Posted by
Ed
4 yrs ago
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In this thread we will document the economic impacts of the ongoing Covid-inspired global lockdowns:
Hertz is preparing for a potential bankruptcy filing, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.
The situation is fluid, sources told the paper, as the company hopes to reduce lease payments by May 4.
The company laid off 10,000 employees – more than a quarter of its total workforce – in April.
Car-rental company Hertz is preparing for a potential bankruptcy filing, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, as the coronavirus pandemic brings nearly all travel to a standstill.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Week 6 of the Collapse of the U.S. Labor Market
Gut-wrenching 30.3 Million Initial Unemployment Claims in six weeks. Florida ascends to Number One as it tries to catch up. “Insured unemployment rates” already over 20% in some states as of Apr 11.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Mortgage Forbearance Balloons, Home Sales Plunge
In addition to logistical difficulties of selling a home in the era of social distancing, there is the explosion of a historic unemployment crisis.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Dividend Massacre in This Crisis is Already Breaking Records, But it Just Started
The old saw that dividend stocks are good for bear markets is actually a high-risk gamble.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
What Manufacturing Executives Said About Their Business in this Economy
“Builders want extensions on their accounts and ask for better margins. Buyers are down by 50% to 60%. Employees are scared and do not want to work. Everything we do takes twice as long.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Coronavirus: pilots ‘devastated’ as British Airways set to slash up to 12,000 jobs
A pilots' trade union said British Airways staff were “devastated” after the airline's owner announced plans for up to 12,000 redundancies.
“In light of the impact of Covid-19 on current operations and the expectation that the recovery of passenger demand to 2019 levels will take several years, British Airways is formally notifying its trade unions about a proposed restructuring and redundancy programme,” International Consolidated Airline Group (IAG) said.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
“Investor confidence in European ETFs has taken a hit during the coronavirus sell-off with funds seeing higher redemptions than their “darkest days” during the global financial crisis.”
“The oil crash is blocking American frackers from accessing the cheap credit that fueled their prolific rise. That reversal of fortunes could prove fatal for overleveraged shale oil companies.”
“China’s factory activity unexpectedly shrank in April, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday, as the coronavirus pandemic shattered global demand, causing a substantial drop in export orders and more layoffs.”
“The International Energy Agency said Thursday it expects global energy demand to plunge this year in what the Paris-based agency called the biggest drop since World War II.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
“The demand-side impact… clearly dominates the economic outlook. Shutting large portions of the economy resulted in a collapse in spending and surging unemployment. “Not only do we have a collapse in demand, but the eventual rebound in activity is likely to be anemic, too.”
“France saw its sharpest economic contraction since World War II in the first quarter as a lockdown from mid-March left shops shuttered and consumers hunkered down at home, official data showed on Thursday.”
“UK Manufacturing output has fallen below 60 per cent of capacity to the lowest level since records began 40 years ago reflecting the closure and cutbacks at UK factories in response to the coronavirus outbreak.
“The extent of the damage to the economy from lockdown was further underlined by data showing confidence in the services sector also slumped to a record low, raising the spectre of a spike in job losses.”
“While the world grapples with the coronavirus pandemic, the head of the United Nations food agency warned on Tuesday that a looming “hunger pandemic” will bring “the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II.”
“Famine in as many as three dozen countries is “a very real and dangerous possibility” due to ongoing wars and conflicts, economic crises and natural disasters, World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley told the U.N. Security Council during a virtual briefing.”
“The slump in [China’s] profit growth over the first three months of 2020 was led mainly by fuel processing plants, which fell 187.9% annualized after falling 42.5% last year; auto manufacturing fell 80.2% versus -15.9% in the same period last year; chemical products manufacturing fell 56.5% versus -25.6%; and ferrous metals manufacturing fell 55.7% from -37.6% a year ago.
“The continued contraction in industrial profits could weigh on manufacturing investment, employment and fiscal revenue.”
“China’s factory activity unexpectedly shrank in April, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday, as the coronavirus pandemic shattered global demand, causing a substantial drop in export orders and more layoffs.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
“Research firm DigiTimes has published a report that projects a massive 15% decrease in global smartphone sales, bringing the numbers down to 1.15 billion units. Brands that have a larger presence in the United States and Europe… will bear the maximum brunt.”
The LNG Market Is “Imploding”
While everyone is watching the meltdown in the crude oil market, the global market for natural gas is also cratering.
How the Unicorn Blowup & Oil Bust Bleed into Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities
CMBS get to eat it all: Amid overvalued vacant collateral, there is a new thingy: Tenants delaying rent payments and landlords asking for forbearance.
Used-Vehicle Wholesale Volume Collapsed, Prices Drop: Mega-Pain for Automakers, Leasing Companies, Rental-Car Companies, Banks, Bondholders, Stockholders
No one has ever seen a mess like this before.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Tourism in Southern Europe, Accounting for 13%-21% of GDP, is on its Knees. When Will it Get Back Up Again?
“First sector to be afflicted by the virus crisis and, unlike other crises, likely the last to recover from it.” And these economies are still incredibly fragile, even eight years after the last crisis.
Housing Market under COVID-19: Regular Folks Retreat, Foreign Investors Blocked, Large US Investors Gone, iBuyers Frozen
Demand is a lot weaker in some places than in others. Here are the 20 cities with the largest drops.
How Far Will the U.S. Economy Plunge During Lockdown?
“Three times deeper than the Great Recession?”
Mainland Chinese Stop Buying Hong Kong Residential Properties, Try to Unload What They Have, Prices Follow
“Some forced selling is highly likely.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
'We'll starve to death if this continues'
Half of the world's workers could lose their jobs because of this pandemic, the International Labour Organisation has said.
That's 1.6 billion people but who are they?
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Ed
4 yrs ago
The auto industry — already fretting lengthy factory shutdowns and depressed new-vehicle demand — is starting to sound the alarm about a potential used-car price collapse that could have far-reaching consequences for manufacturers, lenders and rental companies.
Bali economy collapses despite holiday hotspot escaping worst of coronavirus pandemic
Coronavirus is having a “catastrophic” impact on Bali despite the fact it has recorded just three deaths from the disease.
The Indonesian province appears to be escaping the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a total of just 135 infections, but is still experiencing a huge economic fallout in what the head of the Indonesia Institute has labelled a “really cruel twist”.
Coronavirus: Millions in India facing hunger during COVID-19 lockdown measures
The World Food Programme has said the coronavirus outbreak could cause "multiple famines of biblical proportions".
Philippines: Covid-19 will devastate the poor
In Manila, as in many other places, the Covid-19 pandemic is hitting the poor the hardest and exposing. “If the poor go hungry”, Villanueva warned, “chaos will follow”.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
COVID-19 Will Wreck The Car Industry
Summary
The short and long term effects of the pandemic on the car industry are going to be disastrous.
The car industry is likely to be hit much worse than other parts of the economy – and this is NOT priced in already.
I will show you why the car industry will continue to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic even after the pandemic has been overcome.
I recommend selling your car-related stocks.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Zoo animals in Indonesia face starvation as a result of Covid-19 closures
Thousands of animals are facing starvation at Indonesia's zoos as the global pandemic pushes shuttered facilities toward collapse. Sixty cash-strapped parks, housing 70,000 animals, across Indonesia have been closed since mid-March. Most say they will be out of food by the middle of May.
The coronavirus outbreak has triggered unprecedented mass layoffs and furloughs. Here are the major companies that have announced they are downsizing their workforces.
- Boeing announced that it would cut about 10% of its workforce — or about 16,000 jobs — on April 29. The cuts are expected to be through a combination of buyouts, voluntary layoffs, and involuntary layoffs.
- Hertz said it plans to lay off 10,000 employees on April 20. The car rental company previously employed 38,000 people.
- On April 12, a union representing workers at Walt Disney World said the company will be furloughing 43,000 employees starting April 19. The amusement parks have been closed since March 16 and 200 essential workers will continue maintaining them.
- JCPenney has already started furloughing workers and confirmed it would continue to furlough a "significant portion" of its 85,000 employees as of April 5.
- On April 3, Under Armour announced that it will temporarily lay off about 6,700 employees starting April 12.
- Macy's CEO Jeff Gennette informed his staff via email that the company would be furloughing most of its 125,000 employees on March 30. The company only plans to have work for "the minimum number of employees necessary to maintain basic business operations" across Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury, Gennette wrote. He will stop receiving his salary, along with the rest of the board of directors.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Half of Queenstown Residents Apply for Welfare - $500,000 Food Vouchers Distributed
AsiaXPAT (Queenstown) The total population of Queenstown is roughly 40,000. Assume half of them are too young to be eligible for welfare. 10,000 applications have been received for welfare aid which translates into approximately half of all adults in Queenstown. Read More
This situation is set to worsen as the New Zealand policy regarding Covid is to completely eliminate the virus domestically then disallow all international travellers from countries where Covid is still present.
