The Olympic Station / TKT thread




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ORIGINAL POST

Posted by OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
Tai Kok Tsui / Olympic Station
===================

MAP: http://johomaps.com/as/hongkong/metroatlas/olympic.html#top

I have changed the name of the thread, and the focus.

Many people live happily in Sai Yun Pun, and I have nothing against it. Prices have risen fast, and there's no reason for me to think that will not continue.

So I will instead focus here on the positive merits of TKT, and leave SYP discussions to those who know that area better than I do.

I plan to talk about both renting and buying. As well as about Newer and Older properties.
============

Original Comment:

Tai Kok Tsui versus Sai Yun Pun /
TKT vs SYP vs Wanchai QRE
===

Why not buy somewhere that ALREADY has an MTR station, and is only 7 minutes (two stations) away from Hong Kong station?

That's Tai Kok Tsui, and it is gentrifying, as older buildings get pulled down, and new highrises go up. Best of all, you can WALK to the express train to China when it is completed in 2015 / the XRL will be maybe 15 to 20 mins away, by foot. I think one could argue that the Express Train will have a greater positive impact on TKT than the MTR stations will on SYP - since the MTR is arguably "already priced in" to SYP prices.

XRL / Express Train Terminus
Maps and Photos: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-XRL

XRL Station Plan:
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/alexlvn/27466529/4597/4597_original.jpg

You can still buy a 2BR flat in an older building (more than 35 years old), for under $3 Million. And maybe benefit someday from an buyout for a new building. In addition, there are nice modern buildings in the area are under $12,000 psf, Gross - far less than similar aged properties in Mid-Levels.

Pictoid's post from the Main thread:

== QUOTE ===

SYP vs Wanchai QRE

HI, I am debating the merits of buying an investment property (budget about 4M) on des veoux rd west (around centre street) versus queens road east, (near hopewell centre). Sai Ying Pun is obviously considerably cheaper psf because the area is not as nice, so can get a larger unit. Queens road east on the other hand is getting even more hip and there are loads of new offfices coming up (eg PP3) so presumably demand for acco in the area should rise.

The question is - will the new MTR result in a faster rate of appreciation for SYP over the next 3-5 years, or is QRE is the better choice since it is now a very cool and convenient place to live in, and not every area with a new MTR can aspire to become such a hub/desirable area. Many thanks for your views in advance!
== UNQUOTE ===

TKT: MAPS, Photos, prices: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17734
XRL News : http://www.expressraillink.hk/en/home/
Image/ XRL-to-TKT : http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/9535/xrltotkt.jpg
WK Terminus : http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr09-10/english/panels/tp/tp_rdp/papers/tp_rdp1022cb1-389-1-e.pdf

COMMENTS

Ed 6 yrs ago
Interesting... any idea of price psf?

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
PRICES : Per SF

Bellwether Modern Property: Central Park / Park Avenue

Chart= : http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/6506/pacpkw.png

Update : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=003000

Older Property
====
In TKT, we bought an older property at a Net price which was just under HKD 8,300 per sf, and under $6,500 psf, Gross.

This place is just off Ivy Street and an easy 5 minutes walk from the Olympic MTR station, and much of the walk is under a covered walkway.

Pictoid 6 yrs ago
In SYP, there are still properties available in older buildings for that price psf(gross) and am looking at such options. And that is what I am considering in comparison to QRE,where the prices psf are around 11 for similar buildings. interestingly, the rental yield in QRE tends to be higher.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
$8,300 Net in SYP?

I am surprised to learn they are that cheap.

Are they Walk-up Buildings?
Can you give one or two examples.

I should point out that the property I mentioned is on the top floor, is bright, and has access to the roof. All of those were important considerations for us, as was the layout.

But, hey, if you have discovered equally good bargains in SYP, I am all ears

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
What will drive TKT is:

+ Ongoing gentrification and new buildings
+ More Grade-A offices, bringing new jobs
+ The spending power of the new residents, which improves retail and infrastructure
+ Some excitement (just as there has been in SYP) as the Express Train station gets closer to completion

I took a walk around the area yesterday, and we were struck by how the area is beginning to "come together" with the area in front of Park Avenue/ Central Park being the "central chamber" of a huge outdoor corridor with the greenery of Cherry Park adding to the positive feeling there.

In future, people will walk through that corridor, under the highway into the heart of TKT. Park Summit could have been a great development (it looks good from the outside), but the rooms within the flats are too small.
================

This was in response to:

=== QUOTE ===
HK's future may be its link with china, but that link is with business ties, (a rail link is just one of business links). HK central is the major Central business district. Also, TKT may be undervalued (I don't know), but not all anomolies get corrected in the markets. And this the question as regards SYP vs QRE. With the impetus of the new MTR stations, will SYP see faster rates of appreciation ? or is QRE that is now on track for several years of demand due to the momentum of gentrification and new office buildings as well. Any thoughts as regards comparing these two areas ?
=== UNQUOTE ===

Pictoid 6 yrs ago
hi, the price in my post above is gross. Wish I were a better bargain hunter :-)

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
Okay.
That makes sense.

I do think that TKT is still significantly cheaper than SYP.
Personally, I think the discount may disappear within 5 years or so, to a time after the Express Train to China is operating.

The real "center" of the HK SAR may be shifting away from Central and off HK Island.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
Very interesting article in today's SCMP, pg.A3

"Wan Chai at centre of rail expansion" : They mean Tamar

(This might also be called: "How to turn Midlevels into a future backwater" - a long term development which I have long been predicting. haha / just kidding.)

Plan:
Change the train lines:
"Trains might no longer run the length of Island Line"

The main change I can see is:
CONNECTING the Tung Chung line directly to the Island line, so people can wanting to travel to Wanchai and beyond can avoid that long walk between HK Station and Central.

Option 1: TC Line goes to Tamar interchange, and there connects to the TKO line

Option 2: TC line connects at Tamar to the line running all the way to Chai Wan

TUNG CHUNG LINE extension, the options:
http://img1.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/17336/17336041c226a64e12d8e657309c075c2be6b4c5.jpg

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
North Island Line (NIL)

6.3 The NIL "Swap” scheme links the Tung Chung Line (TCL) via the Central and
Wanchai reclamation areas through to the eastern section of the Island Line (ISL)
at Fortress. The Tseung Kwan O Line (TKOL) is then extended from North Point to
connect into the ISL at Tin Hau and run through to the western terminus at Sheung
Wan. It has a high priority for implementation as it relieves the ISL and TWL and
promotes the use of the TCL, WR and TKOL. It is common to all railway network
expansion options and its implementation needs to be co-ordinated with
reclamation and infrastructure development along the north foreshore of Hong
Kong Island.
====
/source: http://www.hyd.gov.hk/eng/public/publications/srds_es/doc/RDS2_E.pdf

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 6 yrs ago
OTP, Not another anti-Mid-levels rant. You haven't been able to contain yourself since you moved to West Kowloon. Can't see how the NIL would affect Mid-levels. The 4 nearest stations are Central, Hong Kong Station, Sai Ying Pun and Admiralty. Not many people in Mid-levels will be desperate to to travel to Heng Fa Chuen and will be annoyed about changing at North Point. Also, you always forget the schools factor - which is extremely important. I live in Fortress Hill which, I think, would benefit from the "swap" as opposed to the 'interchange" - as it would be quicker to get to Central. However, I suspect the interchange option will go ahead as many people east of North Point are pro-CY.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
(Duplicated from the other thread, for the record here):

Thanks, Lloyd.

I knew that would draw you out - just a little innocent Friday sport for me.

But, seriously, this new connection through Tamar, the Convention Hall and Causeway Bay will make those living along the Tung Chung line feel more connected with HK Island. There are some who do not like that long walk from HK Station to Central, and now they will be able to avoid it for many of their journeys.

This new line will also connect the Eastern part of HK Island better to the (coming) Express train to China and to the airport.

And I do genuinely see this as evidence that the "heart of the HKSAR" is now moving towards Kowloon, and very possibly to TKT. Admit it.
=====

It amazes me that some "historians" still living on HK Island still call Kowloon "the dark side" when there are so many important developments coming here (XRL, WK Cultural district etc) which are threatening to put HK Island "in the shade."

How look before I will be winding up Lloyd by calling HK Island "the new dark side"? Or even "The Backside" (haha - reflecting its backwards looking status.) ?

