The Best Property Safe Haven ?

Where the Best Property Safe Haven t?


London? Hong Kong or Singapore? Elsewhere?


This Old article makes a valid point

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/360f9ec6-047e-11e0-a99c-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz17rN9hXdn


Andrew Ellinas, director of Sandfords, argues: "We have seen a surge of interest in property in prime central London as a result of the eurozone crisis, with 60 per cent of properties sold over the past month in London W1 going to cash-rich Europeans.


"These buyers from France, Italy, Germany and Spain in particular, are keen to move some of their wealth into London prime property, which is expected to perform strongly over the long term."


Wealthy people in these locations may want a hedge from the possible break-up of the Euro. But my initial comment reacted to the "expected to perform strongly in the long term" part of this, and was this:


(When I saw that about 3 years ago, I wasn't buying it. I said):


Premier "Safe haven role" played by central London property ?

I have to laugh!

How is putting your money into OVER-PRICED London property a "safe haven"?

It might be safer to buy a bargain farm in Ireland- that's more of a true safe haven IMHO


/ UNQUOTE /


In hindsight, I have to admit that a Safe Haven reachable by an express train (from other European countries) may have some strong appeal. Especially when it is probably the most appealingly Walkable city on the planet.


But only for those who are not too worried about price, and are willing to overlook the UK's own challenges...


So How did London do?

And how well relative to the other Safe Havens, like Hong Kong and Singapore?

...The Original article went to say this:

==============


"Outside Europe, there is still strong demand from buyers in the Asia-Pacific region. Property prices have risen 30-50 per cent in Hong Kong, ­Singapore and other Asian centres in the past year, and buyers appear keen to take advantage of the weak pound by moving money out of "hot" markets in Asia."


I found the "weak pound" part of this irritating, and out of date:


QUOTE (What I posted about two years ago):


Savills estimates that 60 per cent of prime central London property purchases are made by people from outside the UK, and they have been attracted by falls in the Sterling exchange rate, in times past


The big drop in Sterling came in the 2nd half of 2008. And that may have helped to fuel purchases in 2009 or even early 2010, but I doubt that it is much of a factor now, even though the Estate Agents still love to talk it up as a selling point.

/ UNQUOTE /


FXB / Pound Sterling : update - to 7/05/2013


: http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/2807/q5e.png


Is a weak Pound a good thing, or a bad thing? If it drops BEFORE you buy, it may be good, since it makes the property look cheaper in alternative currencies. But if it drops AFTER you buy, it may eat up some or all of your capital gains, while diminishing the real value of your rental returns.


HOW GOOD has London been ?


Here's an updated price chart for London - as good as it was - some other cities were better since 2009:


Greater London, per Rightmove Asking prices / JUNE 2013 /


: http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/1362/ng6.png


It is true that Hong Kong and Singapore, are both OBVIOUS SAFE HAVENS for nervous Europeans.

But their 50% price appreciation since early 2009 makes them look expensive relative to London, and the governments in both locations have taken actions to begin to SLOW DOWN or reverse property appreciation.


So what other cities should Europeans, and others seeking a Safe Haven be looking at ? Maybe:


+ Cities in Scandinavia?

+ Cities in Florida, and other parts of the US?

+ Secondary cities in Asia?

+ Morroco?


What are your comments on these cities?

"Safest" Places to Live in the US


/ NOTES: /


NE : The Northeast

A major problem with the Northeast is that it is just so darn crowded. Yes, there are some rural areas, but the overall population density of the region is so high that it would be really hard to go unnoticed for long in the event of a major economic collapse. Another thing that is not great about the Northeast is that so much of the population lives near the coast. As we saw in Japan recently, living near a coastline is not necessarily a good thing.

. . .

Mid-Atlantic

The Mid-Atlantic is one of the most beautiful areas of the nation. Unfortunately, it suffers from many of the same problems that the Northeast does. The Mid-Atlantic has a very high population density. For example, the area around Washington D.C. is pretty much all suburbs for 50 miles in all directions.

. . .

Florida

Florida is generally not going to be a place that you want to be during an economic collapse. The housing market has absolutely collapsed down there and the crime rate is already very high. It is also very densely populated.

. . .

Mid-South

Where you do not want to be is anywhere near the New Madrid fault zone. The New Madrid fault zone covers portions of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi. The biggest earthquakes in the history of the United States were caused by the New Madrid fault. Many are convinced that we are going to see an absolutely catastrophic earthquake along the New Madrid fault at some point.

. . .

Upper Mid-West

The Upper Midwest was once one of the great manufacturing regions of the world, but now much of it is known as the "rust belt".

Formerly great manufacturing cities such as Detroit are now absolute hellholes. Tens of thousands of our factories and millions of our jobs have been shipped overseas.

. . .

Great Plains

As long as you are far enough away from the New Madrid fault, the Great Plains is not a bad choice. It is very, very flat out there, and it can be quite windy, but the good news is that you should be able to grow your own food. In addition, the population density is generally very low in most areas.

. . .

SW : The Southwest

In the Southwest there are a whole lot of freedom-loving Americans, the weather is very warm and there is a lot of space to get lost. However, the Southwest is also very dry and in many areas there is not a lot of water. Drought and wildfires are quite common. In addition, illegal immigration is rampant and is a constant security threat.