AsiaXPAT recently communicated with a WHO scientist who made the following comment off the record:
“Ah, NZ! They are fascinating. I am sure they will manage to stamp out the virus. And then they will have to have a 2-week quarantine for anyone who enters the country for the next 30 years or so. Will do wonders for tourism”
When asked to respond to this assertion, Professor Nick Wilson, Director, Burden of Disease Epidemiology of the University of Otago NZ and one of the architects of Jessica Ardern's total lockdown policy stated:
“If we can achieve elimination and open up the NZ economy – we would still need quarantine (but we could have a Trans-Tasman bubble with Australia).
But this would probably be better for the economy than using an ongoing suppression strategy with varying degrees of lock-down (as other countries might need to do).
Also it might be that at some point we can remove quarantine procedures (e.g. if there is a good antibody test – we could potentially use that instead of quarantine). There is also the issue that international tourism has effectively ended for a while – regardless of NZ’s border control. So tourism sectors are in big trouble in every country at present.”
AsiaXPAT contacted another prominent New Zealand epidemiologist, who commented off the record on this strategy stating:
"Yes, I agree that the virus may be eliminated once it has spread through the New Zealand population and immunity has been gained in the majority of people. This is the herd immunity concept.
At present, the government is claiming it can eliminate the virus with unknown immune state of the population. I think, without tests of immunity, elimination is unlikely unless the virus has already infected the majority of New Zealanders. Without testing for antibodies, it is hard to know what immune state our population is in.
Other countries with initially effective suppression are now experiencing second waves of the virus, such as Taiwan and Singapore. With measles for example, we were only able to eliminate it once it had spread through a large number of susceptible cases. For measles, we have a vaccine, and older adults are immune.
I don't believe it is realistic to eliminate a virus with so many asymptomatic infections, without a vaccine."
Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City, said in a recent interview:
“What people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.
You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians—anybody.
People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts, and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.”
Asked about Anthony Fauci, the White House medical expert who for weeks has been predicting significant numbers of COVID-19 deaths in America as well as major ongoing disruptions to daily life possibly for years, Wittkowski replied:
“Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”
New Zealand recently extended its extreme Covid lockdown for another 3 weeks.
The New Zealand government is not recommending the use of face coverings even though the Centre for Disease Control website
specifically states, "the CDC recommends that people wear a cloth face covering to cover their nose and mouth" to prevent the spread of Covid.
A team of scientists in New Zealand is urging the government to immediately drop the Lockdown to Level 2 to prevent further damage to the country's economy. The data and rationale behind this advice can be found on this
Plan B document.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Macau’s April gambling revenue falls 97 per cent amid travel bans
Gross gaming revenue plummeted by an unprecedented 97 per cent to 754 million patacas (US$95 million) in April. The plunge last month was 3 percentage points worse than analysts’ expectation.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
UK Coronavirus: 'We go hungry so we can feed our children'
Many families are struggling to put food on the table as the coronavirus lockdown robs them of their income. A report by food bank charities points to an alarming rise in the number of people in need of essential supplies. How are they coping and what more can be done to help?
"We have gone without meals so the children can eat. It isn't nice when you are feeling hungry and you open the cupboard and there is nothing in there for you."
Amie Smith and her partner Marcus were just about getting by before the coronavirus lockdown. Now they have had to give up their zero hours contract jobs and are relying on universal credit payments, food vouchers from the government and the occasional food parcel from local schools.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Biggest India Carmaker Clocks Zero Sales in April
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., which produces more than half the cars on India’s roads, recorded no sales in the domestic market last month after output was shuttered.
The nation’s biggest carmaker was forced to shut factories as India imposed the world’s biggest stay-at-home restrictions to control the outbreak of coronavirus. Lost production is costing the industry 23 billion rupees ($306 million) for each day factories remain closed, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
As ‘quarantine fatigue’ spreads, Fauci says second wave of coronavirus is ‘inevitable’
As antsy Americans show growing signs of “quarantine fatigue” and officials face pressure to ease coronavirus restrictions, factories, malls and state governments in many parts of the country are taking steps toward reopening.
But Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said a second wave of infections is “inevitable” in the United States, which has recorded more than 1 million confirmed cases — nearly one-third of the global total. Fauci also warned that “we could be in for a bad fall and a bad winter” if the right countermeasures aren’t put in place.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Coronavirus: Seven million Afghan children risk hunger
“More than seven million children in Afghanistan are at risk of hunger as food prices soar due to the coronavirus pandemic, a report warns. “A Save the Children spokesman said the country faced a “perfect storm of hunger, disease and death” unless the international community took action.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
The Pandemic Crisis Erupts Into Riots in the North Caucasus
“The North Caucasus is beginning to show signs of destabilization, as pandemic-related restrictions and a poor economy expose societal fault lines. Regional governments imposed draconian self-isolation measures to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus but provided little or no relief to struggling businesses and individuals.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
When Will International Air Travel Resume?
Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician and professor of clinical medicine at the Australian National University Medical School stated in this
Bloomberg interview:
"International travel will be off the table for at least six months. I think travelers will be quarantined for two weeks here in Australia. We really need more information before we can know when to lift restrictions. I suspect we will find travel insurance won’t cover people. I can’t imagine international travel as a tourist is going to be on the horizon in under six months."
I have the highest level of travel insurance available and was informed two months ago that I would not be covered if I was hospitalized with Covid while traveling.
Global airlines' estimated COVID-19 losses rise to $314 billion Read More
Should the international travel stoppages persist for 'at least 6 months' these losses will increase dramatically.
How hard will the coronavirus hit the travel industry?
If the pandemic continues for
several more months, the World Travel and Tourism Council, the trade group representing major global travel companies, projects a global loss of 75 million jobs and $2.1 trillion in revenue.
Read More
'at least 6 months' is already more than 'several more months' so expect trillions more in losses from hotels, airlines and other travel-related businesses.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Meanwhile debating the efficacy of lockdowns, even if the debate includes hard data, is
taboo.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Hong Kong’s business elite are cashing in their luxury villas at a loss as they brace for the city’s worst economic recession
Some of Hong Kong’s wealthy property owners are cashing in their luxury houses, often slashing the price to sell at a loss, as the city faces the threat of its worst recession ever.
Many of them are company owners and executives looking to free up much-needed cash to keep their businesses going as the coronavirus pandemic ravages the economy, according to property agents.
“People are losing jobs or getting pay cuts because their companies are not doing well. Thus the business owners, who are the major purchasing force of these luxury homes, are not doing well either and some may already be seeing liquidity problems and need quick money to stop bleeding,” said Vincent Cheung, managing director of Vincorn Consulting and Appraisal.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
SUVs Get Parked in the Sea, Revealing Scope of U.S. Auto Market Glut
The length of almost two football fields, the cargo ship Jupiter Spirit arrived in Los Angeles’ harbor on April 24 after an almost three-week journey from Japan, ready to unload its cargo of about 2,000 Nissan Armada SUVs, Rogue crossovers and Infiniti sedans in a quick, half-day operation.
But when the ship, operated by Nissan Motor Co.’s freight arm, got about a mile offshore, its captain was ordered to drop anchor. And there the ship remained for almost a week -- a floating symbol of an unprecedented logjam as nearby storage lots covering hundreds of acres overflowed with vehicles that Americans suddenly have little desire to purchase.
There are gluts of all shapes and kinds forming in the U.S. nowadays, a testament to the scope of the economic pain the coronavirus is inflicting. Slaughterhouses are killing and tossing out thousands of pigs a day, dairy farmers are pouring away milk, oil sellers were paying buyers to take barrels off their hands last week, and now, brand-new cars are being left adrift at sea for days.
For the auto industry, the crisis has left cars gathering dust on dealer lots, dealerships shuttered, auction prices slipping and tens of thousands of workers laid off or furloughed. April U.S. sales plummeted 54% for Toyota Motor Corp., 47% for Subaru Corp. and 39% for Hyundai Motor Co.
“Dealers aren’t really accepting cars and fleet sales are down because rental-car and fleet operators aren’t taking delivery either,” said John Felitto, a senior vice president for the U.S. unit of Norwegian shipping company Wallenius Wilhelmsen.
“This is different from anything we’ve seen before. Everyone is full to the brim.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Covid-19’s Third Shock Wave: The Global Food Crisis
Many people are already going hungry in the United States; many more will face hunger or starvation in other parts of the world.
