Hindenburg's Omen is Here

The Hindenburg Omen is Here


The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration."


Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be met for a Hindenburg trigger typically need to reoccur within 36 days for reconfirmation.


Yet the statistics are startling:

"Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days." The last Hindenburg Omen occurred during the lows of 2009. Today, we just had another (unconfirmed) Hindenburg Omen.


; ; ;

The Five Conditions:


That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.


That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum.

This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.


That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.


That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.


That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.


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/source: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hindenburg-omen-here

Dr Jim Willie thinks problems with Deutschbank could be a Trigger

"Bernanke did a stress test in May, to see what would drop when rates go up, the answer was: EVERYTHING

JITTERS as Guru goes Bearish - says Cash Call column in the HK Standard


. .


George Soros' portfolio was released last week:


+ He bought 1.2 million shares of Apple


+ Sold almost all his Gold holdings*


+ Has a large holding of SPX put options (up from 4.79% to 13.54% of his portfolio)


+ The put holding is now double what it was in 2011


Mark Hulbert, that through all the years since 1871, the PE ratio during times of rising rates


has averaged 12.8X earnings. That could suggest more tahn 20% downside risk


(or even more, if you consider that a rise in rates may drop earnings too.)


Average earnings of S+P500 stocks gained only 4.5 % in Q2

Money Flowing OUT - of the stock market


August ETF outflows largest in U.S. history

Reuters | 13/09/05


Investors pulled more than $17 billion from U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds in August, the largest monthly outflow in the 20-year history of the ETF industry, data firm IndexUniverse said on Wednesday.

The asset management arm at Boston-based State Street Corp experienced the heaviest redemptions among ETF sponsors with $19.5 billion in outflows during August, IndexUniverse said. Most of that amount, $14 billion, was pulled from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, as jittery investors worried about the stock market.


BlackRock Inc., the No. 1 U.S. ETF company, experienced net outflows of $4.3 billion, IndexUniverse said. BlackRock oversees about $588 billion in ETF assets. State Street Global Advisors, the State Street unit, is No. 2 with about $338 billion in ETF assets under management.

In contrast, Vanguard Group, the No. 1 U.S. mutual fund company and No. 3 ETF provider, experienced ETF net deposits of nearly $3.8 billion, giving the company about $290 billion in ETF assets under management, IndexUniverse said.