. . .

The West Coast

During an economic collapse, the West Coast is not a place that you will really want to be. Just take a look at the state of California already. It is an economic nightmare. Millions of people have left California over the past couple of decades. The millions of people that have left have been replaced mostly with illegal aliens.

. . .

The Northwest

Large numbers of freedom-loving Americans have been moving to the states of Montana, Idaho and Wyoming. You can also throw eastern Washington and eastern Oregon into this category as well. It gets cold up in the Northwest, but not as cold as the Upper Midwest. There are lots of rivers, streams and lakes and in certain areas there is plenty of rain. The population density is very low in most areas and there is an abundance of wildlife. Housing prices are reasonable and in many areas you can grow your own food.

. . .

Alaska And Hawaii

Neither Alaska or Hawaii is recommended. Alaska lies along the "Ring of Fire" and it is very, very cold. Also, almost everything has to be either shipped or flown into Alaska. In the event of a real economic collapse, supplies to Alaska could be cut off and shortages could develop very quickly. Hawaii has a huge population and it does not have a lot of room. Like Alaska, most supplies have to be either shipped in or flown in. And one really bad tsunami could pretty much wipe Hawaii out.


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/source: http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread704425/pg1

Michael Burry Buys Agricultural Land & Gold


Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager made famous in Michael Lewis' book The Big Short, was recently interviewed by Bloomberg on a myriad of topics. Burry, a value investor by nature, bet against subprime right before its peak. Given his prescient call, many other investors are eager to find out what his next big play is. Well, his next investment seems to be land.


Read more: http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/09/michael-burry-buys-agricultural-land.html#ixzz2YH6TgHTX

Five Places not to be in an Economic and Dollar Collapse

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1. Israel : a desert country, surrounded by enemies

2. Southern California : lack of water, wealth-discrepancies, drug-user prisons opened?

3. England : the land of Big Brother, but diverse population will explode, people will blame leaders

4. New York City : too much dependence on Wall Street

5. Washington DC : collapse of government will cutoff funds flowing to DC


Massive decentralisation is the answer


(Hong Kong, since it grows so little of its own food, might be in the Top 10 or Top 20)

Depends on what you want to be safe from - safe as in how to protect purchasing power, safe as in how to avoid social chaos, or safe as in trying to avoid a nuclear bomb? Or just safe as in a nice place to live at a decent price?


Argentina and Chile are popular destinations for some people looking for safe havens that fit several goals.

UK Capital Gains Tax (for foreigners) - Here it is !


Bought already? Too bad !


UK to impose capital gains tax on foreigners


Hong Kong property analysts are awaiting further details of a proposed capital gains tax on foreign investors in Britain but believe the impact is likely to be limited given the existing property...

28% of Gains - that's what you will pay


(same article):


"Britain will impose capital gains tax on foreign investors selling homes that are not their primary residence from 2015, Finance Minister George Osborne said yesterday as the government moved to curb soaring house prices in London.


"It's not right that those who live in this country pay capital gains tax when they sell a home that is not their primary residence while those who don't live here do not," Osborne told parliament. "That is unfair.


"From April 2015, we will introduce capital gains tax on future gains made by non-residents who sell residential property in the UK."


Britons pay capital gains tax - typically at 28 per cent - on any profit from selling property that is not considered their primary residence.


Property prices in London have jumped about 10 per cent in the past 12 months and increases in some parts of the capital have been greater, driven by demand from foreign investors hunting for a second home or wanting to tie their cash in the safe haven of London.


About 70 per cent of newly built properties across central London are bought by foreign investors, according to Savills, while 30 per cent of luxury homes worth £1 million (HK$12.6 million) or more were bought by non-residents in the year to June, consultancy Knight Frank said.


Britain has always been the favourite destination of Hong Kong property investors. But increasingly foreign property investors are coming from mainland China.


According to David Hui, a sales director of mainland Chinese and overseas property at agency Centaline, there will be a psychological effect on potential buyers in the short term.


"Many investors are interested in buying property in Britain as the tax system is simple compared with other countries," Hui said. "The actual impact on overseas buying interest would depend on the details of the tax such as the rates and holding period."

Gaw buys London property for US$321m


The private equity firm teams up with Korean investors to acquire commercial building

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Gaw Capital Partners teaming up with South Korean institutional investors to acquire a commercial building in London that houses the global headquarters of retailer Marks & Spencer for US$321 million.


Gaw Capital announced yesterday that it had bought the 237,800 sq ft Waterside House, in Paddington, on behalf of a pool of top-tier Korean institutional investors.

= =

(Money to burn?):


Gaw Capital was joined in the Waterside House acquisition by the Korean Federation of Community Credit Co-operatives, Suhyup Bank and Hyundai Securities, Reuters reported.


Since 2005, Gaw Capital has raised more than US$3.57 billion and it currently commands assets under management totalling US$7.47 billion, encompassing residential developments, retail centres, hotels and commercial properties.

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> http://www.scmp.com/property/international/article/1362401/gaw-buys-london-property-us321m