... But not just yet.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
Some OTP "Truth-telling" for the historical record here:

"How about One West Kowloon? I think prices are still high. That area is getting quite expensive (2nd hand units) and for OWK, 8k per gross sqf should be about right."

Yeah, CK cut prices by 7-16%. But it is still not really cheap.

The place is next to "The Four Little Dragons", and should be called:

"The Fifth Dragon", or "One (Mile from) West Kowloon" - as some of my friends in Olympic station call it. To really be in West Kowloon, I reckon you need to be within walking distance of one of the two ends of the Express Rail Station. One is in Kowloon station, the other in TKT.

Cheung Sha Wan just doesn't cut it. Sorry, CK. And a misleading name is not going to change that.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
In Q1, some of the best gains in HK Property were in the Tai Kok Tsui area.

Compare:
======
Centaline Leading : + 6.6%
Island Harborview : + 9.5%
Central Pk/PkAve. : +11.5%
Robinson Place---- : + 7.9%
Dynasty / Clovelly : + 1.8%
======

/see: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/135960/whats-wrong-with-the-mid-levels?/

Could that be because people are beginning to price in the improved transport links (XRL and the Tung Chung Line extension?)

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
TKT Thread / Tai Kok Tsui

I have changed the name of the thread, and the focus.
Many people live happily in Sai Yun Pun, and I have nothing against it. Prices have risen fast, and there's no reason for me to think that will not continue.

So I will instead focus here on the positive merits of TKT, and leave SYP discussions to those who know that area better.
================

I will be visiting TKT later today, and may collect some comments from agents.

One with an office on Ivy Street told me yesterday that she is beginning to see more Expats inquiring about the 2BR flats at Cosmopolitan Estates. Previously, it was almost only local HK Chinese who wanted to live there.

Apparently, they are finding the $16,000 and higher rents at Island Harborview and $15K for studios at Park Summit are be too much for their budgets. Modernised 2BR flats at Cosmo can be had for about $10,000 per month, and less than that for unmodernised flats.

*Cosmo Estates : Buildings ar 38-39 years old, and were renovated about 2-3 years ago, with new elevators added in most buildings.

(note: views under 700 when this was posted)

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
(As I put into my response that I sent in a recent email):

" Never been to TKT before... "
" What is the traveling time from the TKT flat to Central say the Landmark "

About 30-35 minutes, as follows:
+ 8-10 minutes Walk to get to the MTR, and onto the platform
+ 8 minutes Train Ride from Olympic to Central
+ 8-10 minutes Walk from Central MTR to Landmark
===

30 minutes or less, if you catch the train immediately.
Add 5 minutes for late train, or other delays

If you are going to IFC, it is even more convenient.

Coming transport network changes
The extension of the Tung Chung Line from Central to Tamar, HKCEC, and Causeway Bay. And the opening of the XRL to China, will make TKT the new heart of the HK SAR in my opinion. TKT is less crowded and with less dangerous street traffic than: Wanchai, Mong Kok, etc. And it is less Shopping Mall-dominated than Kowloon Central. The WK Cultural Center will also help soldify the shift towards Kowloon, away from HK Island.

What TKT really needs is gentrification (since it was once thought of as a "slum" by some of the residents here, a HK friend told me recently.) But that gentrification process is now happening very fast - Faster perhaps than we saw in Wanchai over the last 20-30 years.

But, hey, I know there are different opinions than mine. I cannot guarantee that my vision for TKT will play out as I have suggested. Why not have a look around, and form your own opinion.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
ROOFTOPS cleaned up now? I do think so...

You can go to the top of the TKT Rosedale Hotel, have a drink there, and check this out

Many changes have happened here.

The Roofs of Tai Kok Tsui (TKT) ...
http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4149/5096116995_60079ebb9c_z.jpg

This roof is very near to where I live, and I can see it easily from my flat. In fact, I had dinner a few days ago at a new restaurant in the building next door to this one. I can tell you: It has all been cleared now, and some of the old buildings are coming down, to be replaced by new skyscrapers. TKT is changing very fast, almost in front of my eyes.
== ==

The HK Govt must be well aware of how this "housing" gives it a bad image, so it is busy now sorting that out.

The URA (Urban Redevelopment Authority) is on the case. The rooftop dwellings in TKT were removed some time ago, and they are now doing the same in other areas, like nearby Sham Shui Po.

Today's SCMP has a story: "Rooftop residents get a special URA cash offer."

+ People who paid maybe HK$15,000 "a few years ago" for their dwellings, and being given subsidies of :
+ "HK$24,000 for a 1-person household, and hk$56,000 for a 5-person household" to leave- as one-off "emergency assistance"
+ "We will take care of these residents, no matter what," said the URA
+ The payment is intended to cover one year's worth of rent

Those who are living on the Rooftops of URA buildings are getting it. But those on private dwellings "will get nothing."

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
AGENTS in the Olympic/ TKT area
=====

There has been less interest (by postings) in this thread than I expected. But in case anyone does come over to TKT to have a look at property, I thought you might want to know this:

+ There are some new properties, at places like Park Ivy, which I think are selling okay. And you can still go and have a look at the show flat. Prices are in the region of $11,000-12,000 per sf (Gross), which I do not regard as cheap.

(Here are the average prices for Nearby property as reported by Centaline):

+ Central Park/Pk. Ave : $12,198, gross : $16,415, net sf (Effic.: 74.3%)
+ Island Harbourview-- : $11,207, gross : $14,962, net sf (Effic.: 74.9%)

Other modern properties are, newest to older: Park Summit, Imperial Cullinan, Hermitage, Florien Rise, Shining Heights, One Silversea, The Long Beach, HarborGreen, Hampton Place, and MetroHarborview.

+ All the big agents will be happy to help you to buy a new property (Park Ivy), or buy or rent a modern one (see list above)

+ If you want to Rent an older property, such as Cosmopolitan Estates, then Ricacorp and Midland will not help you. In fact, they don't know the places, and are discouraged from even showing them, or talking about them... Probably because they don't make as much money from renting them out or selling them.

+ The exception amongst the big agents is Centaline, which has an office on Ivy Street and will show properties in older properties, like the 39 year old Cosmopolitan. A modernised and clean 2BR flat there on a higher floor will cost you up to $10,000 per month to rent. Non modernised can be much cheaper, but remember "You get what you pay for." This compares with a minimum of maybe $16-18,000 (and they can be $20k or more) for 2BR flats in the modern buildings.

+ If you want to buy a property in an "nice" older building, like Cosmopolitan, then expect to pay $6,500 per sf or more. You will probably have more luck with one of the smaller agents. But not many of them have much stock. And the properties that are cheaper than $6.5K psf can be "pretty dire". Cosmo is probably the best, since it was refurbished 3 years ago, and has new elevators. Properties can vary a great deal. We saw some we liked (and bought one), and saw several that we would not want to own.

+ The main argument for the place is the convenient location. I timed my walk yesterday. From standing on the platform at Olympic, it took me just under 10 minutes to get inside our rental unit at Cosmo. Our other flat, which is in one of the modern buildings would be more than 10 minutes (maybe 12 or 13?), which is still not bad. If you consider the journey from Olympic to HK Station by MTR is under 10 minutes, the whole journey time is very short. Waiting for the train can be a big part of it. The pace of gentrification in the area continues to be very quick, and the coming XRL to China should help to maintain that.

traineeinvestor 6 yrs ago
@ OffThePeak


While I am not in the market for another flat at the moment, I appreciate you taking the time to put up such a detailed post. As/when the time comes to buy again, that kind of information will be extremely useful.

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 6 yrs ago
Trainee. Spend some time around Electric Road during the weekend (I live in this area). There are some new developments coming up around there by Henderson Land ("The H" -- or something equally demendted name -- on Gordon Road and the future Oil Street development by Cheung Kong. Note that they are both close to MTR stations Tin Hau and Fortress Hill. Also, note the bus stops outside Fortress Hill MTR and next to the Tin Hau MTR. Also close to the tram and within walking distance of Victoria Park, Causeway Bay and hipster-crazed Tai Hang. I would suggest looking at these areas between 9pm and 1pm to get an idea of how vibrant they have become. Many mainlanders also around as there are many hotels. Plus you have the markets and some good local schools to put a floor under prices. My daughter says if you are from Fujian province, you can get discount at the market stalls - so brush up your Hokkien.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
Thanks for the encouragement, TI.

I would agree that there is no rush, and this thread may be mainly for the future. However, there may be some folks that would consider older buildings in TKT as a convenient location for renting - and we are seeing an increase in the number of Western Expats showing up at restaurants on Ivy Street.

