, for instance, can get their hands on pricey city properties at a discount, betting on a recovery, even if years away.

Much of the pain, on the other hand, hasn’t yet come to bear. Nobody knows what the “new normal” is going to look like. Many say the city has changed for good.
Shutting Down New York City
The city had persistent problems even before the lockdowns. The exorbitant cost of living was pushing residents away, but the population was still growing.
As the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths escalated in March, the lockdown orders forced the “city that never sleeps” into silence.

Now, Manhattan is no longer a ghost town. People are walking the streets again and many businesses have reopened. Still, the bustle has been reduced to a shuffle.

Some of the dystopian features persist. In some office elevators, only two people are allowed in at a time. People are required to wear masks, stand in opposite corners, face the wall, and not talk to each other—a depressing picture.

Street corner bodegas have pulled through, but have hiked prices amid feeble pedestrian traffic. People keep to themselves even more than they used to.

And then there’s the “exodus.”
‘Everybody’s Leaving’
An early May survey by PropertyNest, a real estate listing site, indicated that nearly a million people were considering moving out of the city.
More than 400,000 have left, at least temporarily, based on cellphone location data analyzed by The New York Times. Moving companies are so busy they have to rent U-haul trucks or even turn people away, The New York Post reported.
The real extent of the out-migration is still unknown, but the phenomenon is undeniable and ongoing.
United Van Lines, America’s largest long-distance mover, saw the interest in leaving New York City nearly double over the May–July period, compared to the same period in 2019.

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Ed 3 mths ago
Another take on this situation:
Fifty years ago, cartoons of New York Mayor John Lindsay were splashed across the editorial pages of American media. Pockets emptied and with a comical expression, he was depicted as a pathetic beggar, hoping somebody, anybody would loan his city the money it desperately needed to continue paying its bills.

His challenge was reflected in just about every other major city, where commercial flight, infrastructure rot, and population loss was on-going and devastating to already corrupt civic finances.

Turned out cities weren't selling what people wanted to buy. People wanted space, property, and autonomy---the supplies of which cities are specifically designed to restrict for their leader's own personal aggrandizement. The unprecedented prosperity of the postwar years created a large American middle class with options.

And they opted to move out.

So the city's economic model fell apart.

Yet twenty years later after John Lindsay went begging, most large cities were experiencing a civic renaissance--with investments in world-class infrastructure, an influx of youth and talent, and rates of population growth that would rival previous heydays.

Budgets were even being balanced.

What happened?

Back when Lindsay was begging, the idea of the Federal government bailing out a city like New York was extremely controversial, even more so than bailing out individual states today.

It had never been done before. Why?

Our currency had value.

It was backed, at least in part, by gold.

Then in 1971, to prevent the last of the nation's gold hoard from redemption and export as a result of years of trade deficits; President Nixon signed an executive order 'temporarily' suspending the convertibility of the dollar to the precious metal.

The currency of America was officially valueless--unmoored from reality, able be created in whatever amounts plausibility and confidence could support.

Back then there were certain hard asset markets that could still serve as honest markers of currency value; real estate, oil, precious metals--but eventually all could be undermined by corruption and manipulated by leverage.

Cities such as New York where such markets already existed could be cultivated and embraced as centers where the 'advantages' of the now unmoored fiat could be exploited to maximum effect.

For top efficiency in these efforts, physical proximity of the looters to each other was essential. Such proximity also supported the natural need of these sociopaths to compare individual results through possessions, hookers, and blow. And as the immense proceeds of financialization piled up, competitive philanthropy and the drive for personal safety also led to a vastly improved local quality of life.

Increased policing, improved infrastructure, cultural amenities--all were funded by peacocking financializers who in turn were funding themselves by pulling future demand forward through leveraging a fiat currency which was rapidly depreciating to its real value--zero.

Yes, the real rate of inflation could be hidden through manipulating the official calculations of metrics such the CPI (consumer price index).

Sure, the widening gaps in the real return of labor vs. capital could be masked by lowering interest rates and easing credit access.