“Major world disasters produce multiple ripple effects. Like a powerful tsunami, they trigger one shock wave after another, each producing injury and mayhem. In the case of Covid-19, the first wave was the global health crisis, still spreading around the world.
“Next came the stay-at-home requirements and the resulting shutdown of the world economy, resulting in massive job layoffs everywhere. These, in turn, are producing a third wave, possibly even more catastrophic in its outcome: the collapse of global food-supply systems and widespread human starvation.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
'We cannot go back': General Community Quarantine is the 'new normal,' Malacañang says
In an interview with DZMM on Sunday morning, presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said that the Philippines cannot return to life as usual because of the overwhelming effects of the global pandemic.
“We are no longer back to normal as we know it po. The GCQ is already that, it is the new normal. For as long as there is still no vaccine, we cannot go back to normal as we know it,” he said in a mix of English and Filipino.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Thousands of desperately hungry people queued for hours for food aid in a line that stretched across two and a half miles in South Africa
Lockdown in the city of Centurion, just outside Johannesburg, has lasted just over five weeks so far, crushing businesses and leaving the poorest unable to eat. Drone footage revealed the scale of the queue for food after private businesses donated 8,000 hampers to the informal settlement of Mooiplaas.
The number of packages was described as a ‘drop in the ocean’ for what is actually needed by the communities hit hardest during the pandemic.
Read More
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Clocks Massive $50 billion loss due to Coronavirus Lockdowns
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday posted a record net loss of nearly $50 billion as the coronavirus pandemic pummeled its common stock investments.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Spain admits it is in deep fiscal trouble and Italy is in Worse Trouble
An economic collapse is underway. Spain officially sent to the European Union a request for a bailout this year and a new era of adjustments starting in 2021 in order to make sustainable the gigantic jump in public debt.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Lockdown Impacts on Oil Producers: Bone-Chilling Collapse in US Demand for Gasoline, Jet Fuel, and Diesel
Oil companies are reporting financial fiascos every day: Today Exxon reported its first quarterly loss since 1999 ($610 million), on a “market-related” $2.9 billion write-down. “We’ve never seen anything like what the world is facing today,” CEO Darren Woods said.
On Thursday, Texas-based shale-driller Concho Resources reported a quarterly loss of $9.3 billion, after writing down the value of its oil and gas assets by $12.6 billion.
Also on Thursday, it was reported that Oklahoma-based Chesapeake Energy, a pioneer in shale-drilling, was preparing to file for bankruptcy (what’s taking so long?).
Still on Thursday, Royal Dutch Shell shocked the markets when it announced that it would reduce its dividend for the first time since 1945 (by 66% from $0.47 to $0.16). “The duration of these impacts remains unclear with the expectation that the weaker conditions will likely extend beyond 2020,” the statement said.
The already beaten-up shares plunged another 17% in two days. Shares are down 47% year to date.
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/01/the-bone-chilling-collapse-in-demand-for-gasoline-jet-fuel-and-diesel-in-the-us-in-charts/
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Weary Algerians fear fresh economic turmoil as oil prices dive
Algerians are watching the collapse of oil prices with alarm as the energy markets on which the North African nation relies for most of its export revenues have been plunged into turmoil by the coronavirus crisis.
The oil and gas producer has burnt through more than half its foreign currency reserves since 2014, when an earlier oil price rout began, while this year’s budget outlined a 9% cut in spending but was based on oil prices double today’s levels.
The economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which has sent global demand for crude into tailspin, threatens to fling Algeria into a new crisis after a year of political upheaval and mass protests that forced a veteran president from power.
“We will soon start to feel a big crisis unless oil prices go back up,” said Halim Cherifi, a banker in Algiers.
Algeria’s Saharan Blend is now trading at less than $20 a barrel, while this year’s austerity budget was based on a price of $50 a barrel. Benchmark international crudes are trading at their lowest in about two decades.
With lockdowns set to continue indefinitely, and a V-recovery impossible, it is hard to see how oil prices will rise significantly any time soon, and bail producers like Algeria out of this desperate situation.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Warren Buffett : Berkshire sold all its airline stocks because of Coronavirus Lockdowns
Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and billionaire value investor Warren Buffett said that the conglomerate has sold the entirety of its equity position in the U.S. airline industry. The prior stake, worth north of $4 billion dollars in December, included positions in United, American, Southwest and Delta Airlines.
“The world has changed for the airlines. And I don’t know how it’s changed and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way,” he said during Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday, which was virtual this year.
But “I think there are certain industries, and unfortunately, I think that the airline industry, among others, that are really hurt by a forced shutdown by events that are far beyond our control,” he added.
Demand for air travel has plunged since March as the virus and precautions like shelter-in-place orders keep potential passengers home. Asked by CNBC’s Becky Quick to clarify if Berkshire had sold all of its airline holdings, Buffett answered “yes.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
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The Dire Impact of an Extreme Lockdown on a New Zealand Tourist Town
AsiaXPAT (Queenstown) New Zealand has endured 5 weeks of Level 4 Extreme Lockdown during which only supermarkets, petrol stations and medical facilities were open. Online shopping and food delivery services were not permitted.
Citizens have only been allowed out of their ‘bubbles’ to exercise, purchase food or receive medical care. New Zealand moved to a Level 3 Lockdown last week and food delivery and online shopping is now permitted. Otherwise the country continues to be is locked up tight with no domestic or international travel permitted.
A restaurant operator in Queenstown informed AsiaXPAT yesterday that the impact on this tourist town of 40,000 is enormous:
“One of the largest employers in Queenstown, operator of half a dozen major tourism businesses, will not re-open even if NZ lowers the Covid-lockdown to Level 2.
They are planning to release most employees when the government wage subsidies end in early June. They will not consider re-opening for at least a year.
The biggest food and beverage group in town will only reopen 4 outlets and only on weekends for dinner. They are expected to abandon their other restaurant and bar leases.
These guys are well-financed so if they are not opening outlets, then Queenstown will be a ghost town as other retailers and F&B who rely heavily on tourism, follow suit.
Approximately half of all adults in Queenstown have applied for welfare so will not be in a position to support local businesses.
Most property projects from new hotels to villa developments and other tourist accommodation have been mothballed. Once the tradesmen finish what’s in the pipeline they will struggle to find work. Many will likely end up on welfare.
There will be a glut of residential property as foreclosed homes are dumped onto the market. This is already happening and at some point will decimate prices.
Buyers are unlikely to surface in significant numbers given so many people are out of work and the prospects for a pickup in Queenstown tourism are uncertain.
The local Council is going to be hammered as tax revenues are set to collapse.”
UPDATE: NZ Government preparing for 300,000 new benefit applications -
leaked documents
Similar situations will be transpiring across the world's popular tourist destinations as the lockdowns continue indefinitely.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Japanese Island Forced Back Into Lockdown After New Coronavirus Wave Strikes
Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido — the first area of the country to see a major coronavirus outbreak — was forced back into lockdown after lifting its stringent restrictions too early, according to new reports.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Fauci warns protesters about dangers of ending lockdowns prematurely: 'It's going to backfire'
Asked for his message to those protesting, Fauci told ABC, "The message is that clearly this is something that is hurting from the standpoint of economics ... but unless we get the virus under control, the real recovery, economically, is not going to happen."
"If you jump the gun, and go into a situation where you have a big spike, you're going to set yourself back," he said. "So as painful as it is to go by the careful guidelines of gradually phasing into a reopening — it's going to backfire. That's the problem."
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Locked Down India Faces Mass Famine
“The reality is that a lockdown is not a cure, nor does it stop the spread of the virus. A lockdown is a pause, it may slow the spread of the virus…"
“We will never know how many people died of starvation [in India], because no state government will admit to starvation deaths.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
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“The virus of poverty, hunger, and bankruptcy is more dangerous than any other virus.”
“With these words, the Chairperson of the Syrian regime’s Federation of Industry and a member of the Syrian parliament, Fares al-Shihabi, has responded to the preventive economic measures taken by the Syrian regime’s government in the past few weeks to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Coronavirus Lockdowns : Rolls-Royce 'to cut up to 8,000 jobs'
The aeroplane engine maker employs 52,000 people worldwide, with 23,000 staff in the UK.According to a company source, senior leaders have warned "cuts could be as high as 8,000, but efforts to mitigate the impact are ongoing".
It had announced plans to save £750m but now "needs to take further action".
Rolls-Royce is expected to tell staff the actual number of job losses by the end of May.
The aviation industry has been badly hit by the pandemic as many flights across the world have been suspended.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Coronavirus Lockdowns: Half world's workers may see livelihood destroyed
The International Labour Organisation's updated analysis emphasises its severe impact on people in informal work.It says many have already suffered massive damage to their capacity to earn a living.