I think it would be great if other people would start threads like this on locations they know well. Obviously, Lloyd could do a great thread on the Fortress Hill area. I even made two trips there to have a look around, and would agree that there is some interesting gentrification happening there. I particularly like what is happening around Cocoon, and suggest people might like to ponder whether CC might be an engine for new company start-ups in that area, adding to the future vibrancy.

Also great, would be threads on: Sai Yun Pun, and YuenLong/KanSheungRoad

traineeinvestor 6 yrs ago
@ Loyd - thanks also.


I like the idea of having a thread for each of the different areas.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
Hing Yip Centre in Tai Kok Tsui sold for HK$88 million

Source: Sing Tao Daily

A local investor acquired the en bloc of Hing Yip Centre (興業中心) at 37 Beech Street in Tai Kok Tsui for HK$88 million in March 2013. The existing 14-storey industrial building covers a site area of about 1,800 sq ft. Given a total gross floor area of about 20,137 sq ft, the average price was 4,370 per sq ft. The site is zoned for Residential (Group E) use.

A reasonable price for an Industrial building

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
(Duplicated from the Main thread):

"What can you get for under $3 million?"

It took us a long search to find it...

You can get a nice modernised 2BR flat in an older building (just less than 40 years old) about 5 minutes walk from Olympic station in Tai Kok Tsui - and then rent it for more than 4% Gross Rental yield.

Here are some comparative figures:

"The TC/TKO Through Line" : using Tower 3, 30-C Flat Bank Valuations (mostly)
====
Area: Estate Name == : -04/14- : %-TKT : Flat== : BkValue : SFgr/net : PSF-net : Effic% : Yrs :
TKO : ParkC/ Cent.Hts. : $07,712 : 63.2% : T3-30C : $7.47 M : 899/691 : 10,810 : 76.9% : 10 :
TK-- : Tsui Woo Terr.-- : $11,936 : 97.9% : T3-25C : $6.07 M : 585/489 : 12,413 : 83.6% : 35 :
TKT : ParkAv/CentPark : $12,198 : 100.% : T3-30C : $12.3 M : 943/659 : 18,665 : 69.9% : 12 :
TsYi : Tierre Verde ---- : $09,628 : 78.9% : T3-30C : $8.90 M : 951/765 : 11,634 : 80.4% : 14 :
TCC : Caribbean Coast : $05,795 : 47.5% : T3-30C : $4.31 M : 680/507 : $8,501 : 74.6% : 11 :

(Adding in the property mentioned above):
TKT : "Older Building" - : $06,338 : 52.0% : XXhi-# : $2.70*M : 426/326 : $8,282: 76.5% : 38 :

Note: $2.70million was the purchase price. The bank valuation is now $2.9 million.


When you consider the location as well as the lower transactional cost (stamp duties, etc), as well as the yield, I think the purchase may make sense even in the current soft market. After all, where are you going to put your money?


I really do not get why anyone would pay $12,000 gross to buy an Old Flat in Taikoo Shing, when they can buy something nicer than that for maybe $7,000 psf in TKT. In the long run, which is going to be the better location?? At that differential, I will bet on TKT.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
UPDATE on TKT market (after speaking to several agents this evening.)

Bank valuations of modern flats in the TKT area have been cut be another 1-2% in the past week or so. Older, and cheaper flats have been left unchanged, and agents report that there is still strong demand for flats with a price tag under $3-3.5 million.

MetroHarborView (MHV) flats are now being sold at prices maybe 5-8% off the peak. And the latest sales suggest an average price in MHV of about: $8,000-8,500 psf, Gross, and $11,500-12,000 psf, Net. That means that some 2BR flats of 477sf can now be had at under $4 million. Demand is expect to be very strong if prices drop another 5-10%. At $7,500 psf, the 477sf - 2BR flat in MHV would cost under $3.6 million, and would probably be an excellent buy, assuming the HK property market is not going into freefall.

MHV chart: http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/9641/mhv.png

One flat was sold at around $7,300 psf already, but that was the 16th floor, and in the Tower right next to the noisy highway, and where sounds can be heard from the funeral home - which is very unattractive to the Chinese.

Minimum rents for the smaller 2BR flats in MHV, are probably about $12,000 per month. This is close to the $10,000/mo. for modernised 2BR flats at Cosmo Estates, but some people prefer the layouts on the older flats, with larger living rooms.

Let's see, what these MHV figures mean:
$12,000 Rent / $3.816 Mn price = 3.77% Gross yield

(The older flat we bought recently is now cleaned up and ready to rent. We had an offer at $10K, but the tenant wanted to start later than the 3-4 weeks that we would allow for a delay in starting the lease. I do scratch my head, and wonder why people seek to view vacant flats when they still have two months before they need to move. Seems like a waste of time, since few landlords would want to keep a nice flat empty for so long.)

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
From TI:

"Interesting small piece in today's Standard about a "veteran investor" buying some small units in old buildings near West Kowloon (below HKD4 million)."
== ==

It does not surprise me - since I think it could be a Buyer who wants property near the XRL. Friends who have researched such tings more than I, say the big price rise often starts about two years before the project is completed.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
What is Express Rail Link? (XRL)

====

"The 26-km long Hong Kong Section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link (Express Rail Link, or XRL) runs from West Kowloon in Hong Kong to the boundary of Hong Kong and Shenzhen. The Express Rail Link will connect with the 16,000-km National High-speed Railway Network and will enhance Hong Kong's role as the southern gateway to the Mainland. Construction of the Express Rail Link commenced in January 2010, with completion targeted for 2015."


(Following a period of trial operation, the passenger service is planned for the second half of 2015.)

===

/see: http://www.expressraillink.hk/en/home/


Estimated Journey Time

Between Hong Kong and Futian, Shenzhen: 14 minutes

Between Hong Kong and Shenzhen North--: 23 minutes

Between Hong Kong and Guangzhou South: 48 minutes


The Terminus in West Kowloon, with convenient linkage to Kowloon Station and Austin Station, will be well connected to the Tung Chung Line, the Airport Express Line and the West Rail Line. The Public Transport Interchange, located at the north of the Terminus, will be only a short walk away, providing simple connection to bus and mini-bus facilities. A taxi rank will be contained within the West Kowloon Terminus.


This image will give you some idea of the distances involved: (XRL to TKT, that "green" building at the Top is Park Summit whilst under construction):


http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/9535/xrltotkt.jpg

traineeinvestor 6 yrs ago
Those times are certainly going to be quicker than driving (depending on how far your destination is from the terminus in Guangzhou).

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 6 yrs ago
XRL is great but I'm split on how beneficial it is for the HK property market. It should support the really top end flats in West Kowloon but, unless you will regularly use the service, I can't see how useful it would be on a day-to-day basis. I suppose it can't do any harm.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
(For the Record here - As Previously reported on the Main thread):

VERY SLOW - But not so slow as reported

The previous information that I got from an agent in the TST / Olympic station area and reported here was wrong. I met another agent over the weekend and she told me that she did not believe the slowdown in sales was nearly as much as I had been told. So I said I would check. And I have done that now.

From Modern buildings in the Olympic area the Average for 2012 was 80 Sales transactions per month. Sales are running far below that now, but nothing like as low as the first agent had told me.

Following summarises the data. Which has basically been slowing since the beginning of the year, and more since the "double whammy" in late February. In April, the Centaline data showed 22 Sales, down 72% from the 2012 average, not the 90%+ I had been told by the first agent.

