“I think we’re going to be worse than the Street”. It won't have been an easy thing for a nameless “senior Goldman banker” to say. For Goldman Sachs to have a bonus pool that’s below the industry average is a rare occurrence. For it to do so in a year in which its market share has actually been pretty healthy (both in M&A revenues and overall investment banking) and where there have been no particularly noteworthy write-offs or regulatory fines is even more so.
Goldmanites looking for culprits might want to alight on the 84% year-on-year drop in equity capital markets revenues or the $1.2bn losses from the
consumer business. Nonetheless, the worst predictions might not happen – some senior bankers are very dramatic, and the rest of the Street might feel that if Goldman Sachs isn’t paying up this year, they don’t have to either. But if the claims are correct that GS really is moving in the direction of a 40% decline in the bonus pool compared to last year, then bonuses may well be worse than rivals and there’s going to be a lot of disappointment to be divided up.