Without alternative income, these workers and their families would have no means to survive, it says.
The new analysis says 1.6 billion people's livelihoods are threatened by the virus, equivalent to almost half the global workforce.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
LOCKDOWNS HIT HAR - RYANAIR SAYS NO HOLIDAY FLIGHTS UNTIL JULY AND CUTS UP TO 3,000 JOBS
“Europe’s biggest budget airline has said that it will not be running more than a skeleton service until July – and even then, only around half the expected passengers will travel.
Ryanair says it will cut up to 3,000 jobs [15% of its staff], mainly pilots and cabin crew, in response to the coronavirus pandemic. It will also impose unpaid leave and pay cuts of up to 20 per cent, and close some bases, “until traffic recovers”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
What are the Alternatives to Lockdowns?
As Europe and North America continue suffering their steady economic and social decline as a direct result of imposing ‘lockdown’ on their populations, other countries have taken a different approach to dealing with the coronavirus threat.
You wouldn’t know it by listening to western politicians or mainstream media stenographers, there are also nonlockdown countries. They are led by Sweden, Iceland, Belarus, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
Surprisingly to some, their results have been as good or better than the lockdown countries, but without having to endure the socio-economic chaos we are now witnessing across the world.
For this reason alone, Sweden and others like them, have already won the policy debate, as well as the scientific one too.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
‘Will we die of hunger?’: how Covid-19 lockdowns imperil street children
For millions of young people, coronavirus restrictions have made access to food, water and shelter even more precarious
Timothy, a teenager on the streets of Mombasa, wonders how he will eat. “Rich people can stay home … because they have a store well stocked with food,” he says. “For a survivor on the street your store is your stomach.”
However, says another, if the rumours are true and street children are arrested in the city during the Covid-19 crisis, he’d be happy to go to Shimo women’s prison, because there “you are sure to get free food, shelter and medical services”.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Fauci - No Return to Normal Until there are No New Cases or New Deaths
The US needs to brace for an extended period of lockdowns and restrictions according to this interview with Anthony Fauci.
As most people infected with Covid exhibit minimal or no symptoms at all, it will be very difficult to eliminate the virus. Even if that can be achieved, the United States would need to seal its borders until all other countries have eliminated Covid, otherwise the US will get re-infected.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
"I'm starving now": World faces unprecedented hunger crisis amid Covid Lockdowns
Millions around the world desperate for food -
Watch Video
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Pandemic slams Asia's factories, activity hits financial crisis lows
“Asia’s factory activity was ravaged in April, business surveys showed on Monday, and the outlook dimmed further as government restrictions on movement to contain the coronavirus outbreak froze global production and slashed demand.”
A series of Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) from IHS Markit fell deeper into contraction from March, with some diving to all-time lows and others hitting levels last seen during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.
Coronavirus Lockdowns : EU factories' record slump sparks highest lay-offs since 2009
Factories across Europe have suffered their bleakest month in decades as the coronavirus crisis has wreaked havoc with supply chains, production and demand, new figures show.
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J. Crew files for bankruptcy as preppy retailer succumbs to COVID-19 Lockdown
J. Crew Group Inc filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday with a plan to hand over control to lenders, adding to a list of brick-and-mortar retailers pushed to the brink by widespread store closures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Hong Kong records its worst-ever economic downturn
Tourism and retail spending, two big contributors to Hong Kong's economy, were hit by the COVID Lockdown and months of protests.
Hong Kong's economy recorded in the first quarter its deepest annual contraction since at least 1974, as the coronavirus pandemic dealt a heavy blow to business activity, already in decline following months of anti-government protest last year.
The economy contracted 8.9 percent on an annual basis, compared with a revised 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. That was the steepest contraction for a single quarter since records began in 1974, the government said.
Lockdown - Italian Car Sales Plunged 98% In April
You can't get much more of a "worse case scenario" in auto sales than watching numbers plunge an astounding 98%. But that's exactly what has happened with new car sales in Italy, which remains mostly on lockdown, for the first 24 days of April for this year.
Across all sales channels in Italy, there were only 2,182 registrations, down from 107,930 the year prior, according to Automotive News Europe.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Airlines begin to Collapse around the World
In the US, flight volumes across all cities have dropped by at least 96% with some dropping 99%
https://youtu.be/mJmqssxtxe0
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Many Chinese Export Companies Face Bankruptcy
“A company boss told employees that in south China, 80 percent of private companies rely on exports to survive. Now that these companies are losing their overseas customers from Europe and North America, a huge wave of layoffs is foreseeable.
“As long as the United States is struggling to combat the pandemic, there will be no improvement for China’s economy. Our business model is to produce about 85 to 90 percent of our products for export.
In south China, 80 percent of private companies rely on exports, just like our company. How can we ever rely on China’s domestic demand? All our production is geared for export.
“No export means bankrupt factories. Bankruptcy means the Chinese will become jobless and not have income. It’s a chain reaction.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Airbnb To Lay Off 1,900 Employees As Lockdowns Collapse Tourism Industry
Airbnb is cutting nearly a quarter of its staff — 1,900 employees — as its revenue forecasts fall to be "less than half" of what it made in 2019.
The company, which has raised $2 billion in the last month, is having to make cuts across the business and will be pausing its transportation and studios business lines, according to a memo sent out by Brian Chesky and announced at an all-hands meeting on Tuesday.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
The Lockdowns Must Continue Otherwise It's Murder
Reporter: “These are regular people who are not getting a paycheck and they’re saying that they don’t have time to wait for all of this testing and they need to get back to work in order to feed their families. Their savings are running out, they don’t have another week, they’re not getting answers, so their point is the cure can’t be worse than the illness itself, what is you’re response to them?Gov. Cuomo: The illness is death, what is worse than death?
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Ed
4 yrs ago
A University of Auckland Epidemiologist's Take on Covid 19
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Subprime Auto Loans Already Exploded in Pre-Covid-19 Good Times. With 30 Million Unemployed, Even Prime Loans Will Sour
"Delinquencies will now explode through the ceiling"
In April, specialized subprime lenders started reporting surging delinquencies and plunging new business.
Among the first was Credit Acceptance Corp [
CACC] when it disclosed in an
SEC filing on April 20 that it was getting hit due to the sudden job losses, as consumers were “delaying payments or re-allocating resources, leading to a significant decrease in our realized collections.”
It complained of a sudden drop in new business as consumer demand for vehicles fizzled. And this toxic mix of the surging delinquencies and dropping new business, it warned, “could cause a material adverse effect on our financial position, liquidity, and results of operations.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Retail Landlords Reel as Big Luxury Brands Threaten to Close Stores if Rents Aren’t Slashed
A source who is familiar with the situation told me that some of the luxury brands have made their respective landlords a brutal ultimatum: either reduce the rent by 75% or tie it intrinsically to the sales generated by the store, which right now is essentially zero.
Otherwise, they will shut the shop.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Lockdown Causes India’s Services Activity Collapses
The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index for April came in at 5.4 — an “extreme decline” from previous month’s 49.3 and way below a Reuters poll forecast of 40, according to the latest data release.
IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, described last month’s reading as an “extreme decline” and “the most severe contraction in services output since records began in December 2005.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Lockdown Causes India’s Services Activity to Collapse
The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index for April came in at 5.4 — an “extreme decline” from previous month’s 49.3 and way below a Reuters poll forecast of 40, according to the latest data release.
IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, described last month’s reading as an “extreme decline” and “the most severe contraction in services output since records began in December 2005.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Service Sector Falls Off Cliff in the Eurozone, Manufacturing Not Far Behind
The IHS Markit Services PMI for the Eurozone collapsed from an all-time historic low in March (26.4) to a catastrophic 12.0 in April. Note the cute little dimple of big-bad Financial Crisis 1, that had bottomed out at 39.2 (below 50 means contraction)
The service sectors of Italy, Spain, and France collapsed by the most – the countries with the most draconian lockdowns, where people were essentially cooped up at home for weeks, in response to some of the worst outbreaks of The Virus. The IHS Markit Services PMI by country:
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Exclusive: Lord & Taylor to liquidate its stores as soon as they reopen
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Venerable U.S. retailer Lord & Taylor plans to liquidate inventory in its 38 department stores once restrictions to curb the spread of coronavirus are lifted as it braces for a bankruptcy process from which it does not expect to emerge, people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
Lord & Taylor’s preparations to liquidate its inventory as soon as its stores reopen offer a window into the grim future of a high-profile retailer - a storied department store chain founded in 1826 and billed as the oldest in the United States - that does not expect to survive the Covid Lockdown.
Retailers that pursue a liquidation hold “going out of business” sales in order to generate cash, and their stores often become magnets for consumers looking for bargains.