Property--: 2012 : J-Apr'13
per month
========
MODERN
Metro H.V. : 30.6 : 10.5: - 65.7 %
Park Ave.. : 11.4 : 10.0: - 12.3 %
Island H.V : 10.6 : 5.8- : - 45.3 %
Harb. Grn. : 8.9- : 5.0- : - 43.8 %
Hamp. Pl.. : 4.6- : 2.8- : - 39.1 %
Long Bch. : 3.1- : 2.8- : - 9.8 %
Other ----- : 10.4 : 5.9- : - 43.3%
=============

Olym.Area 79.6 Sales

2013 Jan : 54 : - 32.2% vs. 2012 Ave.
----- Feb. : 59 : - 25.9%
----- Mar. : 36 : - 54.8%
----- Apr . : 22 : - 72.4%
=======

Jan-Apr. : 42.8 : -46.2%
=====
Property--: 2012 : J-Apr'13

OLDER
Cosmo Est : 5.6- : 4.8- : - 14.3 %
Charm. Gd. : 4.3- : 3.0- : - 30.2 %
Prosp. Gd. : 2.5- : 1.0- : - 60.0 %

Note: Prosperous Gardens is in the Kowloon Station area

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
(For the Record here):

Some Estates have already shown big drops:
http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/5096/40988363.png

METRO HARBOUR VIEW : in Tai Kok Tsui

Top. : $9,440 - 2013/02/03
Low : $8,253 - 2013/05/05
Chg.: $1,187 / - 12.6 %
===
Latest $8,311 - 2013/05/12

This one, MHV, could drop to $8,000 or lower, but it is possible
that the bulk of the drop (for this year) has already occurred.
Discounts are most likely when Sellers are fearful, as now.
So buyers could pull down a bargain in coming weeks and months
with lowball bids.
====

/ Centaline index : : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm
/ Historical Data- : : http://202.72.14.52/p2/cci/SearchHistory.aspx

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
The Coronation - near the future HEART of HK ?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx1Rx7fAGN4

=== ===


(as posted elsewhere, in response to)

Slideshow- Changing HK:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323978104578332443053840664.html?mod=WSJAsia_hps_RIGHTTopCarousel_1#slide/1


The HEART of the Hong Kong SAR is moving away from Central and away from HK Island.


It is probably now on the Star Ferry, and may wind up in Kowloon - probably Kowloon Station or maybe Tai Kok Tsui (TKT.)


The XRL (Express Train to China) and WK Culture District will solidify that shift to Kowloon. Mid-levels may wind up as "an old Grand Dame" - a fading, but still expensive backwater.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
(For the record here):

"I'm still new to HK so maybe my opinion does not count, but I went to a fair number of popular HKI residences and they were all terrible dumps. Belchers, Merton, Kornhill, etc - you could not pay me to live in the apartments I saw..."

- Lucane, on the Main property thread

Sure - that's HK Island.

The brain-dead folk who live there refer to Kowloon as the "dark side", and refuse to visit there, creating a barrier which allows those who are more open minded to cross the harbor (paying less than a cab for a quick MTR ride), and live better for less money.

And this stupidity is supported by the Expat Estate Agents, who make bigger commissions on those crappy-but-expensive flats than they ought to be getting for pushing expats into over-priced "luxury" flats in crowded Mid-Levels.

Those of us who live in Kowloon, or the NT are laughing
=== ===

(2)
Putting on my geek hat, here's the actual data:

Mid-levels, and Hong Kong Island are weak

Week : CCLI : TaikSh. : RobinPl: Clovell // Isl.Harb : ParkA : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC :
==== .
07/07: 119.69: 10,464 : 13,387 : 23,749 / 10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 :
06/30: 121.88: 12,021 : 13,502 : 23,950 / 10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 :
Peak
03/17: 123.66: 12,302 : 16,180 : 23,926 / 11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 :
YrEnd
12/30: 115.78: 11,665 : 14,985 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 :
======
Versus
YrEnd +3.28%: -10.3%: -10.7%: +5.81%/ -2.84%: +6.80%: +13.1%: -1.10%: -1.17%: +3.04%
Peak- - 3.21%: -14.9%: -17.2%: - 0.74%/ -10.6%: -3.34%: +3.44%: -1.06%: -0.97%: - 3.18%

Look at those HUGE drops in Taikoo Shing and Robinson Place, down -14.9%, and -17.2% from the peak.

Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung, is basically tracking the index, some 3% ahead of year-end, but 3% below the peak.

The real outperforming area seems to be Kowloon Central, where the Express Train to China will be completed in about 2 years time. Two properties (Sorrento and The Arch), were hovering around peak prices, while The Waterfront was more than 3% ABOVE the price at 3/17, when the Centaline Index hit its peak. Two properties in the Olympic area were mixed with Park Avenue outperforming the index since year-end by almost 4%, but Island Harborview, which is a longer walk from the XRL, down, but only -2.8% off year-end prices.

Lloyd might accuse me of confusing him with the facts.

kmn911 6 yrs ago
Hi OffThePeak

thanks for this post,

I think it's been the most informative piece I've read in HK so far.

I'm been seriously thinking of buying a place at the end of this year, and 3million fits my budget.

My own research lead me to Yau Ma tei and Shau Kei Wan.

I work in Central too, and wanted to be near a MTR that can get me there in 30-35mins door to door.

If anyone else has any suggestion please post, or start a new thread for another area as suggested

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
Send me a PM, kmn.

And I might be able to tell you more.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
(Duplicate Post - outting possible misinformation):


""Luxury homes around Kowloon Station, in West Kowloon, and Olympic Station, in Tai Kok Tsui, have been the most catastrophic areas where the vendors lost money in transactions" as per The Standard's article.."


That's a crazy comment.

I reckon I follow the market here closer than whomever wrote that.


The only thing that I know of that which could support a comment like that are:


1. Some price drops at The Long Beach after the GFC, because "Stanley's Ho 4th wife" and some mainlanders panic sold some flats here at a loss in 2009, and


2. SHKP's Imperial Cullinan was overpriced when it was launched, and it was bought mainly by Mainlanders, and many are now eager to sell, and they can only do it at sizeable losses.


Other than these two stories, one of which is ancient news by now, I don't know what would support a soundbite like that. If anyone knows better, please let me know what you have heard.


"Olympic station is more volatile due to mainlanders holding to majority of the property."


Not true anymore, if it was once true. Except for maybe at Imperial Cullinan - which most locals found overpriced. But Mainlanders thought it had better views and was located closer to Kowloon Station, and the XRL train than it really is. If you could visit the site, and know where it was, you were less likely to make that mistake.


Here is a very misleading advertising video from the time of the IC launch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3dJw2gYjbQ


You would never know that those who live in high floors next door at The Long Beach can look South over the top of Imperial Cullinan and see Elements Mall at Kowloon Central and the (coming) XRL Station. Yet one of those higher flats at TLB can be purchased for HKD 12,000 psf, Gross, while people paid HK 40,000 psf and more for penthouses that look up at those neighboring flats.


This was a pinnacle of misleading advertisement, and may be one reason the laws about how new flats are sold were changed.

OffThePeak 6 yrs ago
THE ROUTE of the XRL (Express Train):


(In Cantonese):

Part 1 / 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9BR37t66Ck

Part 2 / 2

[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROtaAhnzmgY[/media]


(all images):

Promotional Video for High speed Rail travel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ix7Av9PEa-8

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Tai Kok Tsui - Cosmopolitan Estate

Some pretty healthy prices have been achieved in Cosmopolitan Estates this month :


Date District Estate Price Price per sq.ft. Address

2013-08-27 Sell$2.60M @$6667 390 TAI KUNG BUILDING--BLOCK D 1#/F Room 10 History

2013-08-21 Sell$3.12M @$8211 380 TAI YICK BUILDING--BLOCK M 1#/F Room 5 History

2013-08-20 Sell$2.73M @$6067 450 TAI FU BUILDING--BLOCK A 4/F Room 1 History

2013-08-16 Sell$2.61M @$7210 362 TAI YING BUILDING--BLOCK N 9/F Room

----------

Average of 4 transactions: @$7039/psf (Gross) = A new monthly High

===

Link: http://eng.data.28hse.com/datarecord2555.html


The average price is a Record high, thanks to one transaction at over $3 million, which is the first I have seen at that level. I reckon that it was renovated in a nice way. The unrenovated flats are rather unappealing, but some of the renovated ones are renting for $9,000-$10,000 monthly, and attracting a new class of tenant to the building. The space is similar size to Park Summit, but much cheaper to rent.


Many new restaurants have opened in the area, and the gradual gentrification is continuing

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
TKT Update

====

One property we are following closely in Cosmo. Estates, TKT.

Look at the dramatic changes in valuations:


Date --- : CCLindex : HSBC val. : BOC val. : HangSeng :

01/20/13 : 118.38 : $ 2.82 m : $ 2.56 m :

09/08/13 : 121.94 : $ 2.93 m : $ 2.79 m : $ 2.92 m :

=========

Pct.Change : + 3.01 % : + 3.90 % : + 8.98 % : + ??? %


I don't have the figure, but from memory, the Jump

in the Hang Seng valuation was MORE than in BOC.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
I want to make a clarification on the post above.


Jake Van Der Camp wrote a nice piece in Sunday's news about how Smaller (and cheaper) Flats have gone on rising in price (rapidly!) while Larger (an more expensive) flats have stagnated in price.


