What's wrong with the Mid-Levels?

Posted by OffThePeak 14 yrs ago

"So OVER :the Mid-LEVELS!" - screams the cover of HK magazine this week.

Mid-ron lawyers, Mid-ron bankers and their wives, who just paid to much to renew the leases on their overpriced properties must be feeling unwell today, after reading the article in HK Magazine

DITCHING THE MID-LEVELS

Once a highly livable district, the Mid-levels is now on the verge of becoming an overcrowded, overpolluted wasteland.

For many people over many decades, the Mid-levels - the area up the hill from Bonham and Caine Roads - was the ideal neighborhood to live in. This high-priced residential area has long been symbolic of social status. In early colonial days, only the British were allowed to live there. Today, Mid-levels is known as the neighborhood of the rich and famous, with the city's lowest crime rate. However, the past decade has seen the Mid-Levels turned into another overcrowded, overpolluted residential district just like an other in Hong Kong.

And the worst is yet to come - overpopulation and congestion will only increase in the coming decade thanks to new MTR stations in the area, another escalator, and a new law that makes tearing down of smaller buildings to be replaced by skyscrapers much easier. This means more traffic, more pollution, and many many more people - government projections show the population rising by 10 percent in the area over the next 10 years.

Visit any property agent in the Mid-levels and you'll get an idea of just how expensive it can be - most flats have a price tag of over $10,000 per square foot these days, and we are not even talking about the new, primary properties.

It wasnt just for status that people originally moved to the area - the Mid-levels was long known as one of the city's quieter greener districts... It was untouched by the MTR and only a handful of diesel-spewing buses stopped in a few areas... Ultimately, the Mid-Levels owes its success as a highly livable area to the government-imposed constraints on development.

. . .

Today when you walk down Caine Road and then Bonham you find yourself surrounded by skyscrapers. You are in the midst of what many call the "urban canyon effect."....

WHAT'S WRONG WITH MID-LEVELS NOW ?

+ Over-Development

+ Air Pollution

+ Narrow Sidewalks

+ Traffic Jams

The Conclusion of the article:

"An area once praised for its privileged position in society with quiet streets, green areas, and open spaces, will soon be just another overcrowded and congested Hong Kong district. There is, however, one thing you can do, according to the think tank Designing Hong Kong: invest your money somewhere else - in a neighborhood that promises to be greener, more open and valuable in 20 years time."

cookie09 14 yrs ago

well....i agree

OffThePeak 14 yrs ago

Agreed.

I visited Happy Valley to go to the Jockey Club on the hill yesterday.

It seems like a nice area, that is well established, but without the ongoing construction that is turning the MidLevels into Wanchai. How do prices compare, and what is the traffic situation like?

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 14 yrs ago

I think HK Magazine needs to get its facts right. If you look at the MTR website, there will be only one MTR exit coming to Mid-Levels - at the David Trench Centre on Bonham Road (that's if you use generally accepted term for Mid-levels and not estate agent speak which lumps in Western). I need to check on whether only British were allowed to live in Mid-levels - I thought it was only The Peak. If only the British were allowed to live there, why is there a Mosque on Mosque Street? I thought it was to serve the Indian police who lived close to Ladder Street. Also, the area was formerly known as Matto Moro - field of the Moors in Portuguese.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 14 yrs ago

Mid-Levels is within walking distance to Central and has HK's main bar area on its door-step. Although it can't be compared withy Covent Garden in London or Le Marais in Paris, it would probably the area chosen by people who frequent those areas should they come and live in HK. That is why it is expensive. It is convnenient, vibrant and hasn't been created as part of some grandiose government scheme.

mayo 14 yrs ago

Mid Levels covers such a large area you can't peg it one description. I live on Stubbs Rd now and used to live on Magzine Gap Rd both part of Mid levels but both don't really fit with the above description of Mid Levels.

Philly Cheese 14 yrs ago

Yea, who wants to live in the expat ghetto anyways.

OffThePeak 14 yrs ago

EXCERPT from the Main HK Property thread:

"Transaction volumes, calls, and buyer purchase interest are really starting to dive from what I can see."

Maybe they are just holding onto their cash, awaiting "the Big Boys" - the last chance to buy West Kowloon properties on the sea. That's:

+ Long Beach (with 1,104 flats to sell - largest number in HK this year), and

+ Imperial Cullinan (with 650 flats, right next door)

One of the penthouses has just sold at $48,000 psf. Mid-Level purists take note - West Kowloon is zooming past you. (!)

Some folks who have never made the journey to West Kowloon maybe be journeying to the former "dark side" to find out what they have been missing.

UNQUOTE

notaeuropean 14 yrs ago

HK Mag is just about worth its cover price, perhaps a little less.

But yes mid-levels is indeed gross imho. Never saw the appeal of it-- it is so grey and polluted, and yet with so few decent venues/shops/food (if you like chinese and asian stuff anyway) that I was shocked to learn it was so expensive (5 years ago when I arrived!). You'd think it would be much cheaper than other parts of the island....

Sai Ying Pun is/was a great local area-- lots of old timers and working class HK folks live there. It isnt pretty either but it'll be sad to see it go.

OffThePeak 14 yrs ago

"...does not necessitate a mass exodus across the ocean to Kowloon just yet assuming a small apartment is acceptable."

You get more for your money in West Kowloon, but I reckon those most likely to make the move will be those working in ICC or IFC given the easy commute from those buildings.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

WK continues to outperform Mid-levels.

Many properties in West Kowloon are making new highs, despite the "slowdown":

http://tinyurl.com/GPC-WKln

Meantime, compare this with an Iconic property like Robinson Place:

http://tinyurl.com/GPC-RobPlc

This news shows that there is more interest Nam Cheong, on the "fringe" of WK than there was a year earlier:

13 developers bid for station project

26-08-2011

A total of 13 developers have submitted bids for a property project above Nam Cheong Station. The MTR Corporation said the market response was satisfactory. It's expected to announce the tender result next month. Last year, the MTRC scrapped a previous tendering exercise, after only three developers competed for the site. The residential and commercial site is estimated to be worth between HK$13.2 and HK$21.1 billion. It will provide 3,300 flats.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

"The city’s home prices have risen more than 70 percent since the beginning of 2009""

Best to check the actual data, isn't it ?

They show rises of +78% from the lows

===== CCLI- : MMLI- : WestK.: MidLv.:

LOW- : 56.71 : 54.77 : ==== : ==== : 12/15/2008

High :100.72 : 97.67 :100.64 :100.05 : 06/05/2011

Change +77.6%: +78.3%:

===== CCLI- : MMLI- : W.Kowl: MidLv.:

Latest 98.24 : 95.80 :100.37 : 95.95 :

Off Hi -2.46%: -1.91%: -0.27%: -4.10%:

Mid-Levels is "outperforming... to the downside."

What was that phrase in King Lear?:

"Being weak, seem so!"

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Both should be good.

But for the same quality, and same price per sf, I would prefer West Kowloon.

