Do any of you brainiacs/currency experts/intellectuals have any thoughts on what will happen to the Aussie Dollar this year and when (or if) it will return to more 'normal' levels??
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Hello - Anyone got any updated predictions on what will happen with the AUD later this year??
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Great to finally see down downward movement in the AUD - any opinions on how low it will go??
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Any expert updated predictions.........????
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Ed
12 yrs ago
I don't like making predictions... all one can do is make an educated guess ...
I am in Sudbury Canada ... a big mining town that pulls a lot of copper and nickel out of the ground... the market for both metals has tanked badly and a lot of new mine projects are on hold or cancelled...
Speaking to people here China has been the big buyer of metals - likewise with Australia... China is no longer buying as much....
The CDN has dropped recently and is now at about 96 cents to the USD... I believe this is because canada is a resource based economy and as commodity prices drop the CDN drops...
I do not for a second believe China is growing at 7+%.... if they were then why are industrial metal prices crashing?
I believe the CDN will go lower... likely the Aussie dollar would do same... the wild card is China - will they launch another massive stimulus program spurring demand for commodities?
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Just restarting this discussion…. does anyone have any thoughts/updates on when they think the AUD is going to drop and by how much?
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Ed
11 yrs ago
I think the most anyone can do here is guess... again --- if China continues to slow --- or implodes as many are predicting it will under the weight of massive bad loans...
The AUD would likely collapse... (but then if the Chinese financial system implodes we will have far bigger worries than the value of the AUD)
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Ed
11 yrs ago
I think the most anyone can do here is guess... again --- if China continues to slow --- or implodes as many are predicting it will under the weight of massive bad loans...
The AUD would likely collapse... (but then if the Chinese financial system implodes we will have far bigger worries than the value of the AUD)
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The problem is the AUD should drop but the interest you get from the bank down there is still attractive vs global peers, add to that the economy going ok again vs the global peers that a China slowdown has already been priced in. The domestic situation which I personally believes starts to show signs of unravelling by around 12mths time as the mining boom continues to fade and jobs growth reverses is the next catalyst for the AUD to fall but relies on improvement in the EU and US, as at the moment I believe there is a carry trade still occurring with people putting money on deposit in Aus.
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