I suppose we can blame the upscaled Taxes for that.


Anyway, I think the rise in this particular flat may have more to say about the market demand for small flats (with low taxes on them), rather than the Tai Kok Tsui /Olympic market in particular.


(I thought this clarification was needed. But I do not rule out a Kowloon Station and Olympic Station relative Upgrade in prices, as we get closer to the completion of the XRL in late 2015 - only two years away now.)

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Interesting.

Hang Lung have put more "new" flats in The Long Beach up for sale.


These are in Tower 7, and have better views and are less noisy than the Tower 8 flats sold a few months ago. They have posted the prices, but it will be interesting to see how they compare.


I like living in the place, and think the clubhouse is especially great. Anyone who has questions can send me a Message, and I will try to answer



OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Just spoke to an agent here in TKT - about the possibility of renting a 1 BR modern flat in the area. The situation was described as being "tight."


At $12,000 monthly, there may be nothing available.


$13,000 might get a studio in Park Summit


$14,000 might get a 1 BR in I-Home, or maybe a less desirable flat in Metro Harbour view.


These prices seem to be up perhaps 5-10% from where they were 6 months ago.


=== ===

(in Edit):

Checking Centaline's transaction reports for the last 6 weeks,

Most transactions are between $33 and $38 per sf.

Which suggests, for the smaller flats

330 sf x$33 : $ 11,000 - x$38 : $12,500

458 sf x$33 : $ 15,000 - x$38 : $17,500

==

Floor plans: http://s3pictures.gohome.com.hk/images/listing_photo/640/3033/3969447.jpg

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Latest valuation... in early October


Our old TKT property is now fetching a bank valuation which is 12.2% more than we paid in January.


It seems that it is possible to make money in this strange and stagnant market. (!

Loyd Grossman is Miss Venezuela 5 yrs ago
OTP. No one knows what the price is since speculators left - therefore no one is selling and prices keep on rising.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Lloyd,

You are wrong there.

There still IS A MARKET for cheap flats, the one's where HK ID holders pay a small tax.


This is the main reason prices are firm - it has more to do with the low taxes, than the TKT location, close to the XRL


The XRL effect may or may not be in the price yet. My guess is that it is not fully priced in. And there will be some relative strength in Kowloon station, Yaumatei, and Olympic station.


But maybe LGMV is right, and it will be hard to see.


Next week's launch (is my timing right) of The Austin in Kowloon Station may reveal something more

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
THE REAL WINNERS of the Property Game at nearby Kowloon Station


(excerpt from the Main thread):


http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/151878/hk-developers-game:-cut-prices?/


Sandy Li's last spot of advice is for buyers to look at the secondary market, which is more transparent than the primary market.


I am not sure that I agree completely with the last line in the article:

"Cutting prices is the only option available in the secondary market."


I know what she meant. But there's another option, and that is: Sitting and waiting for the Excess supply in the secondary market to be absorbed. And that is exactly what the Potential Seller seem to be doing.


It has been my contention all along that: The Developers would absorb the brunt of the BSD and DSD - they had to, in order to get so many sales done quickly.


Now those buyers who want to own New or almost New properties in the area of Kowloon Station, where the XRL is opening in two years time, will soon have no option but to turn to the secondary market - since all the New properties will have been sold.


The price will then be set by the Balance of Supply and Demand, without the overhang of New properties to be released - There will be almost nothing left, once The Austin is sold out.


Who will be the real winners in this game?


Surprisingly for some, it might be the Seller in the Secondary market, who could afford to wait - keeping their properties rented or living in them, while the developers played out their tricks and got rid of the supply overhang.


OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
(From the Record here):


A Neat Trick: LB is now selling at a PREMIUM to 2nd Hand



(I suppose the agents aren't telling their clients this,

because of the greater commissions they get from New Properties.

The crazy thing is:

Now the agent must "Sell" the property, and

then Hope the client wins the lucky draw to make a sale):





Not long ago, The Long Beach had 1,000 vacant flats to sell.



+ 80 are gone at 18% discounts to List prices

+ 60 are now on offer* at 16% discounts to List.



Most of the Remaining flats have "List" prices well above secondhand,

and the premium of List to secondhand is MORE than the discount.



=====

*HL has planned a great "trick" for property buyers.

They are getting investors to focus on the discount, not the actual list prices, or prices net of discount.

This trick will work, if people keep buying thinking they are getting a bargain because of the big discount.



But guess what: the LIST prices in Towers 7 and 8 are so high, even after a big discount, they will be paying

something ABOVE the second hand prices in the other "older" Towers.



Here's the back-up for this statement:



"older" towers (Towers 3,5,6): Originally launched in Oct. 2007, and later



THESE ARE LIST PRICES:

Flat.No: BkOfChina: List.Price / Net = Per SFnet = Premium to Bank Valuation

======

(T3,5,6)

t3.30b: $7.440m : $8.401m / 550 = $15,275

t5.31c: $7.720m : $8.834m / 569 = $15,525

= Aver: $7.580m : $8.618m / 560 = $15,389 : 13.7% to 2nd Hand ($13,535 BofC)

====

(Tw.8)

t8.29b: ======= : $9.056m / 550 = $16,465

t8.29e: ======= : $8,761m / 550 = $15,929

t8.29f : ====== : $10.456m / 566 = $18,473

t8.32b: ======= : $9.110m / 550 = $16,564

t8.32e: ======= : $8.814m / 550 = $16,025

= Aver: ======= : $9.239m / 553 = $16,707 : 23.4% to 2nd Hand ($13,535 BofC)

(Tw.7)

t7.30b: ======= : $9.518m / 562 = $16,935

t7.30c: ======= : $8.943m / 569 = $15,717

t7.30e: ======= : $9.787m / 567 = $17,261

= Aver: ======= : $9.416m / 566 = $16,636 : 22.9% to 2nd Hand ($13,535 BofC)


So:

A 23% premium, less a 16% discount, means a 7% premium to secondhand prices !


Yet the sheeple keep buy "new" properties in TLB rather than the cheaper secondhand properties. It is a triumph for HL's clever marketing strategy.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Net 550 sf at below $3 Million - is not possible IMHO.

Unless it is in a very old undesirable walk-up.

(I would suggest to revise your price idea, or look elsewhere.)


$9,000 -$10,000 psf Net should be possible now, but supply is limited.

GW80 5 yrs ago
OTP, i'm looking to buy ~850sf net (3BR plus maid's room) in the Olympic area. Would you recommend the large units in the Long Beach? Seems each tower only has 1 large unit per floor. I assume the large units would have the best views though. Just trying to assess the best value within the Olympic area... grateful for any insight.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Best Views at TLB?


How much do you like sea views (and especially "industrial oriented", wet-facing seaviews?) If you like that, then: Yes, the 3BR's have the best views.


I have bet my own money on a high floor 2BR south-east facing view : very open with morning sun. But there are only a tiny handful of 2BR flats that have this sort of view, and IMHO they are under-valued, and maybe under-appreciated. If what I say resonates with you, then investigate carefully and you may find something good. But you will have to "get clever" with storage and space, since they are only 550 sf, net. The the layouts can be good in some towers.


If you go for a 3BR, you will have many choices, and the floor will not matter so much. But investigate the layouts and the views.


I think you should wait for a new batch, or try secondhand, since the better flats in the last batch have been sold already.


I like the location, and I think TLB will benefit from the XRL, which is a long walk, or a short cab ride from LB. This location should also been from whatever SHKP builds at Nam Cheong, especially if there is some good shopping there. The walk is not so far.

GW80 5 yrs ago
Thanks for the thoughts OTP. I definitely prefer facing SE too. I assumed that 3BR flats in TLB had "better views", because I understand developers typically position the larger flats within a development as such (and charge a premium).


Unfortunately, will need to focus on 850sf for a family of 4 plus a helper.


Would love to hold out for a 2nd hand discounted unit and renovate, but given I already own a flat, the stamp duty rebate + other sales incentives for primary launches could result in a cheaper total transaction cost.


I am also exploring Island Harbourview and One Silversea, but the larger flats tend to face the harbour towards Central and hence, are way out of budget. Nevertheless, I am also considering Waterfront/Sorrento units (although facing inland and the XRL construction site).

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
I don't think the new flats at TLB are any cheaper than secondhand.

I have made appropriate adjustments.


Have you a specific example in mind?