Why? Two reasons:

+ The Express train to China

+ The West Kowloon Cultural district

I know Mid-Levels officinados will not agree, but I do think it is fair to say: "The Heart of the Hong Kong SAR is moving to West Kowloon, and that will leave parts of the Island as a backwater.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

OffThePeak. West Kowloon has its moments if you are really at the top of the range but a terminus for a now-discredited high-speed rail link and a cultural district that a) hasn't been built and b) no one will use because they're not going to spend more than HK$20 on entertainment is hardly a pull over established HK-side locations. For property the rules are a) established schools and b) convenience. Nothing else counts.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

One thing I have noticed about Hong Kong is that people will often have strong opinions about areas that they have rarely visited. For example, when I lived in Tung Chung, I remember people saying how polluted the air was - and that came mostly from people who had spent little time there. When new property came on offer at Tseung Kwan O price at $5,200 psf, when TC was still near $3,000 psf, I remember telling people they would be at parity some day - because TC would rise in value and the almost unlimited supply would hold TKO prices down. Now we see that parity is not far away.

Now on this thread, you can read lots of opinions about West Kowloon from people who have almost never been there, or who have not been there recently, and so are unaware of the small but incremental improvements which are being added. Example: Have you visited the sidewalk Cafes at Hermitage yet? Or walked recently from Mong Kok to Olympic tube? These are small improvements, but new ones are coming all the time.

When I visited Mid-levels not long ago, I was struck by how little things had changed except the traffic was worse, and with new building the area was getting more crowded, and people were losing their views.

I think you need to look at the recent 5% or so improvement in WK prices relative to ML and ask yourself: Why is this happening? Will it continue as the projects that LGMV says are delayed move forward?

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Anyway, there should be something useful there by 2015:

"According to the original timetable recommended by the government when it sought funding from the legislature in 2008, 12 performing arts venues would be completed by 2015 in the project's first phase.

However, the new schedule released yesterday promises that only part of the 5,000-tree park, an outdoor theatre, an arts pavilion and a Cantonese opera centre will be finished by that year."

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Having celebrated West Kowloon opening up "a gap" in price appreciation versus Mid-Levels, I have to be fait and report the relative improvement has shrunk back, as some selling from a few stressed mainland sellers have caused a dip in WK prices.

ML prices are less influenced by stock prices across the border.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

West Kowloon is still outperforming

CHART: http://usera.ImageCave.com/geologic12/WKowl.png.jpg

WK is still at or above the level of early June, when the Centaline Index peaked. (This chart shows sales in the secondary market.)

"Has Mainland investment primarily affected new builds rather than the secondary market in this area?" - W-Up

Yes, I think that is right.

Some new properties, like Imperial Cullinan, have been effected by one or two "shockingly low" sales from Mainland-based sellers. But the secondary market remains firm, as the chart shows. (Some say that the initial Tower or two at IC were over-priced.)

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

From the Main Property thread

WHAT HAPPENS when Expat bankers lose their jobs...

"The answer is difficult to call. In the past once an expat's contract was terminated they returned home. In 2008-2009, many stayed in anticipation of markets opportunities being better than back home. The immediate end result may result in downsizing to sustain affordability." - WalkUp2

In 2009, many bankers moved to Tung Chung - to places like Caribbean Coast - where they found a nice standard of living for less than 1/3 the cost.

The location is not great if you are commuting to Wan Chai or Causeway Bay. But only about 45 minutes door-to-door, including the walk to the station, if you are working in the IFC. Less if you happen to work in ICC.

Of course highly paid bankers would not consider that option when they were in their jobs, but once they tried it ex-job, they found it wasn't too bad.

Some of these bankers moved back to the Olympic Station area when their jobs were restored, after discovering how convenient the Tung Chung Line was, but wanting a shorter commute when they were back into a high salary.

The resulting shift in perception could be one reason that prices have held up so well in the Olympic area (Island Harborview) and also in Tung Chung. I expect Tsing Yi has also benefitted from a similar dynamic.

Caribbean Coast/Tung Chung used to be at 30-40% discount to Tsung Kwan O (TKO), but now it is on-par with TKO where all the fresh supply is holding down prices.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

OffThePeak. This is all very well but for long-established HK families - who by having been here for decades or longer have usually trousered a significant amount of wedge - Mid-levels has the school network. If you live there, you are almost certain to get your child into an acceptable school (if not a prestigious one). Add in the restaurants and the future arts centres at the former police married quarters and the old Central police station and you get a pleasant environment. You also get to all the nice old buildings plus IFC2 etc. If you are in govt, then that is also convenient at thye new Tamar site.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Not everyone is interested in "the school network", and new options are arising in West Kowloon and other places nearby.

Amongst those who are not fussed about schools are:

+ Singles (but they may find West Kowloon "boring" so far)

+ Couples, with no children, or retired empty nesters

+ Yound couples with very young children

I live in a baby-making Tower, full of nice 2BR flats with many couples with very young children, or children on the way. New schools, and especially pre-schools are opening near here, and I think we will see more schools for older children before long.

The future home of the ARTS will be West Kowloon, making the area even more compelling for retirees who like culture. I think WK will win out in every respect, and expats who look down on the "dark side" may be paying up to get in.

Personally, I like my jog along the seaside near Olympic station every morning, and am awaiting the opening of future restaurants there. It reminds me of my Sunday morning jogs on Lugard road on the Peak many years ago before I became "Off The Peak"

jlamm 13 yrs ago

Off The Peak, what is your obsession with West Kowloon? You seem to have all the the zeal of someone who is trying to convince themselves that they have made a good decision when they really know otherwise. Before you say it, I have visited WK and it's a soulless wasteland with nothing to do apart from visit concrete shopping malls. The "cultural/arts" aspects have been much talked about but don't exist. Not only that, it is highly inconvenient if you work on Hong Kong Island.

As for your description of "A baby-making tower", it sounds absolutely horrendous - no doubt a recent development with "wonderful facilities", all of which are infested with children when you want to use them. No thanks.

I live in an old (1960s) building in Mid Levels, which is fantastic - convenient, quiet and with a great view (and I don't give a toss about schools!). The only thing I do agree with you on is that it's a great pity that these older buildings in Mid Levels are being torn down to be replaced, in a manner similar to West Kowloon, with new "baby-making towers", and more prevalent now, high end flats with huge floor areas, affordable only by mainland Chinese who are flooding in, offering nothing to the community, and making the place less pleasant to live in, as they already have done in Kowloon.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Jlamm,

I reckon your post is more revealing of your state of mind, than it is of mine. Let's see how many of the following guesses I have right:

+ You have never lived in West Kowloon, and refer to the area of Kowloon as "the dark side",

+ You think West Kowloon is only the area over the Elements shopping centre and have never exited at Olympic station to have a meal on Ivy Street, or one of the new curbside restaurants at Hermitage.

+ You would not know what I was speaking about if I mentioned the Fullerton Hotel, or the nice seaside park next to One SilverSea, Imperial Cullinan, and The Long Beach

+ Most of your friends live in an "expat bubble" with nice fat housing allowances, and you are not spending your own money on housing,

+ You pay a high rent or are servicing a big mortgage and are convinced that "HK is an expensive place to live."

Remmy 13 yrs ago

Like a lot of people, I started off living in the Mid Levels. I since then moved away and am now on Ma Wan island. When I go back to the mid levels, it seems horrible - crowded, polluted, basically a permanent construction site. In general the buildings are of low quality too. And yet you pay crazy amounts for quite a small space in Mid Levels. To give you an idea of what I have now, you can see here for what you would get on Park Island http://parkislandhongkong.blogspot.com/2011/12/nice-park-island-apartment-for-rent.html

This is not actually my place, but you can imagine from the photos what you can get for around 30,000 - 40,000 dollars a month in Mid Levels vs Ma Wan.

