If Property Prices are Less than 1997 Level



ORIGINAL POST
Posted by punter 15 yrs ago
If property prices are below 1997 levels, are they okay? At what level is it going to be not okay (considered a bubble)?

Please support our advertisers:
COMMENTS
punter 15 yrs ago
Even the CE said that property prices in Hong Kong are still affordable because prices hasn't gone back to 1997 levels, giving the impression that 1997 was not a bubble but a measuring guide.

Please support our advertisers:
hongkongoldie 15 yrs ago
will there be another bubble soon?

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
Who knows? But people like Andy Xie thinks so.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
PizzaAce, a bubble is a bubble even if you don't like it. It's marked by rapid increase in prices (so a real estate bubble is the rapid increase of prices in real estate) until it cannot be sustained anymore and then it has to burst. If you think today's Hong Kong prices is not very high, then you're right in your mind. However, bubbles are quite difficult to foresee and usually you'll know it "was" a bubble after the fact when prices have tumbled drastically.


Maybe you have a different definition of a bubble?

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
Walkup2, there's a huge difference from "prices are rising" to "rapid increase in prices until it cannot be sustained anymore and then it has to burst".

Please support our advertisers:
hongkongoldie 15 yrs ago
The Discovery Bay property prices are highest ever...is this a bubble then?


Please support our advertisers:
hongkongoldie 15 yrs ago
good point

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
I think that it is wrong to say that if homeowners are not over-extended then it's not a bubble even if prices are high. I say that nobody has called it a bubble yet but the warning is that a bubble may be forming as prices are going up influenced by the rocketing luxury property prices. But for argument's sake(hypothetical), if prices go down about 20-30% in the next few months, people may say that today's level was a bubble and nobody would argue with it.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
PizzaAce, how many flats have you bought lately? Is it zero? Why? Maybe it's because prices are high?

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
Congratulations on your good and timely buy. However, are you suggesting that others who did not at the early part of this year buy now? If people did not buy when they had a chance when prices were down, most of them will not buy now either. Case in point is me, I did not buy. I lost a great opportunity but I'm not buying at the current level of prices. Rents are actually stagnating so why rush?

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
If rents are going up and prices remains high, then should I buy now? I still will not as I am waiting for the winding of the stimulus moneys used by governments. Should I tell my friends, family members to buy now at this levels? Definitely not.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
What is forecast for the property market PizzaAce? Are prices going up in say 6-12 months? Or are they going to stabilize at current levels?


I'd like to see your call today so that we can go back 6 months from now and see if you're really that savvy or you just got lucky. Btw, have you realized your gains now or is it just paper gain still? Remember you're counting your "eggs" now but you haven't sold your property yet, have you?


Of course you're very good in timing so I'm sure you'll be able to time your sell perfectly too.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
The market is fickle. Just talk of some "cooling" action/measures by the government and sales numbers and prices were affected!

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
Look at the number of transactions. Have they increased or declined? The numbers have declined because prices are high, and the government said they're not going to allow "bubbles".


http://www.theedgeproperty.com/global-market-watch/520-hong-kong-weekend-home-sales-decline-30-says-centaline.html

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
Of course actions like restoring the HOS will have an effect. Changing the way lands are sold will have an impact too. These things the government can do, yes?


I agree that transactions fell because owners don't want to sell- or the other way around is true too: buyers don't want to buy because prices are high. Aren't they the same? Yes, let's wait which side gives in first. Personally, I believe that prices are high and there's no point in investing in property right now unless you can find somebody really in a hurry to get cash.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
So you agree that the two things I mentioned can affect property prices?


It's not the government's responsibility to help people who made a bad investment decision. But do you remember Lehman?

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
Wow Loyd, that's going to price a lot of people out of the property market! Also, that kind of price level will exceed 1997 levels. Still not a bubble if it does turn out to be true? Then maybe the government will re-start building/selling HOS homes and build more government sandwich homes!

Please support our advertisers:
HONGKONGEXPAT 15 yrs ago
Hi Loyd!

I have no issue if property prices go through the roof...I'm holding luxury property, however, don't you think that now we have three markets in Hong Kong. The mass market, the luxury and the super luxury market and yes it can be said if the super luxury goes up so too will the other markets but not pro rata. So if we see the mainland Chinese and rich Hong Kong Chinese buying property say in the super luxury range of HKD40-80,000 per square foot, I don't think they will compromise and up the price for mass market and not even luxury market, by say 40-50%. I think we will see three separate market segments that will stay with thus for the immediate future.

Please support our advertisers:
hongkongoldie 15 yrs ago
so do you think there are increases in all markets in the future?

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
70% of hong kong people surveyed want HOS program resumed. Will the government listen?

Please support our advertisers:
liebster 15 yrs ago
i think you mean, will the government listen, this time. every time property prices jump, there is a call for HOS and complaining housing is not affordable.


btw, where are you getting that number punter? it seems very suspicious to me as its highly dependent on where the poll is taken. if you head to midlevels then i doubt very much anyone would want HOS, as they are already a lot of property owners. if you take the poll in shau kei wan, then i can imagine it would be a different story.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
It was on the Morning Post today.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
How many HOS flats remain unsold? It means there's demand. Besides, it does give Hong Kong people who an alternative to own a home. Who cares about those who are complaining? As long as people CAN buy something they can call a home.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
Loyd, even you didn't buy any property 6 months ago. How could you expect the common Hong Kong man to buy property during a downturn?

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
That's the point Loyd, you don't need government help but others do.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
I'm sure you can't back that up with actual stats. Maybe you just get it from your universe of family and friends?

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
Do you have stats on how much the rich have in their bank accounts compared to the poor? What's the discrepancy? Hong Kong as a whole have huge deposit accounts, but how many can afford to buy homes? You can be very "far" in your guesstimate.

Please support our advertisers:
punter 15 yrs ago
Here's an article with some statistics on who's got the money in Hong Kong.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ef12c70-ea65-11de-a9f5-00144feab49a.html

Please support our advertisers:

< Back to main category



Login now
Ad