If you visit TLB (when I am around), I would be happy to chat with you in the clubhouse sometime. Send me a message to arrange

GW80 5 yrs ago
Sorry, i don't have a specific example in mind, but i figured a DSD rebate could save 8.5% in transaction costs (which I'd need to pay in the secondary market).


Thanks for the offer OTP. Things are quite busy with year end and the Christmas holiday, so I won't be actively looking for the next few weeks. I'll drop you a message when i resume the search. Cheers.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
For the record - Kowloon Station is outperform the rest of HK-SAR

(and also outperforming TKT)


CENTALINE price data


Week : CCLI / IslHarb : ParkAv : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.

==== . .

12/15: 118.61 /10,441 : 11,933 : 13,813 : 17,704 : 21,642 : 5,807 : 10,627

. . .

06/30: 121.88 /10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 : 12,021

. . .

03/17: 123.66 /11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 : 12,302

. . .

12/30: 115.78 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 : 11,665

====

Chg.s

1 year: +2.44% /+0.09% :+6.92% :+8.42%:+8.51%: -2.47% :-4.06% :-8.89%

VPeak: -4.08%/- 7.90% : -3.29% : - 0.89%:+8.58%: -2.27% :-9.84% :-13.6%

====

See how Kowloon Station is outperforming the averages

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Missed Opportunity?


I was looking seriously at buying an Industrial property in TKT


It was first offered at $3.2 Million, and then when "the round-eye" showed interest, the price mysteriously rose to $3.5 million, and I lost interest. I learned that it had subsequently been sold at $3.1 Million, and was not happy it had gone so cheap without having a better chance to buy it. This happened 3-4 months ago, I think it was.


I have just learned that it has now been resold at $4.1 million.


Who says you cannot make money in this market?

Lucane01 5 yrs ago
A market?


A 30% gain in 4 months... trading industrial buildings as if they were baseball cards... more of a casino / mania than an economic market.



As easy as it seems to gain big money on the way up, all the easier it will be to lose it all once momentum definitively swings the other way.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
It was undervalued, and in a bad state


The buyer must have made some improvements ... and flipped a much better looking property, in an up-an-coming neighborhood/


It was the Up-and-coming aspect that go me interested, and I suppose this shows how to play it. The flipper must have paid a 15% tax



GW80 5 yrs ago
OTP - Just FYI, I went to see the new unit launches at Long Beach Tower 7 . The 800sf net units had expectedly small bedrooms but seemed quite nice overall. Pricing was on the high side with D units asking around $13m. However, the agents told me that E units in Tower 3 were the same size and layout but cheaper at around $11m. The view is different facing north slightly sandwiched between 2 towers, and I believe you mentioned that units in Tower 3 were sold earlier, so there's wear and tear in common areas. Do you know of other considerations I might've missed?


OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Yes,

I think the Tower 3 units might be a relative bargain, if you can live with the views. I don't think the difference is worth $2 million. Probably not even worth $1 million. But that is a matter of personal taste.


As for "wear-and-tear", is there any difference at all? The flats were built at the same time. There's not much happening in the common areas that would cause significant damage.

Conte_Riccardo_III 5 yrs ago
OTP, if you come across bargains and won't buy yourself, please pm me :)


Thanks!

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Sometimes beauty is in the eye of the beholder.


I have had an eye for cheap properties (which I think is appropriate for a market like this which is vulnerable to downturns.) And usually when something is cheap, there is a reason for it. Some warts you can fix by removing them, and others you have to live with.


For instance, I think the "wart" of being off HK Island, is one that many people can happily live with, and enjoy the savings associated with living "on the dark side."


If you are looking to buy, you should first have some idea of what you are seeking:


Approximate budget?

Purpose: Own use, or investment?

(If you own use, then your own living requirements will matter hugely.)

Age of property, and sort of tenants you want?


These are just a few.


There are also other sorts of opportunities.


RESTAURANT TURN-AROUND

===================

A small Team of us are considering an investment in a Restaurant turnaround...


The restaurant now caters to a Chinese clientel, and would be revamped to try to get more expat customers. It is a short walk from Olympia Malls 1 and 2, and nearby are very expensive flats in places like Hermitage, Park Avenue, Florien Rise, Island Harborview, etc. The more wealthy people who live in those properties might happily spend as much as 2-3 times the current menu prices. But so far, they are unaware of "local alternatives", and just stay in the malls.


In return for walking out of the mall, and a few steps more, the restaurant clients will be a cheaper menu, and maybe a more interesting dining experience.


The Rent in this restaurant is less than 1/5 what it would be in the mall (I reckon), and so there is an opportunity to make the menu much cheaper. But I need some partners in this small investment, that will help to market the new-and-improved place, and bring friends.


If we are successful with a cheap small-ticket turnaround like this, we may later aim to have our own restaurant, once we have been through a successful learning experience.


At some stage, if property prices fall enough, we might even consider buying a suitable space. But that would be 1-2 years away probably. And we may find we like the restaurant game more than the property game. But we want to be a team of turnaround and marketing-oriented specialists now, not those pouring a $million+ into a new and untested restaurant concept.


We want a few more people to round out the team. We are especially keen to start in the TKT area, given the gentrification dynamics at work. And we prefer to have people who are familiar with the area, and can help to market a restaurant located there.


Two of my Team members have experience in restaurants, mostly successful, and I do not. So on this first one, I want to keep the investment small, and have team members who will add value mainly through market, design, or operational suggestions.


I am not expecting big profits. But we do expect to have fun, and learn something from the experience, while risking only small amounts.

GW80 5 yrs ago
OTP, apologies, I just assumed Tower 3 would have normal "wear and tear" from every day resident usage whereas Tower 7 would have been untouched with no units sold. I have not visited the Tower 3 flats yet, cause arranging an inspection requires placing a $300,000 cheque deposit to show sincere interest(although refundable). I'm quite intrigued but not completely sold on buying The Long Beach at this price point yet.


OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
$300,000?

That should not be necessary to see flats ?


How about the show flats. Surely, you can see those.



GW80 5 yrs ago
The show flats are in Tower 7 and didn't require a cheque deposit. However, the agent told me the $300,000 was needed to view the Tower 3 flats (refundable if I didn't like the flat). Perhaps Hang Lung wants to minimize disturbance to current residents.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
The Long Beach is making steady progress on selling the remaining "leftover" flats.


Two weeks ago, there were 17 flats still available. As of Saturday, it was down to just 10 flats, of which 3 were very high floor expensive units, at over $40 million.


There is only one "normal" E-flat left in Tower 3, from what I could see. (8th-floor).


I suppose people are waiting to see if Hang Lung will release another batch of "popular" units, that sell out quickly. Perhaps they will do that around Chinese New Year, at higher prices, if the market holds up well.


In the meantime, I would not be surprised to see some buyers snapping up secondhand flats, since the trend for the "new" ones has been steady price rises in each new batch.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
"Have they sold out the remaining units in TLB?" - Punter (on the CYL thread)


They were down to only 10 leftover flats, last time I checked - And it is probably less than that now. Some of those (at least 3), were very expensive ($40 Mn+) large flats at the top of the building - where I live. The rest, are lower floors: with poor layouts, or no views.


So among the 20 "new" flats* they are about to launch, may be some of the more desirable layouts, that are likely to sell fast. They may raise the price again. And I know that the secondary market at TLB is starting to stir again.


The funny thing is that one of the banks (HSBC) cut their bank evaluations when the first batch was released at big discounts to test the market. BofC mostly held their old prices. Now that the "new" properties are selling at higher and higher prices, you would have expected HSBC to put valuations back up. Last time I checked they had not done it yet.

=== ===


*In Edit:

I have seen the list. All 20 flats are D-Units in Tower 7. The floors involved range from 5D ($14,307K: $17,773psf-N, before discount) to 47D ($15,888K: $19,165psf-N.) And the next date of sale is Jan. 17th. HL is now collecting cheques for the lottery.


Price Lists: http://www.hanglung.com/en/hong-kong-properties/residential/the-long-beach-price-list.aspx

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
What does "ISOLATED" Mean in TKT?


(Reposted from the Manipulation thread):


Punter, your:

"8 minutes to Central? You must be talking by car, right?

From TLB to the Tung Chung Line MTR is already 5 to 8 minutes walk. The area is somewhat isolated."


That might be possible by car (in no traffic). But I was talking about the train journey.