Where I live now, I have no traffice noise, cleaner air, a huge apartment, and great facilities. I pay $33K a month, and for what I get I think I would be looking at double the price in Mid Levels. Mid Levels is seriously just one big, overvalued, dirty construction site right now. It benefits from the proximity to Central, but that's about it.

Remmy 13 yrs ago

PS - I would add, Mid Levels/Soho is OK if you are new to HK, single, and going out a lot around Sogo etc, but once you are more settled, or have a family, then my above comments especially apply.

bawlucks 13 yrs ago

good add on Remmy,

it really depends on who you are, age, married, kids, etc

but for me, i would take midlevels over west kowloon any day of the week! no comparison in my book. and i would never live or buy on park island.

it would put me way too far from my work, friends and the excitement of hk island.

I live in upper mid levels, walking distance from the botanical gardens, next to. great hiking to the peak, running on bowen road, walking distance to soho which is full of great restaurants and nightlife.

Im a foreigner and i prefer hanging out around other foreigners.

im not going to go into bashing west kowloon here. i could, but that would just be based on my preferences

Off the peak has his investment in west kowloon, and decided to make his title focused on bashing mid levels cause it isnt his prefered place to live.

if buying for investment, i only feel comfortable buying in places where i would want to live and where i think the strongest demand for rentals is. foreigners pay the biggest rents and the majority want to live in the mid levels area. it is such a convenient and imo fun place to live.

Remmy 13 yrs ago

Hey about Peak, yes that's a good point. When I lived in the Mid Levels, I used to love walking around the Peak, from Hatton Road upwards. But actually walking up to the start of the Peak walk was not very pleasant, due to all the car pullution. I guess if you lived on Conduit Rd or Hatton Rd, that would be nicer, but of course also pricier.

gaijin 13 yrs ago

Another peeve about Mid-Levels: It's being taken over by estate agents. Where there used to be the Italian Deli, Laundry/Dry Cleaners, Coffee Shop, Kindergarten, Foot massage place - there now stands yet more estate agents!! Now the guy at the DVD Rental shop tells me they will have to move soon - wonder what will turn up in it's place............

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Remmy,

Thanks for your post on Ma Wan/ Park Island.

It shows that I am not crazy, or unfairly biased against Mid_levels, and that "flexibility pays" when it comes to choosing a place to live in Hong Kong.

Those who refer to Kowloon as the "dark side" probable cannot distinguish between (for example) West Kowloon (which includes the Olympic area) and the area of Elements. And chances are they are overpaying for the "privilege" of living in a crowded and expensive area.

Ma Wan, Tung Chung, Mui Wo, Discovery Bay, and Mei Foo (and elsewhere) can all be good places to live, so long as you know what you want, and why you are choosing to live there.

I think one of the useful functions of this website might be to get people to think in a more open-minded way, and maybe to escape from an over-priced Expat bubble. The fact that the quality of life is declining in Midlevels (as described by many others, and not just me), is another reason why people should consider being more "adventurous" if their family situation, and "she-who-must-be-obeyed" permits it.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

As for Peak walking, as I may have said here before: I used to live on Barker Road on the peak - and hence I call myself "OffThePeak." I loved jogging around Lugard Road on Sunday morning : What a wonderful view that afforded if there were no clouds.

Jogging along the water near One SilverSea, IC, and The Long Beach is beginning to come close to that experience, now that the construction on Imperial Cullinan is finishing. And there's also a nice park across the highway near Metro Harbor City, but you probably have to live in this area to discover things like that. And every part of HK, Kowloon, and NT is worth a boots-on-ground exploration before you make decisions about living there.

bawlucks 13 yrs ago

this thread.... lol

there are many great places to live in hong kong. happy valley, tai hang, lei king wan, star street, to name a few. soho is popular with foreigners for a reason and west kowloon is popular with mainland tourists for a reason.

youll never catch me living in west kowloon and a lot of my friends feel the same way.

where else can you have a more rock solid real estate investment than close to the escalator in soho? and yet, we have a thread bashing it in favour of areas where ' the construction on Imperial Cullinan is finishing' and 'there's a park across from the highway'....

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

OffThePeak. Each to their own but who would willingly move from Barker Road? It's the most prestigious address in China. I don't wish to be rude but have you been puffing away on the old electric tobacco?

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Yeah, Lloyd, I lived on prestigious Barker Road for almost 4 years, and I liked the view when it wasn't too cloudy.

But I got bored. I was single then, living there on my own. And when I got home after a long day in the office (followed by some nightlife, occasionally), I found that all I could do up there was enjoy the view - And I would rarely want to go out much. Of course, there were some young ladies who would want to join me up there too. But it would have been nice to have a few more choices on what to do.

I much prefer where I am now, and it is much cheaper too! People can pay for "prestige" if they like, but I prefer quality of life, and value for money.

BTW. I can look out my window on one of the highest floors in this area, and have a commanding view too. But now it comes with more access to restaurants, a cinema, and transport. And I see more of my neighbors too. That for me is a good thing.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

This is what I mean by a "Commanding" view from West Kowloon - and this is only one of three angles:

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/5386/hkfromkln1b.jpg

brightspark 13 yrs ago

I live on Magazine Gap road - not too far from the peak

with the office at ICC and an investment flat in the Cullinan.........but I'd never move there ..............I guess to each his own.

Remmy 13 yrs ago

Well, that West Kowloon is certainly ... intense. Here's the kind of view I prefer!

http://parkislandhongkong.blogspot.com/2011/06/park-island-beach-photos.html

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

"with the office at ICC and an investment flat in the Cullinan.........but I'd never move there"

I'm not sure I'd want to live at Kowloon station either - It's too new, too artificial, and too expensive. We prefer the Olympic area- it has more diversity. In fact, I prefer where we are to Barker Road too, as I mentioned before.

lizleung 13 yrs ago

i love living in real mid level. and i don't think MTR is climbing up the mountain.

cowleyp 13 yrs ago

how about too many bloody hills and too many foreigners?

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Bad news from MidLevels LLs?

Home Rents to Drop at Top End of Town - SCMP article

"Leases for prestige residential properties are expected to take a hit as companies cut housing allowances and the global economy weakens"

"In the next 12 months, luxury residential rents are projected to drop 6 per cent."

It will be interesting to see how rents across HK, Kowloon, and NT hold up, if the expat banksters and their lawyer-friends at the top see their massive housing allowances cut.

Last time, there was a relative gain for places like Tung Chung, as people downsized to less expensive space, and accepted a longer commute in return for a savings on rent.

lalib 13 yrs ago

"In the next 12 months, luxury residential rents are projected to drop 6 per cent."

6% wow weee!

Remmy 13 yrs ago

What most people who have had 2 year leases will find is that their new lease will still be higher. The "drop" might be a slight decline off the peak, but for most people rentals will still be higher.

So if your rent on 1 Jan 2010 was 20k, and it peaked at say 36K in mid 2011, then when you come to renew after your 2 years is up on 1 Jan 2012, your rent might be 34k. So down off the peak, but overall still significantly up unfortunately (unless you are a land lord).