Lord & Taylor is holding off on a bankruptcy filing and subsequent liquidation until it can reopen its stores to attract those shoppers, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Lord & Taylor has lined up liquidators to help it run the “going out of business” sales and is girding to permanently close all its stores once the merchandise is sold.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Red Flags Signal Desperation in Colombia
"We're not going to die of coronavirus but starvation," is the phrase summarizing the situation.
Faced with the inability of President Ivan Duque administration to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, Colombians are displaying red cloths on windows to express their dissatisfaction.
"They said to take out red rags if people needed help. Today the red rag seems to be the new flag in the most humble neighborhoods. Hunger is not quarantined," said cartoonist Alex Ro, as reported by local outlet Las2Orillas.
The red rags placement started in some Spanish cities to notify that the inhabitants of a house had some kind of urgent need.
This idea reached Colombia, a South American country where the first reports of red-rag users happened in Soacha city, in the department of Cundinamarca.
Promoted by the mayor of this municipality in late March, this signal was initially aimed at warning that a vulnerable family had an urgent and unmet need.
"Red rags are seen in cities like Bogota, Barranquilla, and Medellin. People have waited patiently for government aid... However, the despair is so great that protests throughout the country occurred this Wednesday," local outlet MC explained and reported that banners say, "We are not going to die of coronavirus but starvation."
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Ed
4 yrs ago
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‘If this thing boomerangs’: Experts warn of second wave of coronavirus infections
As Europe and the US loosen their lockdowns against the coronavirus, health experts are expressing growing dread over what they say is an all-but-certain second wave of deaths and infections that could force governments to clamp back down.
“We’re risking a backslide that will be intolerable,” said Dr. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University’s Centre for Infection and Immunity.
Around the world, German authorities began drawing up plans in case of a resurgence of the virus. Experts in Italy urged intensified efforts to identify new victims and trace their contacts. And France, which hasn’t yet eased its lockdown, has already worked up a “reconfinement plan” in the event of a new wave.
“There will be a second wave, but the problem is to which extent. Is it a small wave or a big wave? It’s too early to say,” said Olivier Schwartz, head of the virus unit at France’s Pasteur Institute.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
US National Debt Spiked by $1.5 trillion in 6 Weeks, to $25 trillion. Fed Monetized 90%
The US gross national debt – the total of all Treasury securities outstanding – jumped by $1.05 trillion with a T in the four weeks since April 7 and by $1.54 trillion in the six weeks since March 23, to $25.06 trillion, the Treasury department reported today.
Those trillions are whizzing by so fast it’s hard to even seen them. WOOSH… What was that? Oh, just another trillion. The flat spots in the chart are the periods when the debt bounced into the debt ceiling. Yeah, those were the days!
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Ed
4 yrs ago
In Lebanon, People Fear Hunger more than Covid
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Even Lower Level Lockdowns Will Be Ruinous for Airlines
Airfares could rise by 50 per cent if social distancing leads to empty middle seats
Travellers should brace for higher air ticket prices if carriers are expected to maintain social distancing measures on flights to reduce chances of Covid-19 infection, with airlines warning that recovery from the pandemic could be severely jeopardised if middle seats are left empty.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said airfares could soar by 54 per cent for travellers in Asia-Pacific, the highest worldwide, as airlines would be operating at nearly 40 per cent lower capacity if the middle seats were eliminated.
“[By] removing the middle seats, [the] cost of providing services is higher, eventually airlines will have to reflect that in fares to have viable operations,” Brian Pearce, IATA’s chief economist said during a teleconference this week.
There has been some push back from within the industry to the “middle seat” proposal. Ryanair, Europe’s biggest budget carrier, has said that it will not resume services if the requirement is imposed.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Lockdowns Threaten to Topple Exxon Mobil an Already Ailing Oil Giant
ExxonMobil, the largest oil company in the U.S. and a direct descendant of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, days are numbered. The once-great profitable oil giant is now borrowing money just to pay dividends.
How long can this charade go on?
Good question. Now, some may believe that ExxonMobil was forced to borrow money to pay dividends due to the collapse in oil prices as a result of the global contagion.
However, the company hasn’t been able to pay shareholder dividends from its cash from operations over the past four quarters, even with much higher oil prices.
The leading culprit as to why ExxonMobil lacks the available cash to pay dividends stems from the lousy economics of its U.S. oil and gas wells, especially the company’s shale oil portfolio.
Ever since ExxonMobil ramped up its domestic shale oil production, that’s when the financial troubles at the company began to intensify.
The best way to compare ExxonMobil’s U.S. Upstream (oil and gas wells) performance, BEFORE and AFTER SHALE, is to go back to 2004. Even though the oil price fell considerably in Q1 2020, it was higher than the oil price in 2004.
For example, ExxonMobil’s U.S. Upstream Sector earned $4.9 billion in 2004 with an average oil price of $41.51 compared to a $704 million loss on a $42.82 oil price:
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Week 7 of the Collapse of the U.S. Labor Market
“Insured unemployment rate” spikes to 15.5%, is already over 20% in some states, 25% in Vermont.
State unemployment offices have processed a gut-wrenching 33.48 million initial claims for unemployment insurance over the seven reporting weeks since mid-March.
In the week ended May 2, state unemployment offices have processed 3.169 million unemployment claims, seasonally adjusted, according to the US Department of Labor this morning.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
We fear hunger, not coronavirus: Lebanon protesters return in rage - video
Lebanon’s coronavirus lockdown has sent an economy already in deep trouble into freefall, and many are struggling to survive. Gino Raidy is an activist who was prominent during the October 2019 anti-government corruption protests. Now, with many fearing hunger and believing there is nothing left to lose, he is helping to keep demonstrators safe as they demand real and lasting change
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Texas back in business? Barely, y'all, as malls, restaurants empty
AUSTIN, Texas (Reuters) - The Domain mall in Austin, Texas, is open for business - unlike most of its 100 upscale shops - as the state entered its first work week of eased pandemic restrictions in the hopes of rekindling the economy.
A dozen or so people were strolling about the sprawling open-air shopping center Monday afternoon, with three seated on the patio of a Tex-Mex restaurant. Only one shopper wore a mask, and the loudest noises were from songbirds perched in the live oak trees along the deserted pedestrian thoroughfares.
“I’ve seen one customer today - they didn’t buy anything,” said Taylor Jund, who was keeping watch over an empty Chaser clothing store. “There’s absolutely no one coming around here.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
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Lockdowns Cost Canada nearly 2 million jobs in April
Canada lost almost two million jobs during the month of April, a record high, as the impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the economy made itself known.
Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey data released Friday brings the total number of jobs lost during the lockdowns to more than three million.
The closure of non-essential services to slow the spread of COVID-19 has devastated the economy and forced businesses to shutter temporarily.
Statistics Canada says the unemployment rate soared to 13 per cent as the full force of the pandemic hit, compared with 7.8 per cent in March.
Economists on average had expected the loss of four million jobs and an unemployment rate of 18 per cent, according to financial markets data firm Refinitiv.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
America's Worst Jobs Report In History: 20.5 Million Jobs Lost
While economic fundamentals ceased to matter about a month ago when the Fed went nuclear and not only injected trillions in the bond and repo market, but also directly backstopped the corporate bond market (with many expecting it will do the same in equities), there is something utterly surreal and terrifying watching stocks surge just as the US reports its worst jobs report in history.
Moments ago when the BLS reported that in April, the US lost a record 20.5 million jobs, (not quite as bad as the 22 million expected but at this level what does it matter) the biggest drop in history, and 10x more than the 2 million jobs lost at the peak of the Great Depression.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Hong Kong Law Firms Dumping Lawyers
The brutal slew of layoffs in the legal industry continued Tuesday, with Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP announcing it would let go 300 associates and staff in the United States, Asia and Europe, and DLA Piper slashing 54 lawyers and support staff in Asia in light of the continuing worldwide economic crisis.
Orrick said the move was necessary due to the world economic crisis “and the impact of that crisis on our clients and the levels of activity in the world market.” It said the layoffs were unrelated to performance and affected attorneys and staff throughout its offices and practices.
Meanwhile, DLA Piper – one of the world's largest law firms with more than 3,700 lawyers, including more than 1,000 partners – said it would be forced to fire 20 lawyers and 34 support staff in Asia, just weeks after two rounds of cuts that eliminated 180 jobs in the United States and 140 in the United Kingdom.
A representative for the firm said most of the reductions would occur in Hong Kong, DLA Piper's largest office, where there is a total staff of over 230.
Weil Gotshal & Manges Unloads Staff
One of the world's most prominent firms with a presence in Hong Kong, said last week it would lay off 60 associate lawyers and 110 support staff.