Of course, the 'deaths from despair' in the countryside would rise as reality caught up with those not poor enough for a safety net nor wealthy enough to get in on the skim.

But the cities themselves would thrive--because even in a connected world they themselves were essential. They, like Las Vegas casinos for the mob, were the centralized locations where the skim itself was worked.

But there was never any actual 'Renaissance' of our cities. No DaVinci, No Michelangelo, No Botticelli.

Our scholars were credentialed classist legacies or confidence tricksters; our businessmen, financial engineers; our artists, propagandists.

It was all, as Elaine Benes (how appropriate) would say, "Fake, Fake, Fake."

But, boy did that New York have energy!

Today, financialization has reached its limit.

There's very little demand left to pull forward.

There's very little upside to financialize. It takes a whole lot of new debt to generate one additional dollar of new revenue.

And the people themselves have gotten wise to the skim off their labor. They're realizing that the only way to win is not to play. The deflationary effects of massive oversupply will be something to see.

You don't even have to live next door to keep up with the Jones's, you can just fake it on Instagram.

The city, as a tool for financialization, has outlived its usefulness.

And therefore, there will be no additional outside investment, there is no reason for anyone to do so.

The "system" known as a city, now bloated and overgrown by decades of mal-investment, will be forced to become self-supporting.

For these cities, the rule of law is now a center of cost.

Your residency, a center of revenue.

Your ethnic and racial identity, a source of someone else's political power.

Those who can leave such places should not let the fallacy of sunk costs hold them in place. The assets you think you own in these cities aren't real. They're illusions; ephemera whose value was propped up by the same forces that created the phantasm of Giuliani's Times Square.

The smartest money left a decade ago when the connectivity of technology outweighed the value of the ego comparisons of wealth and status. Heck, Michael Bloomberg was mayor and even he didn't actually live in the city he led.

The 'inertia' money, those still hooked on status and nostalgia, are just leaving now. They're taking losses, but at least they're taking something. Check out the vacancy rates on the Upper West Side or in the Tenderloin District. I'm looking for the Seinfelds, the Gaffigans, and the Stephanopolises to be selling their co-ops soon. It's not just unsafe, its unlivable.

The next outmigration will be those who leave all their assets behind. As of this writing, Minneapolis actually is charging owners to remove the remains of the property they were previously taxed on and that the city couldn't/wouldn't protect with the services paid for by those very taxes the property owners were coerced to pay.

The final outmigration will be those who don't leave at all, not even with their lives.

New York, San Francisco, Seattle, Minneapolis, even Kenosha for heaven's sake.

Get what you can for your financial assets, coordinate with your social capital and run. Sure, this suppression of price might be intentional, but for you it's not coming back. Make the best of a bad situation and start anew.

Sadly, if back in the 70s these cities had simply been left alone to decay in a linear manner, there may have been some hope.

There were still strong, self-supporting social communities among the decay. Left to their own devices, they would have sorted themselves out, created their own systems, and reached a livable equilibrium.

But the Potemkin of 90s New York and similar cities pulled the pendulum so far back that those social communities and the social capital that supported them are well and truly gone.

As the pendulum swings back, the barbarity and mayhem that are about to occur will be a sight to behold.

These cities, both from without and from within, will sack themselves; over, and, over, and, over again.

And the equilibrium reached at the end won't be blight but rather...



and wonder.

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Ed 3 mths ago 
Manhattan Rental Market Sees Another Record Plunge For August With 15,000 Empty Apartments
"There were more than 15,000 empty rental apartments in Manhattan in August, up from 5,600 a year ago" according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel.
"The inventory of empty units is the largest ever recorded since data started being collected 14 years ago." 
The surge in empty apartments was widespread across the borough. Declines in new leases were seen across the board, from the high to low end segments. The plunge continues from July numbers which registered at 13,000 empty apartments, which was already a record. The average rental price of a two-bedroom apartment sits at about $4,756/month.

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worthmanalice 3 mths ago
NYC has Mainland Chinese Born American Mulan. Disney is dead.

But anyway, my friends in NYC told me NYC is not yet dead.

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