Taking Hits : Estates < Dec. 2012

TAKING HITS : Some Estates are now below end of Dec. 2012 prices

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The Centaline index is +1.67% above Dec.2012 levels. Call it "flat". But that is not true everywhere in HK. Some Estates have begun to take sizable "hits" in reported prices.


This thread is to track them, and understand why.


The HK property market is now highly illiquid, so the prices reported in the Weekly Index may not be as representative as they once were. (For instance, a low floor, poor layout flat may be 20% or more cheaper per sf than a high floor. So if the flat sold does not reflect the average, it may not be representative. And if only 1 or 2 flats are sold in a month, they may distort the reporting.)


Even so...

So sales are being reported at levels well below a year ago - and I thought this might be worth tracking.


If readers see low prices being reported, they may want to post them here - Or post reasons why the index price is not representative.


Here are Two Examples that I noticed from today's Centaline Report:


Sham Wan, Aberdeen : -5.36% : $ 9,364 vs. $ 9,894 (Dec. 2012)

chart--: http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/800x600q90/69/mbex.png

update: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=002450


The Zenith, Wanchai : -8.38% : $ 12,829 vs. $14,002 (Dec. 2012)

chart--: http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/800x600q90/199/5kqu.png

update: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=000650

Let's compare :


- these Estates with the General Index, and some other estates I am following


CCLI Index : 117.71 vs. 115.78 : +1.67%


Week/yr: CCLIdx : RobinPl: TaikSh./ IslHarb: ParkAv/C'ribC :

01/12/14: 117.71 : 14,391 : 11,331 / 10,222: 11,367 / 5,698 :

12/29/13: 119.07 : 14,407 : 10,936 / 10,783: 12,325 / 5,768 :

12/30/12: 115.78 : 14,985 : 11,665 / 10,432 : 11,161 / 6,053 :

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Last v.'12:+1.67%:- 3.96% :-2.86% /-2.01%: +1.85%/-5.86%


Want to Find More?:

Centaline Index : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

Historical Prices : http://202.72.14.52/p2/cci/SearchHistory.aspx

MORE DATA:

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Week/yr: CCLIdx : RobinPl: Zenith : TaikSh. : ShamW / IslHarb: ParkAv/C'ribC :

01/12/14: 117.71 : 14,391 : 12,829 : 11,331 : 09,364 : / 10,222: 11,367 / 5,698 :

12/29/13: 119.07 : 14,407 : 12,715 : 10,936 : 09,356 : / 10,783: 12,325 / 5,768 :

12/30/12: 115.78 : 14,985 : 14,002 : 11,665 : 09,894 : / 10,432 : 11,161 / 6,053 :

12/25/11: 096.68 : 14,091 : 11,798 : 09,877 : 08,510 : / 09,100 : 10,147 / ??

01/23/11: XXXXX : 13,877 : 10,334 : 09,502 : 07,723 : / 08,237 : 08,897 / ??

12/XX/10: XXXXX :

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Last v.'12:+1.67%:- 3.96% :-8.38%: -2.86% : - 5.36% /-2.01%: +1.85%/-5.86%


The SCMP reported this morning that average prices had hit a 52 week low.

Prices still need to come down further before I would be interested in buying again.

They may or may not fall much more.


I think that the Builders shares are (so far) telling us that there is very limited downside right now.


My guess is that the biggest falls from here will be concentrated in those areas where New Supply is coming on the market (as in Tung Ching), and buyers are directing their buying interest to the new properties. So those secondhand sellers who are motivated to sell, will have to cut prices to make their properties cheap attractive enough to gain a sale.



+ Zenith (-8.38%) had competition from The Avenue, and

+ Caribbean Coast (-5.86%) has competition from The Visionary

Here's another one which has taken a big hit:


Coastal Skyline, CC's neighbor in Tung Chung, which is also seeing competition from The Visionary.


chart-- : http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/800x600q90/89/8sa3.png

update : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=008510


+ Coastal Skyline : - 9.95% : $6,693 psf, compared with $7,433 (Dec. 2012)


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DATA

Week/yr: CCLIdx: TaikSh. : / ParkAv: Sorren/ C'ribC: Co'Sky

01/12/14: 117.71 : 11,331 : / 11,367: 17,440/ 5,698 : 6,693

12/29/13: 119.07 : 10,936 : / 12,325: 17,849/ 5,768 : 6,680

12/30/12: 115.78 : 11,665 : / 11,161: 16,316/ 6,053 : 7,433

12/25/11: 096.68 : 09,877 : / 10,147: 13,257/ 4,610 : 5,595

01/23/11: 091.21 : 09,502 : / 08,897: 14,00E/ 3,998 : 4,736

(estimates follow):

12/27/10: 088.38 : 09,200 : / 09,100 : 14,200/ 4,100 : 5,000

12/27/09: 073.23 : 07,800 : / 07,300 : 11,200/ 3,300 : 4,000

12/28/08: 056.78 : 05,600 : / 05,600 : 07,700/ 2,650 : 3,000

12/30/07: 066.98 : 07,000 : / 06,200 : 11,000/ 2,800 : 3,500

12/01/07: 053.48 : 05,300 : / 05,300 : 07,000/ 2,500 : 3,000

Week/yr: CCLIdx : TaikSh. : ShamW. / Sorren/ C'ribC : Co'Sky


What estates are you watching ?