From Central to Olympic is maybe 8 minutes, and 31 minutes to Tung Chung. In both places you have to add on the walk from the station to the property. The walk from Tung Chung station to Caribbean Coast (for instance) is much longer than from OS to TLB. So, if you are talking door to door, you might have to add and extra 35-40 minutes for a journey to Caribbean Coast. I have made loads of both journeys over the year, so I think my time estimates are pretty accurate.


People used to talk about a "long walk" from OS to TLB (or to Hampton Place), but then Imperial Cullinan was sold at very fancy prices, and I heard much less of that talk. In the long run, I think talk of "isolation" will gradually disappear as:


+ Kowloon station and Park Ave/Central Park/Hermitage (and their malls) become overwhelmed by mainland shoppers -especially on weekends, after the XRL is completed and the trains start running in late 2015. (The sort of overwhelming might look something like what you now see in Tung Chung's gateway mall now on weekends. It was not like that when we first moved to TC. I find it unpleasant to go there on weekends.)


+ Shopping malls are built at Nam Cheong, where the walk is only maybe 50% further than to Olympian-1's malls


+ A Seven-eleven and maybe a coffee shop and restaurants are opened along with the boutique hotel in the lower floors of One Silver Sea


If this all happens, as I expect it will then - TLB, IC, OSS and Hampton Place will be seen as "pleasantly quiet", rather than "isolated".


We are quite happy to stay put, where we are in TLB, since I see the developments that I have described as "extremely likely"... eventually.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Nam Cheong Development Details

Developer:
Joinyield Limited (subsidiary of Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited)

Residential GFA: Approx. 214,700 sq.m.

No. of Towers: 14
No. of Flats: Approx. 3,414
No. of Residential Storeys: 4 to 44

Retail GFA: Approx. 27,660 sq.m. (more than 12% of total!)

Expected Completion Date: By phases from 2017 - 2019
==
> http://www.mtr.com.hk/eng/properties/westrail_nc.html

Like WINGS eventually, I suppose


punter 5 yrs ago
TLB, Imperial Cullinan, One Silver Sea, Hampton Place are "isolated" and "lonely" developments by the water. Unlike Heng Fa Chuen, the promenade is quite "thin". The promised boutique hotel in One Silver Sea is nowhere to be seen for some time now. It's like a "ghost land" during some times of the day.


The Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung is certainly farther away from the train (maybe 5 minutes more of walking, but under a "roof"), but it seems there are more developments coming in the future because more space for development is available. TLB area on the other hand is like a dead end.


I'm not saying it's bad, I'm just saying it's not for everybody's liking.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
I dunno, punter


The "thin" promenade, as you call it, is pretty busy on weekends.

And a very nice place to jog during the week.


Certainly, it will become much busier when you can buy an ice cream or a coffee there. Presently, the main activity is either jogging, child-strolling, or fishing, depending on the time of the day.


The work towards completion of the boutique hotel is very slow, but I do see progress. And the places along the promenade are now for rent. Perhaps Sino needs to cut the "asking" rents a bit to bring some life to the area. Maybe they are waiting for the hotel to open. ( I think they should go ahead and open a Seven Eleven, just to see what happens.)


Checkout what is planned for nearby Nam Cheong (over 3,000 flats, and dozens of shops planned there- within an easy walk), and you will get an idea of the potential for the area. And keep in mind that one day, you should be able to cycle from TLB to the WKCC alongside the sea. Perhaps it will eventually be possible to cycle all the way from Nam Cheong along the sea. But they will need to first close the small container terminal.


That could make it one of the most popular places to live in Kowloon (or even in HK), especially as Kowloon station and old TKT become over-whelmed by mainland tourists, doing their final shopping before they hop on the Express train home.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
(I could not resist double-posting this comment from Lucane, and the response. His idea of the unattractiveness of present-day Causeway Bay fits my own. Will it really go on as now?)


"One day, not too distant in the future, the mainlanders will finally realize that Causeway Bay sucks and they'll go looking elsewhere in newer, cleaner shopping malls rather than on the dirty cracktown alleyways of Causeway Bay."


Checkout the near-empty luxury mall at Coronation.


It is 2 minutes walk to the coming XRL train terminus at Kowloon station. I think many mainlanders will rather do their immediate and last minute shopping there, and at Elements, rather than in Causeway Bay.


Actually one reason that I would suggest NOT BUYING at Kowloon station is there a real risk that the nearby malls will become over-crowded and therefore unpleasant.


Have a look at the Mall at Tung Chung on the weekend, and ask yourself if you would like to walk through those crowds everyday. Elements, and even the mall at Coronation may become like that.


In this version of the future, people may come to appreciate the relative quietude of seaside Olympic station.


This is only one future timeline, but a very possible one, I think.


Nam Cheong with its 3,300 new flats, and 27,000 sq meters of shopping (like Wings, I suppose) may become another overcrowded shopping paradise, and a very worthy alternative to Causeway Bay. I used to work in the World Trade Center there years ago, and I hate going there and fighting the crowds nowadays.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Artist's interpretation of what is coming to Nam Cheong:

http://www.hkchcc.org/namcheongproject.jpg

Remember the MTR stations, starting in Central, run like this:

Hong Kong Station
v
Kowloon Station
v
Olympic Station
v
Nam Cheong
v
Lai King - (and connection to Tsuen Wan line)
v v
(on to the airport)

Hey, who will need to go shopping in CWB at all?
Having said that, the Tung Chung line will eventually be extended to connect with Wanchai/Convention Centre, and Causeway Bay, and beyond

punter 5 yrs ago
Transportation in HK is quite convenient. Transport (for sightseeing and shopping) is not a big deal. Transport for school and work is.

OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
Yeah, I see your point.

But you are wrong with respect to mainland tourists who COME TO SHOP, not for working or for schools.


People who are coming off the XRL (from mainland China), or leaving by train soon, are going to want to shop where it is pleasant and convenient. (Look at all the customers brought by bus to Tung Chung.)


That economic factor will matter more than most here are contemplating imho.

Have you been to Canton Road?

Do you notice that a shop in CWB just sold for HK$1.38 million (a record!) per sf?


Is tourist oriented shopping good or bad for a neighborhood? I would say it is a mixed blessing. You want access to interesting shops, but not only the luxury (expensive) ones that are tourist traps. Kowloon station may be headed in that way when the XRL is finished. TKT is likely to remain a mixed neighborhood with shops catering mainly to residents - though with ongoing gentrification. I think that sort of mix (as in TST) is attractive. And TKT has been built differently, and will not have the over-crowding of TST - especially in the newer "Olympic" parts, built on landfill.



OffThePeak 5 yrs ago
(DUPLICATED - A conversation from AX's Main property thread)

"TKT is and will be the hub for mainlanders.."
(I suppose that is because of the XRL connection to mainland China - it will bring in mostly mainland folk, obviously)

I would agree with you, apart from two important things:

+ TKT will continue to have a closer connection to the airport - where virtually all of the foreign people coming to HK enter the SAR, and

+ The West Kowloon Cultural Center (WKCC) when it is finished, will attract international artists, and performers, and will also capture an international audience from all parts of HK. I can see many of those creative people preferring to live in Kowloon station, TKT, Nam Cheong or other places along the TC line (Tung Chung?) rather than Mid-Levels, ... on the "back side" of Hong Kong (haha - just kidding with that name - It will continue to be a popular place to live, but not for everyone.)

OffThePeak 4 yrs ago
In the last few days, HSBC increased their Bank Valuations in the TKT area by about 3%,

this reflects the upwards creep in actual transaction prices over the last 3-4 weeks.

HSBC has just caught up with that.

I would expect Bank of China to make an upwards adjustment soon too.