Hogan Lovells Cuts Jobs in Hong Kong
Hogan Lovells’ Hong Kong office has laid off six of its support staff, in an effort to improve the efficiency of its business operations.
DLA Piper Lays Off Hong Kong Lawyers
DLA Piper, the international legal conglomerate and associated with New Zealand firm DLA Phillips Fox, announced that it is laying off 20 lawyers and 34 staff across its Asian offices in response to "the deteriorating economic climate."
A firm spokesman said the majority of the cuts were in the Hong Kong office -- the firm's largest in the region, with over 100 lawyers -- and were primarily focused on transactional practices.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
German towns BRING BACK lockdown measures after rise in Covid infections within days of lifting them
Local authorities in Germany are bringing back lockdown measures after coronavirus infections spiked just days after Angela Merkel started to ease them.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Collapse of the Labor Market in 5 Charts: Employment Plunged to 1999 Level. Everything’s a Gut-Wrenching Record
Tens of millions of people, many at the lower end of the income scale, lost their jobs. But stocks surge thanks to the Fed’s helicopter money for Wall Street & asset holders.
The total number of employed people collapsed by 22.3 million in April from March, the largest monthly drop in the history of the data series going back to 1948.
left only 133.4 million people still employed, the lowest level since June 1999. This is based on surveys of households by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and includes full-time, part-time, and gig workers:
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Ed
4 yrs ago
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The current hunger crisis in the US, in photos
In the past month, America’s food banks have been completely overwhelmed by demand. In cities like Pittsburgh, San Antonio, and Phoenix, residents have lined up for hours as food banks attempt to address a massive influx of need. Some organizations have been forced to turn people away while others are struggling to maintain the supplies necessary to keep up.
Images of the lines at food pickup points underscore how devastating the economic fallout from the pandemic has been. These photos make visible a long-standing issue: In one of the richest countries on earth, millions still go hungry each day.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
The U.S. Lockddown Crisis is Even Worse than it Appears
Neel Kashkari is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis:
“The official unemployment rate is about 14.7 percent, but if you dig below the numbers, I think it’s really around 22 percent or 23 percent, when you consider the tens of millions who have lost their jobs.
“And by the way, that data is now a couple weeks’ old. It’s probably even higher than that. A couple months ago, I was optimistic, I was hopeful that maybe we’d have a V-shaped recovery, shut things down, clamp down on the virus, and then have a quick recovery…”
Read More
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Covid Stopped the Surging Violent Global Protests
“Street demonstrations were a common sight in 2019, with protest movements rocking governments across Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.
Pro-democracy movements in Moscow and Hong Kong challenged two of the most powerful regimes on the planet.
“Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, and an unprecedented stillness that sees more than half the world’s population living under some form of lockdown.
The once-raucous streets of Paris, Moscow, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Beirut, Baghdad and Santiago fell silent as everyone – governments and their critics alike – focused on trying to stop the deadly spread of the novel coronavirus.
“But even as economies came to near-complete stops, politics carried on. Authoritarian governments have used the threat of COVID-19 to curb freedoms and accumulate new powers. And now – with anger swelling over the economic pain inflicted by the lockdowns – activists around the world are fumbling for safety-conscious ways to push back.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
China faces looming crisis as pandemic sends unemployment soaring
Years of social progress in China are at risk of being undone as the country grapples with the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, a black swan event that has lashed the world’s second biggest economy and driven unemployment to historic highs.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
US Commercial Real Estate Prices Plunged in April, Mall Prices Collapsed
Tenants’ collapsing one after the other without replacement has a pernicious impact on property prices.
Before the coronavirus, some segments of commercial real estate (CRE) were red hot, others were hanging in there or declining, and one sector, malls, has been in deep trouble since 2016, with prices plunging.
Then came the lockdowns. Property prices in every CRE segment fell in April, even those that were red hot. And prices of mall properties got crushed.
The overall Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) by Green Street Advisors had peaked in the period of November 2019 through January 2020. In February and March, it ticked down. In April it plunged 9.4% from March, the second largest percent-drop in the data going back to the 1990s.
The largest drop was 10.9% in October 2008, following the Lehman bankruptcy. Since the peak in January, the index has dropped 10.7% and is back where it had first been in May 2015:
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Stage Stores files for bankruptcy, to wind down if no buyer
Stage Stores Inc., the owner of rural department and discount stores including Goody’s, Peebles and Gordmans, filed for bankruptcy protection, adding to the toll of traditional retailers felled by too much debt and the economic shocks of the coronavirus.
The retailer will simultaneously seek buyers for parts or all of its business while it also begins to wind down operations, Stage Stores said in a statement late Sunday.
It will start reopening stores that have been closed by the pandemic, with about 557 outlets scheduled to open May 15 to conduct liquidation sales.
As of 2019, Stage Stores was running more than 700 department stores in 42 states under banners that also included Bealls and Palais Royal, according to regulatory filings.
Most of the department stores are in small towns and rural communities, while the off-price stores such as Gordmans are predominantly located in mid-sized, non-rural Midwest markets.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
'It’s just not worth opening': restaurants in Australia can trade again, but will they?
As lockdown restrictions ease in parts of Australia, high-profile restaurateurs and chefs suggest it is not viable to reopen their businesses
“To turn a decent profit, high-end Sydney restaurant Nomad needs an average of 1,500 covers per week, or a full 180-seat restaurant across two sittings from Wednesday to Saturday. When the pandemic hit, executive chef Jacqui Challinor made the difficult decision to put the business into hibernation.
““All of our staffing models, our wage costs, food costs … depend upon us turning over a certain amount of money a week, which isn’t going to happen with the restrictions that they’re proposing,” says Challinor.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Half of France’s private sector workers now unemployed
"Today in France there are 10.2 million employees whose salaries are being paid by the state," Labour Minister Muriel Penicaud told BFM television.
Around 820,000 employers, or more than six in ten, have applied for a social security programme that grants 84 percent of net pay for workers temporarily laid off because of a drop in business, a number that is increasing "day after day,"" she said.
"It's a considerable number, we've never done anything like it in our country," she said.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Airbnb Gets Disrupted. Hosts, “Super-Hosts” Try to Survive. Apartments in Prime Locations Suddenly Flood Rental Market
Big driver behind soaring rents — the “Airbnb effect” that removed countless properties from global cities’ long-term rental markets — reverses.
With many of the world’s most popular tourist destinations locked down, and many flights canceled, making international tourism all but impossible, the world’s biggest disruptor of global tourism, Airbnb, faces a starkly different market reality.
As of mid-April, new bookings on the company’s portal had plunged 85% year over year while cancellation rates were around 90%,
according to AirDNA, an online rental analytics firm.
Airbnb
has warned that its 2020 revenue could come in 50% lower than its 2019 total. This is a company that wasn’t even able to turn a profit when the Good Times were raging.
To try to keep investors on board, management has unleashed a brutal restructuring of the group’s global operations. Last week, it laid off 1,900 workers, around 25% of its global workforce. The San Francisco-based company also
rescinded a contract it has with a call center in Barcelona, resulting in the immediate loss of a further 1,000 subcontracted jobs.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Los Angeles Stay-At-Home Orders Will ‘With All Certainty’ Extend Into July
The stay-at-home orders, initially issued in March and still in place in Los Angeles, are fully expected to be extended for the next three months, according to the county’s public health director, Barbara Ferrer.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
California Cancels First Semester of University Classes (September to December)
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California’s state university system, the largest in the United States, canceled classes on Tuesday for the fall semester because of the coronavirus, while Los Angeles County said its stay-at-home order was likely to be extended by three months.
In one of the first indications the pandemic will continue to have a significant impact into autumn, the chancellor of California State University said classes at its 23 campuses would be canceled for the semester that begins in September.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Unemployment in Hawaii tops 37% as coronavirus shutdown continues
HONOLULU, Hawaii (HawaiiNewsNow) - More than 1 in 3 workers in Hawaii has lost a job as a result of the COVID-19 shutdown, new figures from the state Labor Department show.
And a new state-by-state analysis shows Hawaii is among the state’s hardest hit by shutdown orders.
That’s because many of those laid off are connected to the tourism industry, which has been at a standstill since stay-at-home orders went into effect followed by travel-related quarantines.
In February, Hawaii’s workforce was about 651,000 strong, and unemployment was just 2.7% ― far below the national average.
