Posted by
solowinds
15 yrs ago
We have a chunk of HKDs sitting in our bank which we need to convert to AUD some time over the next 6 months or so. What we want is to find out more info about the exchange rate predictions etc. Does anyone know how we might best do this? Any advice is appreciated.
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LaBob
15 yrs ago
last time when AUD/USD was above .9000 (not too long ago), everybody in the world is thinking about or doing the exact same thing you are asking now. then the sht hit the fan and AUD went down to .6000 and kicked everybody in the butt(including some big bosses in hk, whom we all know now)... so now 7 month later AUD back to the high, you start to think again.... my only advice is...there's no free lunch in the speculative world. If i know nothing about the market. I will just wait for the 10 year US treasury to go to above 5% and lock in my return. (it is hard to imagine inflation goes above 5% over the long run, but anything is possible)
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I am predicting a second sudden drop in the AUD. All you need do is wait. It may well have already begun.
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The $AUD rally against the $USD is helped by the positive interest rate environment, Australia has embarked upon an interest rate hiking process much before many other economies internationally and this, coupled with the economies close alignment to the commodoties market may provide some strength to the $AUD in the medium term. It is up 31.3% against the $USD this year. Once the USA starts to raise their interest rates you should see some outflows resulting in a drop in the $AUD.
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