Thell 13 yrs ago

Rents more than halved 1997 to 2003, and for luxury property have tripled since then. Have people forgotten the bear market so fast? Landlords are desperate to renegotiate in a falling market as if it's left off the market the rents only get even lower with time on top of the risk of being empty.

I remember rents at Stubbs Rd Evergreen Villas for 2800 sq ft at 35k in 2003, it's around 100k now .... rents could fall a long long way.

Demby 13 yrs ago

Why ? Because while somebody else is paying the rent, while landlords milk the expat housing allowance for all its worth, rents will continue to be what they are.

The same thing has happened to Sai Kung, which was once a very affordable area, now not so since it became popular with higher income families. I feel sorry for the low income foreign PRs that have to suffer high rents because a lot of other foreigners pay OTT prices when the estate agent discovers a company paid housing allowance is paid.

Ban housing allowances...Then maybe rents will lower accordingly, foreigners wont be so quick to pay wood duck rents that locals dont pay..

camberwell 13 yrs ago

most of the threads look like they were written by west kowloon property agents...

Remmy 13 yrs ago

I agree - not a bad spot, but prices have definately risen as the esculator and MTR are coming.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

I think the escalator will help but it won't make the area boom as much as predicted. If you want to use it, you still have to walk a little way up the hill from Queen's Road West which will be a huge obstacle to ultra lazy Hongkongers.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Okay. I can see the value of a new escalator. But that won't do much to help the over-crowding which has become a problem for Mid-Levels. The main positive impact of the MTR extension is that it might help ease the traffic problem which bedevils ML-based commuters.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

(This part was posted on the "Bankers slashing" thread):

LOL - did you see the SCMP's Business section today?

I am reading their paper, and they must be reading my posts here. Haha

Headline:

"Luxury Rents decline as Bankers feel the Pinch" - Whodanthunkit?

"Rents on homes leasing for HK$100,000 to HK$180,000 a month slid 18 percent from Jan to last Oct, as six figure housing allowances in the financial sector came to an end."

They ain't worth it, folks, and we all know that !

"Overall in the luxury rental market (over HK$40,000)... fell 7% in the period."

This was a "far cry" from the 20% rise that some had been predicting.

Some bankers had seen their housing allowances "slashed in half."

(Pause for a few tears)

"Bankers with leaner budgets were moving to more offbeat locations such as Discovery Bay and Sai Kung, where homes were spacious but more affordable."

"Offbeat"? That's offbeat?

LOL the journalist doesnt know what is genuinely off beat.

(this part is added here):

"Younger middle-mgmt employess, who used to find properties in Sheung Wan and Wan Chai affordable, are now eyeing properties near the Olympic and Kowloon stations."

Banks are hiring people from overseas on closer to local terms.

(The once always-bullish-on-luxury ) Anne-Marie Sage chips in, saying she "expects tyeh drop in luxury rents to continue."

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

walkup3. I was talking about the Centre Street escalator. They are working on that one already. I've heard about the Pound Lane one.; the DAB were pushing it. Has it officially got the go ahead and, if so, when will work commence?

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

MIDLEVELS PRICES : Going Nowhere Fast

As prices rally 4% acoss Hong Kong

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl : Tregun : Dynast : Clovell /

03/18 : 99.17 : 96.75 : 12,738 : 17,747 : 21,928 : 16,966 //

03/11 : 98.41 : 95.72 : 12,691 : 17,682 : 21,848 : 16,904 //

03/04 : 96.69 : 94.28 : 11,591 : 17,531 : 21,662 : 16,760 //

02/26 : 95.15 : 93.14 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 //

02/19 : 94.38 : 92.10 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 //

02/12 : 95.01 : 92.68 : 13,132 : 17,364 : 21,455 : 16,600 //

02/05 : 95.04 : 92,63 : 13,988 : 17,384 : 21,481 : 16,620 //

01/29 : 94.47 : 91.91 : 13,981 : 17,377 : 21,471 : 16,613 //

01/22 : 94.75 : 92.17 : 13,994 : 17,392 : 21,490 : 16,627 //

01/15 : 94.31 : 91.66 : 13,986 : 17,383 : 21,478 : 16,618 //

01/08 : 94.16 : 91.25 : 14,014 : 17,417 : 21,520 : 16,651 //

01/01 : 95.47 : 92.41 : 14,080 : 17,499 : 21,622 : 16,729 //

12/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 17,513 : 21,639 : 16,743 //

12/18 : 96.81 : 94.03 : 14,104 : 17,529 : 21,659 : 16,758 //

12/11 : 97.10 : 94.37 : 14,128 : 17,560 : 21,697 : 16,787 //

12/04 : 98.13 : 94.30 : 14,189 : 17,635 : 21,790 : 16,859 //

Could this be because overly-generous Housing Allowances are being cut?

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Mid-Levels - The once-favored location, is now a Sad Laggard

To match much of the rest of the SAR, Robinson Place should be near $16,000 psf

CHART:

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/4945/robinplace.png

Instead, it is languishing at $12,738 psf vs. $7,700 low.

So much for "prestgious locations" in the Mid-Levels. Don't say you were not warned !

Other Randomly-selected locations ar at/near 2X the early 2009 low

Park Island, New Territories : $5,609 psf vs. $3,200 low.

http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/7053/parkisland.png

Coastal Skyline, Tung Chung : $5,831 psf vs. $3,000 low.

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/7049/coastalsky.png

Metro Harbourview, Tai Kok Tsui : $7,129 psf vs. $3,700 low.

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/8429/metrohview.png

Island Harbourview, Olympic : $9,230 psf vs. $4,800 low.

http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/6166/islandhview.png

The Lesson: Bet on the prosperity of Hong Kong people, not pampered expat bankers and lawyers.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

"some properties from a low base have almost doubled" (in Mid-Levels)

I don't doubt that.

To me it illustrates 'the Lesson':

Bet on the prosperity of Hong Kong people, not pampered expat bankers and lawyers

There are fewer of them (expat Bankers with huge housing allowances), but the wealth of HK people continues to rise. So ignore those nose-in-the-air(head in space) agents who tell you that "High-end luxury properties rise fastest." They are looking after their commissions, not the interests of their would-be clients.

Remmy 13 yrs ago

I am long long over the Mid Levels. The "new Mid Levels" will be the area kind of around HK Uni, Belchers, Kennedy town, Bonham Road, etc, with the new esculator, new Sai Wan MRT etc. The other place I have become more and mroe keen on, as have other people who used to prefer Mid Levels is Park Island. There's a whole crowd of people out there now, who started as singles and couples living in Mid Levels, and now out on Park Island with kids, but still having just as much fun, and getting up to just as much mischief :) You can see here that trend is also reflect in the Park Island property prices http://parkislandhongkong.blogspot.com/#!/2012/03/park-island-property-prices-update.html which apparently just hit new highs.

My own view is that Mid Levels is good for single people, or couples. Caine Road, Robinson Road etc, but you really realize how nois,y crowded, stressful and dense it is there once you move away from it.

coty 13 yrs ago

I quite like the Mid Levels but i know lots of people who work in Central for whom the ML should be the area of choice but since they can't afford to live in the ML will say things like i prefer Sheung Wan, or i don't like living on a hill, or it's boring blah blah... but never 'it's over my budget'. Close to the escalator where all the actions are, for 15k you can only find a studio. But then it's worth paying for the convenience, the cleaner air, the prestige if you care about that sort of thing depending on your line of work.

