Property prices in the immediate future?

Nobody can answer your question without the benefit of hindsight.


If it was me, I'd be asking whether I would regret the potential for lost upside if I sold now and missed further appreciation or the potential for selling at a lower price if the market declined when you delayed the sale. The fact that you would need to borrow if you don't sell in time adds to your risk.

I cant see how house prices could "collapse" in the next few months. It is mind boggling why some people believe that if they sold thier houses now, they could buy at 30% less in a years time?? Perhaps a slow down.. perhaps stable prices... but as antiflamer wrote and i agree, prices are still heading north. Well lets hope so in anycase!

If you are really worried then put your stuff in storage and move into a hostel/hotel. Believe me, it's a lot easier to sell a vacant flat - I have been in that situation before. You can tidy it up and give it a lick of paint (which mysteriously adds a a couple of 100,000 dollars). The better price should cover your accomodation costs but you'll have to pay up front. It's usually best to buy and sell at the same time as this reduces risk. I don't think prices will fall. China has 1.2 billion people and HK has 7m. If 0.15% of the Chinese population is rich then that's 2m people. If 10% of those but flats then that 200,000. Typically, they buy more than one and once they get the bug, they increase their portfolio. There is quite a back-log of demand and if they stop mainlanders buying then there is still quite a bit of pent up local demand. However, can't predict the future and you could hit a dip over the next few months if you are unlucky.

That's the risk with long completion dates.


I'm just about to complete on a new flat, which had a 6 month completion. Do what ever you feel comfortable with. Personally I cant see a massive drop in prices and my opinion is the market will remain pretty stable and so I brought again, but this is HK and no one has a crystal ball.


Some questions I asked myself, when I was in a similar position. If the market did drop, are you able to hold the first property and rent it out? Will the rent cover costs? What can I afford? There's no point in overstretching yourself financially, stressing out yourself and your wife, especially if you have a baby on the way.


Can you refinance the original property on todays (higher) valuation? I had this option with my last rental and I negotiated a reduced penalty period with standard chartered of 6 months, this gave me options of keeping the property or selling it 6 months later.


Good luck with it all!