Their valuations are now generally below HSBC

OffThePeak 4 yrs ago
A Hot Wave of Sales at Long Beach
=======
(per Midland)
Block Floor : - Date -- : $Price- / Net = per Sq.Ft : Gross = per Sq.Ft
TW5 : Mid. : 30/01/15 : $8.68M / 558 = $15,556 : 742 = $11,698
TW6 : Mid. : 30/01/15 : $8.28M / 546 = $15,165 : 742 = $11,159
TW5 : Low : 26/01/15 : $8.68M / 556 = $15,612 : 743 = $11,682
Tw3 : High : 25/01/15 : $8.65M / 549 = $15,756 : 741 = $11,673
TW5 : Mid. : 25/01/15 : $8.80M / 564 = $15,603 : 752 = $11,702

Nearby
Park Avenue/ Cent. Park - in TKT :
http://s273.photobucket.com/user/jimolsen2/media/CentralPk_zps83176321.png.html

Meantime, a down week in the CL Index

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.
Numb.: ( #1) (#2,4): ( --#6): (--#7): (--#8) : (--#9)/ (--#7) (--#8): (-#12) : (--#13): (-#14) (#-3) : (#21)
==== . .
01/25: 134.03 135.01: 15,587 : 19,554 : 24,903 : 22,368 /11,378: 12,466 : 13,970 : 17,147 : 21,797 : 6,538 : 12,627 :
01/18: 134.64 135.73: 15,608 : 19,581 : 24,936 : 22,398 /11,366: 12,311 : 13,997 : 17,179 : 21,838 : 6,079 : 13,586 :

Private flat supply hits 8-year high - SCMP
Number of completed units up 89pc last year
+ 15,700 units completed in 2015
+ construction started on 17,300 units, up from 14,100 in 2013
+ starting the transition to a period of more sustainable flat supply
+ some 74,000 new homes expected over next 3-4 years (74,000/4 = 18,500 per year)
+ Supply expected to be maintained at 15,000 -18,000 in the next few years

OffThePeak 4 yrs ago
URA takes Tai Kok Tsui hotel plan to developers
2 April 2015
Excerpt

The Urban Renewal Authority (URA) has invited expressions of interest for the development of a hotel in the Tai Kok Tsui area of the city.

The 7,814-square-foot site at the junction of Anchor Street and Fuk Tsun Street will be redeveloped into a 23-storey hotel providing 200 rooms on top of a two-storey podium for commercial and back of house facilities, according to the URA. The site will yield a total gross floor area of 70,278 sq ft.

A URA spokeswoman said the site was originally designated for residential use but the authority obtained Town Planning Board approval to change the land use to a hotel.
. . .
Chan estimated the Tai Kok Tsui site could be worth HK$7,000 per square foot.

OffThePeak 3 yrs ago
New Mall and Office project: Eltanin Square Mile (in TKT)

2353.jpg

kcDgx4sN5q_large.jpg
An office project of that name has been launched and is virtually sold out - at prices like HKD 18-20,000 psf, Net

That's pretty fancy in weak market

(old article)
Henderson Land plans to build new mall in Tai Kok Tsui
22 Jul 2015

Henderson Land (0012) is planning to launch a shopping complex with 60 shops in Tai Kok Tsui as early as 2017.

The redevelopment project, named Square Mile, will span Li Tak, Ka Shin and Kok Cheung streets.

The project will be developed in 4 phases with a total construction area of 0.2 million sq. ft. or approximately 60 store positions. The first phase is planned to launch in the first half of 2017. The construction floor area amounted to approximately 42,000 sq. ft. with 19 shops with a GFA of 42,000 sq ft and scheduled for an opening in the first half of 2017. Some HK$250 million will be set aside for development of phase one and two.

The developer has started to approach potential tenants, mostly chain eateries. “They are interested [in our offers]. And the rents they are willing to pay are close to our expectation,” said Henderson portfolio leasing department general manager Patrick Sit Pak-wing.

OffThePeak 3 yrs ago
New Mall and Residential project: Eltanin Square Mile (in TKT)

Estate Page : http://www1.centadata.com/pih09/pih09/estate.aspx?type=2&code=EESPWWPAWS&lang=eng&source=data

http://s3pictures.gohome.com.hk/images/newdevelopment_photo/flatinfo/2353.jpg

http://i2.28hse.com/en/utf8/developer/d276/selfcapture/kcDgx4sN5q_large.jpg
Eltanin‧Square Mile
The developer of Eltanin‧Square Mile is Henderson Land Development Company Limited. It provides 2 towers and 448 apartments. The area of these apartment is from 172 to 601 square feet and designed into studio to 2-bedrooms. Some apartments also with flat roof.
==
> more: http://www.28hse.com/en/utf8/developer-276.html

A new project of that name has been launched and is virtually sold out - at prices like HKD 18-20,000 psf, Net
That's pretty fancy in weak market


(old article)
Henderson Land plans to build new mall in Tai Kok Tsui
22 Jul 2015
Henderson Land (0012) is planning to launch a shopping complex with 60 shops in Tai Kok Tsui as early as 2017.

The redevelopment project, named Square Mile, will span Li Tak, Ka Shin and Kok Cheung streets.

The project will be developed in 4 phases with a total construction area of 0.2 million sq. ft. or approximately 60 store positions. The first phase is planned to launch in the first half of 2017. The construction floor area amounted to approximately 42,000 sq. ft. with 19 shops with a GFA of 42,000 sq ft and scheduled for an opening in the first half of 2017. Some HK$250 million will be set aside for development of phase one and two.

The developer has started to approach potential tenants, mostly chain eateries. “They are interested [in our offers]. And the rents they are willing to pay are close to our expectation,” said Henderson portfolio leasing department general manager Patrick Sit Pak-wing.

OffThePeak 3 yrs ago
Special situation in TKT

In catching up with the agents in the area, I learned of something I regard as a special situation.

The numbers look something like this - on the tenanted property

Price : HKD 2.98 Million
Rent : $9,500 x 12 :
Mgmt: $1,350 (approx)
Net R: $8,150 x 12 :

This is a new-ish property, completed in about 2010.

If you want to know more, send me a Personal Message.
(it is not really suitable for me, since I would have to pay a 15% tax to buy it.
I would rather wait, and see if the tax will be eliminated or cut in 1-2 years time.)

gdep 3 yrs ago
OTP,

Dont see anything special in this. If you mortgage 3million with a downpayment of 60% , 2.5% rates and 25 years .. EMI will be 8K .. which is similar to what you net.

Given the downward trend why take a risk.

We invested in a walk up which nets us 5K/month more than the EMI effectively subsidising the rent. will do one more under spouses name if we can get a similar margin (5k/month).

OffThePeak 3 yrs ago
"Given the downward trend why take a risk."

Not everyone is as bearish as I am.
And for those who think the market has no more than 10-20% to go on the downside, this might be a reasonable buy:

+ At HKD 2.98 million, it is already the cheapest in the building. Similar flats were sold at HKD 3.5 or 3.6 million, I believe, just a few months ago.

+ The agent thinks she might be able to negotiate something like 2.8 - 2.88 million. I would try $2.72 million, and maybe pay a bit more after I see the actual property. At $2.8 million, the yield is: 3.49% Net, after the mgmt fee That would be: $2.8 million / 335 = $8,358 per sqft, and real bargain for a modern flat in that improving location. (This is for reasons that I would prefer to reveal in an PM than in this public forum.)

Calculations: If sold at HKD 2.80 Million
Then, : 447 sf ($6,264 psf-Gr.): at 75%- 335 sf ($8,358 psf-Net)
%Yield: 4.07% Gross, / 3.49% Net

+ It is already rented, and the existing tenant invested some significant capital - so they would probably stay, and might even pay a touch more on renewal. A 3,5% net yield is well about what you can make in a bank deposit

+ I am bullish on the TKT area, especially after the Express Train to China begins operation in probably 2-3 years time. When that starts there will be an estimated 90,000 people a day going through Kowloon station to China. Some of the visitors will want property an easy taxi ride away, I reckon.

+ The gentrification that I anticipated when I started this thread, is more and more evident every day.

These positive aspect may buoy up the price of this property, even if the general market is weak.

GDEP, this is a modern building. Walk-ups are harder to sell. But having said that, I would be happy to do a tour of the area with you and Duracelll sometime. Maybe you can see what walk-up opportunities may exist there/here.

gdep 3 yrs ago
Thanks OTP,

Duracell , this was in central. I first saw the ad on Asiaxpat , i usually search for <4million properties in Centra/Sheung Wan area. you will get about 330 sq ft net apartments for that price.. usually about 30-40 years old.. bank valuations are very close to asking price or you negotiate to bank valuations or lower ..i can share the agents name if you want ..

these locations tend to attract young professionals / couples in financial sector who work on HK island..

OffThePeak 3 yrs ago
Yeah, I responded..
Some people were put off by the notion of living in that particular building,
and I am not recommending that anyone consider that particular living arrangement.
But for someone who needs an office it may work.

Keeping an eye on the older buildings for owner-occupiers, you can find some decent options for around
HKD 10,000 psf, Net.

This may get cheaper to say HKD 8000-9000 if we see the 3-5 year slide that I am expecting. But for those who are less bearish, and think this drop has run its course, looking around now may make sense, since this area may benefit from rising demand after the Express Train begins operation


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