On the properity of the locals, i have noticed the same recently. The faces in lkf and soho are changing. Places that used to be almost exclusively frequented by westerners now regularly have 30 percent locals if not more. But i don't think bar and restaurant owners and staff are prepared for the change. My local friends went to both Vivo and Tivo and felt unwelcome by the waitstaff there who seemed to prefer serving westerners.

muse07 13 yrs ago

Not sure, but I think the Sheung Wan/Sai Ying Pun boundary has also become a bit blurred. Have definitely noticed a lot of changes in the SYP area since I moved there four years ago, from the Mid-levels. I have to admit to being in a bit of an expat bubble. SYP, which of course is much cheaper rent-wise, is 5 mins taxi from Central and about 15 mins walk from Soho, so to me it's been a bit of a no-brainer. It's much more "local" of course, but has been changing since things like a new Market Place, luxury developments, restaurants etc have opened up. More young expats have moved in. Same theme - perhaps even more so - in KT.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

The whole of Western is finally being linked into HK. Before, it was ludicrously difficult to get to Central from Kennedy Town to Central. In addition to the West Island Line (Sai Ying Pun, University, Belchers), the Centre Street escalator is coming on stream soon and there is talk of another one at Pound Lane linking the Macau Ferry to Bonham Road. Of course, as China grows, so will this area. Prices are high now to reflect this but if you are looking to make a longer-term punt, buying here should be a bit of a no-brainer.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Why would someone (from Mainland China) want to live "way over" in Kennedy Town, or some other remote location, when they can live within walking distance of the express train to China, and the express train to the airport.

I think those remote locations will increasingly fall from favor by mainlanders.

Cramped but "luxurious" properties like Hermitage, The Coronation, and Park Summit seem to be attracting a great deal of attention, and some good buying interest.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

Not talking about mainlanders. HK people make up the vast majority of the market. High-end West Kowloon is a completely different market,

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Okay. Theoretically, I suppose.

But if you look at the top and bottom of these columns, you will see where the growth has been:

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl : Tregun : Dynast : Clovell / IslHarb : ParkA : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : CaribC

04/01: 101.17: 99.15 : 13,795 : 17,860 : 22,067 : 17,074 // 9,550 : 10,401 : 11,641 : 14,441 : 18,548 : 4,871

03/25: 100.06: 97.97 : 13,723 : 17,766 : 21,952 : 16,985 // 9,296 : 10,105 : 11,346 : 13,907 : 18,359 : 4,926

03/18 : 99.17 : 96.75 : 12,738 : 17,747 : 21,928 : 16,966 // 9,230 : 10,160 : 11,380 : 13,949 : 18,414 : 4,766

03/11 : 98.41 : 95.72 : 12,691 : 17,682 : 21,848 : 16,904 // 9,165 : 10,089 : 11,358 : 15,071 : 19,152 : 4,736

03/04 : 96.69 : 94.28 : 11,591 : 17,531 : 21,662 : 16,760 // 9,029 : $9,937 : 11,244 : 14,269 : 18,960 : 4,751

02/26 : 95.15 : 93.14 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,449 : $9,638 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 21,504 : 4,808

02/19 : 94.38 : 92.10 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,580 : $9,784 : 11,160 : 13,048 : 20,058 : 4,770

02/12 : 95.01 : 92.68 : 13,132 : 17,364 : 21,455 : 16,600 // 8,659 : $9,874 : 11,210 : 13,107 : 20,148 : 4,768

02/05 : 95.04 : 92,63 : 13,988 : 17,384 : 21,481 : 16,620 // 8,576 : $9,779 : 11,185 : 13,078 : 20,103 : 4,790

01/29 : 94.47 : 91.91 : 13,981 : 17,377 : 21,471 : 16,613 // 8,770 : $9,663 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 20,031 : 4,730

01/22 : 94.75 : 92.17 : 13,994 : 17,392 : 21,490 : 16,627 // 8,762 : $9,654 : 11,152 : 13,039 : 20,043 : 4,871

01/15 : 94.31 : 91.66 : 13,986 : 17,383 : 21,478 : 16,618 // 8,762 : $9,655 : 11,146 : 13,032 : 20,032 : 4,667

01/08 : 94.16 : 91.25 : 14,014 : 17,417 : 21,520 : 16,651 // 8,780 : $9,674 : 12,250 : 13,060 : 20,075 : 4,630

01/01 : 95.47 : 92.41 : 14,080 : 17,499 : 21,622 : 16,729 // 9,135 : 10,399 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,378 : 4,631

12/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 17,513 : 21,639 : 16,743 // 9,100 : 10,147 : 12,431 : 13,252 : 20,371 : 4,610

12/18 : 96.81 : 94.03 : 14,104 : 17,529 : 21,659 : 16,758 // 9,109 : 10,157 : 12,436 : 13,258 : 20,379 : 4,620

12/11 : 97.10 : 94.37 : 14,128 : 17,560 : 21,697 : 16,787 // 8,950 : $9,980 : 12,379 : 13,196 : 20,285 : 4,619

12/04 : 98.13 : 94.30 : 14,189 : 17,635 : 21,790 : 16,859 // 9,016 : 10,054 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,131 : 4,834

COMPARE:

Robinson Place : 14,189 to 13,795 : - 2.78%

to

Island Harb'vw. : $9,016 to $9,550 : +5.92%

That's a relative gain on +8.7% for the West Kowloon property.

Will the new MTR line enhance the performance of Mid-Levels?

Maybe not. Only if it is close enough to actually reduce commuting times.

I do expect that nicer buildings in Sheung Wan or Kennedy Town may gain on those remote and hard to reach ML buildings that some expats still favor. And as those ML buildings get older and more rundown, and builders keep pushing up new towers, making it more crowded, then the "lustre" of a ML location may continue to fade.

Remmy 13 yrs ago

New MTR will definately increase prices around the MTR station - Sai Wan, Bonham Road, Kennedy town - also the Western Esculator. One very good buy would be Kingsfield Tower at the corner of Bonham Road and Pokfulam road. A new MTR exit will be build around 150 meters away at Hong Kong Uni, you have the MTR exit at Kennedy town around 5 mins walk away, and the new Western esculator 5 mins walk away in the other direction. That particular building is an older building, but excellent for refitting with modern apartments, so I am sure that Kingsfield Tower would be a good buy and go up once all the new transport is in place.

muse07 13 yrs ago

On the new escalators being built on Centre Street and Pound Lane:

http://www.cdeclips.com/en/hongkong/Escalating_fury/fullstory_73248.html

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

I find it a bit funny.

People in Mid-levels are waiting and hoping... That the MTR stops and escalators will be built where they hope them to be built.

Meantime, the MTR stops are already in place, and working well in West Kowloon. The Mid-Levelers are gambling that they might have something good someday, when it already exists elsewhere.

Check it out: Very often... Reality beats The Dream.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

"The use of escalators as a form of public transportation is being met with an increasingly critical response from design critics, academics and activists. “Is this an appropriate use of technology?"...

. . .

Proponents say it will reduce traffic and provide relief to the neighborhood’s many elderly residents. Opponents say it will destroy the peaceful, low-key ambiance that sets this part of Sheung Wan apart from the development frenzy of Central and the Mid-Levels."

