The summer of 2020 may have been unexpectedly grim for Europe’s airlines, but winter could be worse. The slow recovery in passenger air traffic that began in early June is already over.
At the high point of that recovery, in late August, air traffic was still down 51%. But by then, covid cases were once again surging in many countries, prompting the governments of other countries to reintroduce travel restrictions and impose quarantine measures.
In the first two weeks of September, air traffic was down 53% compared to the same period in 2019. Intra-Europe flow remains 50% down compared to 2019 while all other flows are down 70%.
Passenger traffic has also started to fall from the dismally low levels in mid-August, with almost all major airports reporting a decrease: Madrid was down 16% from mid-August, Barcelona and Paris 14%, Athens 13%, Paris CDG 12%, Amsterdam 9%, London/Heathrow 7%, Frankfurt 6%, and Munich 5% from mid-August.
In the continued absence of cut-and-dry solutions, airlines are cutting back capacity even more. EUROCONTROL now expects the number of flights in Europe to be down 60% year over year by January, compared to its prior estimate of a 20% shortfall.
In its revised air traffic scenarios, it projects total flights this year of around 6 million — 55% below 2019’s total and a 1 million-trip reduction from its April forecast, resulting in total revenue losses for the industry of around €140 billion.
“We’re going backwards now and it’s really worrying for the entire industry,” said Eamonn Brennan, Director General of EUROCONTROL.
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