From March 1 to Thursday, the number of unemployment claims filed in the islands stands at a staggering 244,330. That puts the state at more than 37% unemployment.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Global trade set to slump 27% in Q2, report warns
Global trade is projected to record a quarter-on-quarter slump of 27% in the second quarter of 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 Lockdowns, after falling by 3% in the first quarter, a new report by the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (CCSA) warns.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Plane graveyard: Hundreds of jets are parked in the Arizona desert as coronavirus kills air travel - with many unlikely to ever take to the skies again
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Ed
4 yrs ago
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Reopening reality check: Georgia's jobs aren’t flooding back
A month after easing lockdown restrictions, the state is still seeing a steady stream of unemployment claims, economic data shows.
Georgia’s early move to start easing stay-at-home restrictions nearly a month ago has done little to stem the state’s flood of unemployment claims — illustrating how hard it is to bring jobs back while consumers are still afraid to go outside.
Weekly applications for jobless benefits have remained so elevated that Georgia now leads the country in terms of the proportion of its workforce applying for unemployment assistance.
A staggering 40.3 percent of the state's workers — two out of every five — has filed for unemployment insurance payments since the coronavirus pandemic led to widespread shutdowns in mid-March, a POLITICO review of Labor Department data shows.
Georgia's new jobless claims have been going up and down since the state reopened, rising to 243,000 two weeks ago before dipping to 177,000 last week.
The state cited new layoffs in the retail, social assistance and health care industries for the continued high rate of jobless claims that have put it ahead of other states in the proportion of its workforce that has been sidelined.
Of course another reason why people are not returning to restaurants and bars is that they are flat broke. Tens of millions have been added to the unemployment rolls - and those who still have jobs are saving for the stormy days ahead.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Lockdowns and Flight Bans Smash the HK Hotel Industry
The situation is “worse than the Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak in 2003,” said Michael Li Hon-shing, executive director of The Federation of Hong Kong Hotel Owners, with 86 members running about 200 hotels and employing some 80,000 workers.
“With no tourist arrivals, hotel operators had to undertake a price war to fight for guests, but a lot of rooms are still sitting empty.”
As few as 4,100 visitors arrived in Hong Kong in April, compared with 5.57 million in the same month a year earlier, according to data by the city’s Tourism Board.
That pushed the average daily income that an available hotel room can contribute in Hong Kong to a 17-year low of HK$290 at the end of April, a 78 percent plunge from a year earlier.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
India Lockdown Update
Video of starving man eating ‘dog’ carcass in Rajasthan causes outrage
“India’s Covid-19 lockdown has turned into one of the biggest humanitarian crisis of our times, with millions of migrant workers stranded in cities across India battling hunger…
https://youtu.be/Vg9Ky_aAmYk
There is No Recovery
“The PMI data doesn’t lie, and it’s telling you in no unequivocal terms we are still solidly on the downward slope towards the abyss.
“Global growth hasn’t bottomed, there is no recovery in play, and you can darn well expect more downside from here.”
As The Global Economy Weighs Fears Of A Recession, Travel Is Already In A Depression
“Unemployed rates are now twice what they were in 1933 at the depths of the Great Depression. This trend is even more pronounced in the travel and hospitality segments of the economy.
“At least eight million of the 15.8 million travel-related workforce that existed in the US just three months ago have evaporated into thin air. ”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Worst week ever for UK economy
Record borrowing and an unprecedented collapse in retail sales have laid bare the devastating impact of the lockdown after Britain reported its worst ever week of economic data.
The Treasury borrowed £62.1bn in April, the biggest single monthly figure in history, as tax revenues crashed and spending surged.
In just one month the Government borrowed almost exactly the same as during the entire last financial year as part of massive efforts to fight the crisis and prevent even worse economic damage.
Borrowing in April was far more than planned for the whole of 2020-21.
Taxpayers are footing the bill for an unprecedented support package including a furlough scheme supporting the salaries of eight million UK workers until October.
The dire public finance data were accompanied by more evidence of the impact of the UK’s economic deep freeze on shops as retail and fuel sales volumes plunged by 22.6pc over the same month a year earlier, and 18.1 pc in April alone.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
The Cost of the Covid Lockdowns - USD9 trillion (and counting)
“Global fiscal support is now around $9 trillion, say the IMF. This figure is up $1 trillion form earlier estimates. Direct budget support is currently estimated at $4.4 trillion globally.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
500 Doctors Write To Trump Warning Lockdown Will Cause More Deaths
“The millions of casualties of a continued shutdown will be hiding in plain sight.”
In the letter, sent last week, doctors described the lockdown as a “mass casualty incident”.
“We are alarmed at what appears to be the lack of consideration for the future health of our patients. The downstream health effects of deteriorating a level are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error,” it states.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
In Philippine slums, heat, hunger take a toll under lockdown
This is what a meal can look like in the slums around the Philippine capital Manila. Under lockdown since March 16, many families have lost regular incomes and forced to survive on government aid that can be sporadic and often not enough.
“Every day we just wait for our ration but it only comes once or twice a week,” said Asinto, 42, whose plywood and tin house sits precariously on top of another, reachable only by ladder.
“One by one, Michelle Asinto’s six children take the plate of rice doused in soy sauce and eat their share before passing it on. This is what a meal can look like in the slums around the Philippine capital Manila.
“Under lockdown since March 16, many families have lost regular incomes and forced to survive on government aid that can be sporadic and often not enough.”
“I actually think I’ll get sick inside this house because of the intense heat,” said Robeno, 29.
“We may be saved from the virus but it doesn’t matter if we’re going to die of hunger anyway.”
Read More
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Largest Airline in South America - Bankrupt
“Latin America’s largest airline LATAM has today filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US. The company, along with its affiliates in Chile, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and the US, have applied for the voluntary protection.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
US Air Passenger Traffic over Memorial Day Weekend Down 87%, Amid Signs of Slow Recovery
Airlines don’t expect a quick recovery back to “normal” either. Based on their decisions about aircraft in their fleets, they expect this to drag out for years.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
41% of the New Zealand is on a Wage Subsidy due to Lockdowns
The million-worker milestone was reached following $1.25 billion of payments on 6 April, taking the total paid out to $6.6 billion. This is supporting the wages of 1,073,129 workers, comprised of 914,931 employees and 158,198 sole traders.
This represents 41% of the New Zealand workforce.
Apparently money for nothing is very popular with the masses.
Read More
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Half Of Americans Received Stimulus Checks As Unemployment Hits Record Highs
The IRS has sent out stimulus checks to more than 159 million Americans over the past two months worth a total of $267 billion, according to new data released Wednesday.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
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The Illusion of a Rapid US Recovery
Faced with radical uncertainty, US consumers will save more and spend less. Even if the government replaces their lost incomes for a time, people know that stimulus is short term.
What they do not know is when the next job offer – or layoff – will come along.
Moreover, people do distinguish between needs and wants. Americans need to eat, but they mostly don’t need to eat out. They don’t need to travel. Restaurant owners and airlines therefore have two problems: they can’t cover costs while their capacity is limited for public-health reasons, and demand would be down even if the coronavirus disappeared.
This explains why many businesses are not reopening even though they legally can. Others are reopening, but fear they cannot hold out for long. And the many millions of workers in America’s vast services sector are realizing that their jobs are simply not essential.
Meanwhile, US household debts – rent, mortgage, and utility arrears, as well as interest on education and car loans – have continued to mount. True, stimulus checks have helped: defaults have so far been modest, and many landlords have been accommodating.
But as people face long periods with lower incomes, they will continue to hoard funds to ensure that they can repay their fixed debts. As if all this were not enough, falling sales- and income-tax revenues are prompting US state and local governments to cut spending, compounding the loss of jobs and incomes.
America’s economic plight is structural. It is not simply the consequence of Trump’s incompetence or House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s poor political strategy.
It reflects systemic changes over 50 years that have created an economy based on global demand for advanced goods, consumer demand for frills, and ever-growing household and business debts. This economy was in many ways prosperous, and it provided jobs and incomes to many millions. Yet it was a house of cards, and COVID-19 has blown it down.
“Reopen America” is therefore an economic and political fantasy. Incumbent politicians crave a cheery growth rebound, and the depth of the collapse makes possible some attractive short-term numbers. But taking them seriously will merely set the stage for a new round of disillusion.
As nationwide protests against systemic racism and police brutality show, disillusion is America’s one big growth sector right now.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
The Chilling Things Delta Said about the Airline Business, the 90% Collapse in Q2 Revenues, and Why Some Demand Destruction May Be “Permanent”
Delta Airlines came out with the mother of all revenue-warnings when it said in an SEC filing this morning that its revenues in the second quarter, ending June 30, would collapse by 90% compared to the second quarter last year.
In addition to the collapse of demand, it has “experienced significant ticket cancellations” (refunds are counted as negative revenues), and it has waved change fees, which used to be a big profit center, and it is giving out “other refunds,” and they all “have negatively affected our revenues and liquidity, and we expect such negative effects to continue.”