With this sort of controvery, isn't there some real possibility that they will not be built? I reckon they "pay for themselves" in increased Stamp Tax Duty for government (thanks to higher property prices.) But maybe a study will show something different.

You never know.

Ted the Angry American 13 yrs ago

When has logic and reason ever been a factor in the HK government's decision to build something OffTheBubb?

Speaking of reason, you can't blame people for still loving the ML's even if it sucks to live there in reality. The perception that "midlevels are better" is still strong in HK and will take a while to shift. Don't forget that conventional wisdom still insists that Tung Chung is the most polluted place in HK despite all evidence to the contrary.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

LOL.

You are right, Ted.

Old prejudices die hard.

But that means there are opportunities for those people who do not share them.

And in the end, everyone is entitled to their own opinion. And I don't mind having one that saves me a bit of money. I am glad to have moved Off The Peak. Now that I am spending my own money, I am happily more flexible.

Remmy 13 yrs ago

Thanks for those nice comments Walkup3. Yeah my I did take a good look around, taking into account all the planned changes coming to Western Mid Levels, and then further trying to find a buildings that offered the best value for money in terms of quality, internal structure, location, price psf, rental potential etc. Some of the places I looked at were nice, and new, but came at a high price. Eg Belchers, and another place I looked at called Bon Point. There were also lots of crappy places, 5 floor walkups etc. These might be OK long term, if you are prepared to hold and wait for re-development. I zoned in on Kingsfield Tower, as I considered the location almost perfect (right on corner of Bonham Road and Pokfulam Road) and the quality structurally very suitable for an internal refurbishment - nice large square shaped rooms, many of the places with nice open views too. The places at Kingsfield are 1000 sqft, so really perfect for a 3brm conversion into a large 2 brm open plan type place that appeals to expats. Also has car parks, and then very easy access to Central by bus, taxi etc. So in my view there is upside still in this location. As I mentioned earlier, I also think HK is a much bigger place than just the Mid Levels, so apart from Mid Levels West, after lots of searching, I concluded Park Island is also very good value for money. (Many people have not even yet heard of Park Island, which to me is in itself a positive factor, as you are able to buy something "before the hype/reputation" factor comes into play and factors into pricing.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

"I concluded Park Island is also very good value for money. (Many people have not even yet heard of Park Island.)"

Somebody must have discovered it - since prices have more that doubled in the last few years:

http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/1647/parkisl.png

At $5,7000 psf, it is more expensive that some buildings in Tung Chung, and I wonder with the "communiting challenges", if that makes sense.

Remmy 13 yrs ago

Yes, PI has risen, but off a very low base. It still seems amazingly affordable when you look at the quality vs say Mid Levels.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Okay, but that's more a reflection of the silly unaffordability, and poor value-for-money in Mid-Levels.

I think the explanation is that people wind up overpaying for a comfortable and overly-popular choice.

When people who live there have the incredible arrogance to call Kowloon "the Dark Side" then it is easy to imagine that they will overpay for their lack of open-mindedness and limited flexibility. The language describes their mental block, without giving any useful information about Kowloon.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

Offthepeak. Schools dearie! SCHOOLS!

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

New schools will be coming to Kowloon and the NT - there are various efforts to bring them in, especially around the West Kowloon area. I am aware of two.

But remember, not everyone who buys property has this concern, at least at the time they are seeking to rent or to buy.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

Mid-levels wins hand down because even uf your kid doesn't get imto first or second choice, he/she will still get into a 'decent' school with some kind of reputation. This is the only area in HK where this is possible. There are good schools in the eastern district where I live, but if your child misses out on the grades or the interviews - and doesn't succeed in the lucky draw. It's straight to the bottom of Band 1. Even worse if you are a boy because there are fewer 'good' boys schools in this area.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

You are talking about Expat kids, I presume.

I know plenty of smart guys married to HK women, who want to have their children schooled along with Hk kids, so they can enjoy the "advantage" of speaking the local lingo well.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

No. Local kids. My kids go to local schools.

Underdawg 13 yrs ago

OTP, mid-levels is very convenient and walking distance from where many people work. It just so happens that it is also walking distance from the "happening" areas of lkf, soho and beyond. People are willing to pay a premium for that convenience. The reason people call Kowloon the "dark side" is because they have no need to go there and therefore are unfamiliar with it.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

"walking distance from the "happening" areas of lkf, soho"

There a chicken-and -egg situation there.

Those areas exist, because the big-spending residents of Mid-Levels can walk by them.

If you put enough high-spending people in a new area, entertainment areas will spring up. It is starting to happen near Olympic station as new expensive properties are sold, and the owners or their tenants move in.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

OTP. I think West Kowloon is a bit different. There are bar areas in Kowloon such as East TST and Hart Avenue but the main 'scenes' are LKF (young) and SOHO (middle-aged). There is also Wanchai (jaded). Quite like TST East as it doesn't take itself too seriously but it is too troublesome to go there if you are HK islander - it may involve some kind of walking or even changing of stations.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

A new night-time scene is likely to spring up in TKT (Tai Kok Tsui) since there is now sufficient critical mass of well off people to allow that to happen.

A small restaurant scene is already happening at street level in the shadow of Hermitage. Friends from HK who dine with us there all say: "I didn't know this place existed."

The next place to watch are the streets in the shadow of Florien Rise, that area is ripe, and would also get some after-work traffic from HSBC, whose insurance and training centre is right next door.

If you have never seen Ivy Street, it too is worth a visit, with new restaurants all the time. It already boost a Black and White cafe, which may be the single best place to buy chocolate in Kowloon, or all of HK.

Each area of the SAR has its own attractions, but the number and quality of those in TKT is growing fast.

BTW, the emerging scene at Olympic is more diverse and less expensive that what you find at Kowloon station, which is a bit of rich Tai Tai shopper's ghettoe.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Have you seen it?

The place is very popular amongst some fussy local people, but it may not appeal to chi-chi expat wives.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Do you really travel by Tram, Walkup?

You must be under 6-feet tall, if so

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

LOL

Since you have been riding trams for years ?

Or from all those stairs?

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

ARE EXPAT housing allowances going to be phased out ?

Asia's Endangered Species: The Expat

Forget expats. Western companies doing business in Asia are now looking to locals to fill the most important jobs in the region. Behind the switch, experts say, are several factors, including a leveled playing field in which Western companies must approach newly empowered Asian companies and consumers as equals and clientsnot just manufacturing partners.

link: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/career-advice-work-visas/threads/146935/asias-endangered-species:-the-expat/

== ==

If so, what's that going to do to property prices in Mid-Levels?

Underdawg 13 yrs ago

Have you been following the sales of buildings such as argenta, where ridiculously priced flats are being bought by mainlanders and locals? I hate to break it to you, but mid-levels isn't just in demand by expats but also locals and even mainlanders who want to be conveniently located. Until and unless Central is not the CBD of hk, mid-levels will always be in demand.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 13 yrs ago

Schools, schools, schools. Convenience, convenience, convenience. Status, status, status.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

"Status, status, status."

Been there, done that. I used to live on the highly prestigious Barker Road for almost three years. I prefer where I am now. Hence my choice of name: Off The Peak, and happy-for-it.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

(A reaction to a post by LGMV on the Main property thread- easier to find here)

"1) Mid-levels small flats: Bella Vista on Ying Fai Terrace, Cameo Court on Caine Road and Parksdale on Park Road/Bonham Road (opposite new MTR station on Bonham Road). Tin Hau (limited supply, up and coming), Fortress Hill (new Oil Street development, great connections) and North Point (will be a new transport hub when the North Island Line is built)."

That's great Lloyd. Genuinely.

Probably those are worth a closer look

Maybe you could write a book:

AN IDIOTS GUIDE to the Mid-Levels, or perhaps: Mid-Levels for Morons.

(haha- just kidding. Truly, it is worth hearing what particular buildings look like good value to people. And it would be very interesting to know the Prices per foot on those - I will cc this to the Mid-levels thread, where it will be easier to find.)

Remmy 13 yrs ago

Of these I really like Bella Vista on Ying Fai Terrace as an investment.

Very easy to rent to a typical "ex-pat" tenant, excellent management (and reasonable body corp fees), has a nice pool and gym (which not many of the smaller or older places on the midlevels have), high quality construction (nice lobbys, facilities, interior etc), low maintence, and upside there once all the construction around that area is complete.

I have 2 places in Bella Vista, Mid Levels, both valued around 6.5m, one rented at 19.5K, and one at 21K, both to excellent tenants with good expat jobs.

Another good one to add to the list is Bellevue Place (just off Caine Rd on Ladder Street).

Remmy 13 yrs ago

I should also add Kingsfield Tower to the list. And for people with a bit more cash, and prepared to do a rennovation, Realty Gardens on Conduit Rd.

OffThePeak 13 yrs ago

Thanks, Remmy.

I will add those comments to the MTR extension thread:

http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/147229/hk-island-mtr-extension-opportunities/

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

Bursting the Bubble

HK Expats are being squeezed, as net wages fall -says SCMP

High cost of education and housing means staff gets the worse deal in Asia, a survey from ECA has found

+ Of the US$231,000 average Expat package in the city, just 35 percent is salary - high housing and education costs make up much of the rest

+ "Hong Kong is seen as a good spot to advance careers so expatriates need fewer incentives to live there."

IS THIS THE END...

Of the expat housing bubble, and "the good life" in expensive Mid-Levels flats?

Will Expat Employess soon need to learn how to live like normal people?

That may mean a few "trade-offs" need to be done, like moving away from Midlevels, and wives needing to work too, without assuming their children will necessarily get the benefits of HK's "best schools" at employer expense.

New living arrangements may be coming, as Mid-Levels descends towards its ultimate status as a fading backwater.

(Last sentence is an intentional wind-up of 1 or 2 other posters here. I do think it is possible, but it will take a long time. And the live-able parts of HK are spreading out. That's not a bad thing.)

Does this post deserve a thread of its own?

Remmy 12 yrs ago

@ Softy, I have been saying that for a long time, and indeed its happening already. Many expats are at Sai Kung, more are considering Gold Coast, and apart from Discovery Bay many are discovering Park Island. See here those not familiar with Park Island and its suitablability for expats moving to HK http://parkislandhongkong.blogspot.com

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 12 yrs ago

Softy. Maybe we could check back in again on Planet Earth.

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

"It's the schools", Softy.

The arent up to snuff in many place off HK Island

Well, guess what, I am aware of at least one effort to bring a top English school to HK. If this is as important as Lloyd says (and I don't doubt hit), there might be an investment opportunity to buy property near the new school when the location announced. Or even better to buy before it becomes public. (So far, my information source, will not reveal it.)

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

I am pretty certain the location is nowhere near Mid-Levels.

The guy doing the search lives "on the dark side".

Hey, if turns out to be Park Island, old Lloyd will be laughing

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

OFFICE Leasing: Slump leads to Tenants Retreat / headline into SCMP, B7

Businesses look further afield for affordable accomodation

Sure, "Central is central" as the article says,

but office availability has climbed to 6.2 pct at the end of June, the highest amongst office districts, as grade A offices were surrendered

As high-paying jobs, and future job growth moves away from Central, is Midlevels going to be able to "hold the gap" which gives it much higher rents than elsewhere ?

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 12 yrs ago

OffThePeak. It's the school network, convenience and social life plus long-established businesses. Same world-wide for core areas. The only thing that worries me is the rise of SOHO and Wyndham Street. Not sure how they would cope with a financial bust. However, I think with the growth of China these small areas should have enough business for the forseeable future barring war with Japan. We now have an 'Agnes B' florist and coffee shop in Gough Street in NOHO. WTF? Popped in after a bowl of beef brisket noodles at Kau Kee.

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

Yeah.

But conveniences, jobs, and even schools are now spreading out around HK and Kowloon. Even the NT

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 12 yrs ago

OTP. Not really.

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

(Midlevels : The erosion continues...)

Hong Kong Island - The Tarnished "blue chip" location

AREA----- : Latest : PrevWeek : PrevMonth

HK-------- : 119.86 : - 2.79 % : - 2.44 %

KLN------ : 114.48 : +0.66 % : - 0.25 %

NT (East): 111.72 : +1.35 % : - 1.02 %

NT(West)- : 95.53 : - 0.29 % : - 0.69 %

===

/see- 12/02/12: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

What was that line from King Lear? :

"Being weak, seem so" (to HK Island)

Meantime: in Kowloon, they are RAISING prices.

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

Well done, CY !

I wonder what the Mid-levels/& Pokfulumites are going think about all the new neighbors invading their sacred turf?

If supply and demand matter, hwo will prices fare there ?

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

(Comment / From the Main thread):

From simoness (27 mins ago):

===

"I used to live on Caine Road 4 years ago and moved because of the unbearable noise and vehicular stink. Further development of the low rise plots into 50+story blocks will be a disaster for the area imho. The place is just not physically capable of supporting this amount of people and their modern demands for convenience in such a small area. Central and Midlevels is slowing turning into a scene from Total Recall, with houses built on houses, roads in the sky, pollution, material excess and poverty."

(my response):

Caine Road and some other places in Mid-Levels are going to be a very inconvenient commute to Central. Maybe it is Time to move to West Kowloon, where there's a very reliable 7-10 minute MTR ride into Central?

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 12 yrs ago

Where is Kowloon? Is it part of New Jersey?

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

Haha.

LGMV, I find it amazing that someone who lives in Fortress Hill...

FH-Photo: http://pcdn.500px.net/4279569/df8ea1dea725995f2dd84de8ea7e420d935eadf4/4.jpg

Can get sniffy towards Kowloon. What sort of bizarre notions might drive an attitude like that?

WK-Photo: http://www.building.co.uk/pictures/641x350fitpad[237]/6/6/7/1673667_FOSTER_WEST%20KOWLOON_5.jpg

Would it be wrong to say: The most iconic thing in FH is the McDonalds? If I have that wrong, what is it please?

punter 12 yrs ago

It has an MTR station.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 12 yrs ago

OTP. You're so easy to wind up on this subject. I think school network is the main advantage of Mid-levels. Fortress Hill is also in a pretty good school network (Cheung Chuk San, Belilios Public School) - though it helps if you are a girl.

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

NO RUSH to develop Mid-levels, says SCMP.