And it cannot predict the effects of this unpredictable future, not even the near-term effects. “The longer the pandemic persists, the more material the ultimate effects are likely to be,” Delta said. “It is likely that there will be future negative effects that we cannot presently predict, including near term effects.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
The Real Economic Catastrophe Hasn’t Hit Yet. Just Wait For August
More than 40 million people lost their jobs in the last few months, in the fastest and deepest economic slowdown ever recorded. More than half of all households with low incomes in the United States have experienced a loss of earnings, as have a quarter of all adults. The numbers are grim — but as bad as things look today, they’re on track to get much, much worse.
The US economy right now is like a jumbo jet that’s in a steady glide after both its engines flamed out. In about six weeks, it will likely crash into the side of a mountain.
What’s kept us in the air so far is an extraordinary government relief effort. In most states, evictions have been temporarily banned, preventing a mass homelessness crisis.
Most federal student loan payments have been put on hold, removing one of the largest recurring monthly expenses that millions of people face. Banks were ordered to give their customers a six-month break on mortgage payments if requested.
Most importantly, and counterintuitively, household income sharply increased in April as hundreds of billions of dollars in lost wages were replaced by trillions in government spending.
The government sent out more than 159 million stimulus payments of up to $1,200 per adult (more if you have kids), and more than 20 million unemployed people became eligible for an extra $600 a week in federal unemployment benefits.
The result, according to Bloomberg, was the largest monthly increase in household income ever recorded.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Cargo ship calls at Singapore hub plummet to 27-year low, marine fuel sales fall
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Cargo ship arrivals in Singapore, the world’s top transhipment and bunkering hub, plummeted to their lowest in nearly three decades in May, while dragging sales of marine fuels to a three-month low, official data showed.
As the coronavirus pandemic hit global trade, the number of cargo ships calling at the world’s top transhipment port fell in May to 3,059, the lowest since at least January 1993, the oldest available figure, data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) showed.
Shipping activity may stay sluggish as container ship activity and bunkering demand remain weak in June, analysts and traders said.
Blank sailings, when a vessel skips a port on its route or the entire journey is cancelled, have surged in the first week of June, with the total pandemic-induced blanked capacity nearing 4 million twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU), shipping analysis firm Sea-Intelligence said last week.
World's Largest Shipper Warns Of Collapsing Volumes, Dashes Hope For V-Shaped Recovery
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world's largest container line, warned Wednesday that global trade will continue to falter with volumes declining by at least a quarter in 2Q20. Maersk dashed all hope that a V-shaped recovery will be seen in the back half of the year, rather suggesting a U-shaped recovery is more plausible.
"Looking into Q2 2020, visibility remains low as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. We continue to support our customers in keeping their supply chains running, however as global demand continues to be significantly affected, we expect volumes in Q2 to decrease across all businesses, possibly by as much as 20-25%," Soren Skou, Maersk's CEO, was quoted in a company press release.
As for an actual shipper, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world's largest container line, warned last month that world trade would continue to falter with volumes declining by at least a quarter in 2Q20.
Maersk dashed all hope that a V-shaped recovery will be seen in the back half of the year, instead suggesting a U-shaped recovery is more plausible.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) published its Goods Trade Barometer in late May, which suggested a sharp contraction in world trade will extend through 2Q.
BofA's latest Fund Manager Survey, which polled 223 participants with $651 billion in AUM, showed the vast majority of financial professionals remain incredibly bearish on the global economy. Respondents do not expect global manufacturing PMI to rise back above 50 until 4Q20.
It could take several years or more for global GDP to recover back to 2019 levels.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
In the boom years before the pandemic, the Fed encouraged S&P 500 titans to binge on trillions in debt, now the central bank is propping them up to avoid an economic catastrophe.
When chief executive Doug Parker took the pilot’s seat at American Airlines in December 2013, it seemed as though clear skies were ahead. His U.S. Airways had finally bagged a major partner by agreeing to combine with bankrupt American.
The new company would emerge with modest debt as the nation’s largest airline, with only three domestic carriers left among its global competitors.
The financial crisis was well in the past, the economy was humming and travel seemed to be entering a new golden age. Carriers like American had mastered the science of dynamic fare pricing, and now nearly every seat on every flight was full, maximizing revenue and efficiency.
Hailing the arrival of a “new American” by early 2014, Parker was eager to please Wall Street. “I assure you that everything we’re doing is focused on maximizing value for our shareholders,” he said on a call with investors.
Over the next six years, Parker borrowed heavily, tapping capital markets no fewer than 18 times to raise $25 billion in debt. He used the money to buy new planes and shore up American’s pension obligations, among other things.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Labor Market Collapse: Week 3 of Recovery at Snail’s Pace Amid Data Chaos
The unemployment crisis – by far the worst since this type of data has been tracked – stopped getting worse in May and has lessened for the third week in a row, but lessened at snail’s pace, and it’s still so enormous that the improvements are relatively tiny.
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4 yrs ago
Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific ready to pull plug on ‘many’ passenger flights now being used exclusively for cargo as air freight market weakens
Cathay Pacific, the world’s fifth-largest air cargo carrier, is preparing to cancel “many” of the passenger flights it has repurposed to carry only freight, the strongest signal yet that the short-term boom in the air cargo market is weakening.
Air freight rates have fallen by half from their peak last month, according to TAC Index, the industry’s price-guide bible, as demand for personal protective equipment has eased, alternative transportation methods have been employed and global economies continue to slow.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Victoria’s Secret closes Causeway Bay flagship store, becoming latest virus victim
The retailer on Thursday posted a simple paper notice on its door that read, ‘We regret to inform you that we have closed the Victoria’s Secret Flagship Store.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
“V-Shaped” Recovery Not Now: It Gets Worse, 30.55 Million on Unemployment. Week 14 of U.S. Labor Market Collapse
Had a setback. Over 11 million gig workers on unemployment insurance. But four states, including Florida, still can’t process federal PUA claims.
This unemployment crisis is shape-shifting, and some states are still trying to catch up with the torrent of unemployment claims, and some states still haven’t figured out how to process unemployment claims under federal programs, including Florida. And so, after three weeks of improving, the data tracking the unemployment crisis got worse.
The total number of people who continued to receive unemployment compensation in the week ended June 20 under all state and federal unemployment insurance programs combined, including gig workers, rose to 30.55 million people (not seasonally adjusted), according to Labor Department data this morning.
This is up by 1.3 million people from the prior week (29.26 million), and the second-highest ever, just below the record during the week ended May 23. V-shaped recovery not now:
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Ed
4 yrs ago
2.2 Million Restaurants Worldwide Teeter on Brink of Collapse
With demand plunging and costs piling up, these business owners talk about how they’re fighting to stay afloat.
When Chicago restaurant owner Manish Mallick does the math, the outlook isn’t pretty: Sales are 10% of what they were, while costs continue to pile up, from credit card fees and city permits to masks and thermometers.
The owner of ROOH Chicago, an Indian restaurant nominated for the city’s 2019 restaurant of the year by foodie publication Eater, gives himself a couple months at most.
“It’s going to be tough to survive,” Mallick said. “Ultimately I need people to come and start dining in. And the more time it takes, the worse it gets for us.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
41% Of Businesses On Yelp Have Permanently Closed As V-Shaped Recovery Implodes
A new report via Yelp, tilted "Local Economic Impact Report," debunks the V-shaped narrative and tells a much different story of slow reopenings and widespread permanent closures, all suggesting the economic devastation continues to crush the economy with no recovery in sight.
Yelp data shows large swathes of Americans remain in deep recession through mid-June. Since April 19, only 20% of the 175,000 Yelp-registered stores that were closed during lockdowns have reopened.
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Cirque du Soleil files for bankruptcy protection, terminates 3,500
In a move that would have been unheard of even a year ago, Cirque du Soleil, the Las Vegas Strip’s preeminent production company for more than two decades, has filed for bankruptcy protection.
The company, which has six productions on the Strip, announced Monday morning from its headquarters in Montreal it was seeking a debt restructuring protection under its home country’s Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA).
As expected, the company said in its filing announcement the refinancing move was “in response to immense disruption and forced show closures as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
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Ed
4 yrs ago
Covid 19 coronavirus: Airbus slashes 15,000 jobs as sector reels from collapse in travel
TOULOUSE/PARIS - Airbus on Tuesday unveiled plans to shed around 15,000 jobs including 900 already earmarked in Germany, saying its future was at stake after the coronavirus pandemic rocked the air travel industry.
Europe’s biggest aerospace group said it would cut some 5,000 posts in France, 5,100 in Germany, 900 in Spain, 1,700 in the UK and 1,300 elsewhere for a core total of 14,000.
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