Why not?:

+ Most land is held by the govt., Univ. of HK, and Queen Mary Hospital

+ Bad roads and traffics jams pose deterrent

Without development, will Mid-Levels slow turn into a "remote backwater", as HK's focus turns towards China, and areas with better connection to the Pearl River basin ?

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

Mid-Levels and other "expensive" areas struggled in Q1-2013:

Week : CCLI : CMMI : Robin.Pl: Tregun : Dynasty : Clovell // IslHarb : ParkA : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.

====

03/24: 123.45 122.72: 16,175 : 19,960 : 24,311 : 23,919 /11,428 : 12,439 : 13,964 : 16,339 : 22,190 : 6,184 : 12,159

====

12/30: 115.78 114.25: 14,985 : 19,609 : 23,883 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 : 11,665

====

Change +6.6% +7.4%: +7.9% : +1.8% : +1.8% : +7.5% // +9.5% : +11.5%: +9.6% : +0.1% : + 0.0 % : +2.2% : +4.2%

=====

Some of the best gains were in the Tai Kok Tsui area. Could that be because people are beginning to price in the improved transport links (XRL and the Tung Chung Line extension?)

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 12 yrs ago

OTP. Please stop this ludicrous Mid-levels bashing. It's about good schools and being able to walk to Central -- the centre of things here in HK. Sheesh

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

I am not bashing anything.

I am merely recording the change in values over one quarter, which were less in Mid-levels than in other areas.

Do you have a quarrel with the facts?

What is your explanation?

BTW, there are efforts underway to introduce new schools to other areas, so nothing (apart from transport links) is written in stone for long in HK.

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

HK Luxury Rents under pressure - as Banks Downsize Costs

Hong Kong - ranked No 9 worldwide - posted a 3.7 per cent year-on-year increase in luxury rents last year. Beijing saw the highest average increase in Asia - 8.5 per cent - followed by Shanghai (6.1 per cent) and Guangzhou (4.7 per cent).

. . .

Patrick Chow, head of research at Ricacorp Properties, said: "Constrained housing allowances for expatriate staff and a downsizing of the operations of Hong Kong's financial institutions have weakened demand for luxury flats in particular."

With smaller budgets, he said, expatriates were forced to look for smaller apartments, thereby boosting rents for mass and mid-range housing.

Chow said rents jumped 16.8 per cent in the low-end to mid-range market last year.

. . .

The demand for HK$100,000-per-month homes has dropped, causing a further softening in rents over the past four quarters

"The demand for HK$100,000-per-month homes has dropped, causing a further softening in rents over the past four quarters."

===

+continues: http://www.scmp.com/news/article/1206577/pay-cuts-foreign-bankers-slow-luxury-home-rent-rises-hong-kong

OffThePeak 12 yrs ago

(REPOSTED here from the Main thread - reason: relevance)

gdep, your comment:

"OTP today you can buy property in Mid level at 12-13k psf range.. around 5-10% premium to Taikoo Shing."

I don't doubt this possibility one bit - But I do wonder how representative a 5-10% premium would be for all of Mid-Levels?

.

Here are some figures for some Benchmark MId-Levels estates, as appear on the Centaline Index.

.

Week : CCLI--- : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast: Clovell: MLave // TaikSh. (all Psf, Gross)

====

.

04/21 : 118.71: 16,036 : 19,788 : 24,101 : 23,712: 20,909 / 11,878

/CCLI : 1.000 - : 135.01 : 166.69: 203.02: 199.75 : 176.14 / 100.06

.

Using the average of these Four Properties, ML is a 76% premium to Taikoo Shing.

.

So if TK hits $10,000 at CCLI-100, then ML properties (ave.of 4) would not be at $10,000, more likely: $17,600 psf.

And ML Gross-psf prices will not hit $10,000 until CCLI falls far below that. I calculate that CCLI would need to come down to maybe 57. That's an unlikely prospect IMHO.

.

Before leaving this, I also want to look at prices expressed in Per SF, Net - which follows:

.

Week : CCLI--- : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast: Clovell: MLave // TaikSh. (all Psf, Net)

====

.

Efficiency----- : 82.24%: 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%: 80.61%/ 87.31%

04/21 : 118.71: 19,500 : 25,062 : 30,791 : 28,399: 25,938 / 13,603

/CCLI : 1.000- : 164.27 : 211.12 : 259.38 : 239.23 : 218.50 / 114.59

OffThePeak 11 yrs ago

(For the record here, from the Main 2014 Property thread):

FOLLOW-up - from the other thread

(1)

Conte_Riccardo_Mancioni_di_Montalcini (23 hrs ago)

==========

Living off HK Island is not a compromise, it's an added bonus.

Every time I bring my small daughter to the playground I see new expat faces. Clearly there are more and more expats who realise that cleaner air, greener grass, and more space can be found off HK Island.

Does anybody have access to Bloomberg, and is able to plot the changes in price over the last 10 years between Kowloon Tong, HK Island, NT East and NT West? You will find that over the last 5 years (or even 10 years) HK Island has gone up slower than the other areas. HK Island is simply not a very attractive place to live. It's overcrowded, overpolluted, and all the other negative attributes you can come up with...

OffThePeak (21 hrs ago):

==========

In a way you can find it by comparing Centaline indicies, and running ratios

DATA

Week : -CCLI : RobinPl: Dynast: TaikSh .// ParkAv : Sorrent / C'ribC

Yr.End

2011--: 96.68 : 14,091 : 21,639 : : 9,877 /10,147 : 13,252 : 4,610 :

2012-: 115.78: 14,985 : 23,883 : 11,665 /11,161 : 16,316 : 6,053 :

2013-: 119.07: 14,407 : 23,181 : 10,936 /12,325 : 17,849 : 5,768 :

====

'11>

2012 : +19.8%:+6.34%:+10.4%:+18.1%/+9.99%:+23.1%:+31.3%

2013 : +23.2%:+2.24%:+7.13%:+10.7%/+21.5%:+34.7%:+25.1%

====

+ Sorrento, in Kowloon stage was the best performer: +34.7%

+ Robinson Place, in Mid-levels, HK isl. was the worst: +2.24%*

+ The cheap one, Taikoo Shing, was the best on HK Island: +10.7%

+ Caribbean Coast, in Tung Chung, imho: was pushed down,

by the launch of the Visionary, at lower prices than secondhand.

Example:

( I may run some Ratios later, when I have more time)

=======

* Look back to the thread from 1229 days ago (Aug. 2010),

"What's Wrong with Mid-Levels?":

http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/135960/whats-wrong-with-the-mid-levels?/

+ Over-Development

+ Air Pollution

+ Narrow Sidewalks

+ Traffic Jams

The Conclusion of the article:

"An area once praised for its privileged position in society with quiet streets, green areas, and open spaces, will soon be just another overcrowded and congested Hong Kong district. There is, however, one thing you can do, according to the think tank Designing Hong Kong: invest your money somewhere else - in a neighborhood that promises to be greener, more open and valuable in 20 years time."

OffThePeak 11 yrs ago

A new Mid-Levels? More crowded, More polluted?

here's why, maybe: Action seen on height limits in Pok Fu Lam

"An extra 20,000 flats, including public rental housing and those under HOS can eb built after the height restriction in Pok Fu Lam is relaxed or lifted, a source said."

"... Traffic capacity will increase after (the new) MTR lines start operation."

From page 2, in Today's HK Standard

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